bnschwartz
@bnschwartz.bsky.social
I try to share some ideas but unfortunately they come with typos.
How to undermine the system and the guardrails...
December 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
How to undermine the system and the guardrails...
The comments in the "Dallas Fed Energy Survey" are amazing, for example -> "The level of regulation is increasing because there is less human input to rules and regulations." www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
Lingering pessimism, uncertainty further weigh on oil and gas activity
Activity in the oil and gas sector edged lower in fourth quarter 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
www.dallasfed.org
December 18, 2025 at 5:30 AM
The comments in the "Dallas Fed Energy Survey" are amazing, for example -> "The level of regulation is increasing because there is less human input to rules and regulations." www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
People are spending and repaying their credit card balances, but some softness can be seen in the current data.
December 15, 2025 at 7:03 PM
People are spending and repaying their credit card balances, but some softness can be seen in the current data.
Data from Expedia -- Something I think that is interesting.
December 4, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Data from Expedia -- Something I think that is interesting.
A great listen — podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Age-Old Contest Between Land and Sea
Podcast Episode · The Foreign Affairs Interview · 11/20/2025 · 34m
podcasts.apple.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:06 AM
A great listen — podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
something to think about...
November 20, 2025 at 5:46 PM
something to think about...
October-25 Master Trust Scorecard
November 18, 2025 at 4:44 PM
October-25 Master Trust Scorecard
Someone is holding the bag - Will be interesting to learn who one of these days (funds, consumers, US banks via lending to NDFIs, Japanese banks).
November 15, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Someone is holding the bag - Will be interesting to learn who one of these days (funds, consumers, US banks via lending to NDFIs, Japanese banks).
Assuming this is correct, why are you, as a bank executive selling...per S&P - "The median price-to-adjusted tangible book value (TBV) for the banking industry was 131.2% as of Oct. 31, down from 141.9% at Sept. 30, marking the lowest month-end valuation since 128.1% at May 30. "
November 13, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Assuming this is correct, why are you, as a bank executive selling...per S&P - "The median price-to-adjusted tangible book value (TBV) for the banking industry was 131.2% as of Oct. 31, down from 141.9% at Sept. 30, marking the lowest month-end valuation since 128.1% at May 30. "
Thought this was interesting data -- link to the paper was provided by Carl Tannenbaum @northerntrust.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Thought this was interesting data -- link to the paper was provided by Carl Tannenbaum @northerntrust.bsky.social
per Bloomberg: Walmart reportedly takes in about 25% of SNAP shoppers' grocery dollars annually, with Kroger and Albertsons at 8% and 6%. -- The graph below is from Barclays Research...You can actually see when SNAP changes were announced.
October 31, 2025 at 11:00 PM
per Bloomberg: Walmart reportedly takes in about 25% of SNAP shoppers' grocery dollars annually, with Kroger and Albertsons at 8% and 6%. -- The graph below is from Barclays Research...You can actually see when SNAP changes were announced.
per KKR - "There are 19k private equity funds in the US as compared to 14k McDonald's restaurants in the US." -- If ~19k PE funds exist, how is it possible for this industry to continue to outperform the market, find that many deals and have losses below IG bond default rates...Question for myself.
October 22, 2025 at 1:09 AM
per KKR - "There are 19k private equity funds in the US as compared to 14k McDonald's restaurants in the US." -- If ~19k PE funds exist, how is it possible for this industry to continue to outperform the market, find that many deals and have losses below IG bond default rates...Question for myself.
I just think this map is intresting - I wonder if this impacts retirment migration (and local housing market prices)....mainly speakign about the expected/current ACA cuts?
October 20, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I just think this map is intresting - I wonder if this impacts retirment migration (and local housing market prices)....mainly speakign about the expected/current ACA cuts?
People are paying their credit card balances, but we are starting to see a little bit of payment rate softness.
October 15, 2025 at 4:00 PM
People are paying their credit card balances, but we are starting to see a little bit of payment rate softness.
I guess they do understand shit…
October 9, 2025 at 9:45 PM
I guess they do understand shit…
Random thought: Why current housing data is funky: soft/shit job market, affordability low (esp at $1MM+), and the refi-activity is dead until rates fall to ~4.5% (require ~75bps before refi to be breakeven on 30Y).
October 8, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Random thought: Why current housing data is funky: soft/shit job market, affordability low (esp at $1MM+), and the refi-activity is dead until rates fall to ~4.5% (require ~75bps before refi to be breakeven on 30Y).
Yes, I totally understand why you would advocate for 200bps in cuts in the next 12-months s/
September 26, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Yes, I totally understand why you would advocate for 200bps in cuts in the next 12-months s/
Thought this was interesting - Data from NAR - "Sales of Homes priced $100-250k fell (1%), while Homes priced $250-500k were +1% higher, $500-750k were +3% higher, $750k-1MM rose +8%, and Homes priced $1MM+ rose +8%."
September 25, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Thought this was interesting - Data from NAR - "Sales of Homes priced $100-250k fell (1%), while Homes priced $250-500k were +1% higher, $500-750k were +3% higher, $750k-1MM rose +8%, and Homes priced $1MM+ rose +8%."
Data from Cox -- Not hard to understand why lease rates are going up.
September 16, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Data from Cox -- Not hard to understand why lease rates are going up.
Aug-25 Master Trust data...
September 16, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Aug-25 Master Trust data...
From the Experian Small Business Index - Thought this was Intresting.
September 12, 2025 at 5:49 PM
From the Experian Small Business Index - Thought this was Intresting.
This is insane...
September 12, 2025 at 12:30 AM
This is insane...
If the market was healthy (or had confidence), we would see the blue section/area a lot bigger...
September 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
If the market was healthy (or had confidence), we would see the blue section/area a lot bigger...
something I think about randomly -- "Data Center construction spend represented 5.6% of private non-residential spend and 1.9% of total construction spend in the US in July."
September 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
something I think about randomly -- "Data Center construction spend represented 5.6% of private non-residential spend and 1.9% of total construction spend in the US in July."
Thought this was an interesting...
August 29, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Thought this was an interesting...