birdflustocks
birdflustocks.bsky.social
birdflustocks
@birdflustocks.bsky.social
The H5N1 avian influenza pandemic risk from a financial perspective.
November 23, 2025 at 6:33 PM
According to this 2024 article from Carolyn Barber @cbarbermd.bsky.social ASPR has been mismanaged for a long time:
fortune.com/2024/06/24/u...
I recommend the referenced letter from congress and looking into CD388 in the pandemic preparedness context.
d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/05_09_24_Let...
October 31, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Hospitalizations declined 50% last year and <10% of the difference is due to deaths. Looks promising!
www.cdc.gov/resp-net/das...
www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-s...
The most prominent concerns relate to 2020-2022:
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
Is there newer data to refute that?
October 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Thanks. Do people still gain immunity? For most people the approach appears to be repeated infections while the virus evolves. I understand the immune system has long-term components. But are cases getting milder or is there a trend reversal, adjusting for already dead most vulnerable demographics?
October 19, 2025 at 4:48 AM
My impression is long-term consequences of infectious diseases are generally underestimated. Personally I'm worried about loss of taste and smell, possible neurological issues and damage from repeated infections. How does Covid compare for risks other than hospitalization and death?
October 17, 2025 at 4:13 PM
"These limitations were evident in period one, mainly across southeastern Mexican states because they did not mount an immune response after vaccination with seroconversion and seroprotection rates less than 10 % of their population."
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
October 6, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Thanks for posting this source! I was estimating the probability of detecting H5N1 in pigs and this helps a lot! I calculated a 1 in 20.000 chance for each asymptomatic pig with an estimated 10% positivity rate, but with the actual 31% positivity rate it's even lower.
www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_Avian...
September 4, 2025 at 3:21 PM
There are lots of very basic pandemic preparedness issues, but vaccines also inherently have weaknesses.

www.birdflustocks.com/media/#stock...

The phase 2b results of CD388 are important progress, the federal US public health policies are a lost cause.

www.cidara.com/news/cidara-...
July 13, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Experts emphasize the risks but miss how utterly pointless this idea is.

Genetically modified chickens are being researched, there is no need whatsoever for any of this. Even success would be a meaningless, this is simply not how breeding chickens works:
www.reddit.com/r/AnimalRigh...
July 5, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Masks would be important, CD388 has potential.
“It’s simply not possible, because the virus continually evolves, to have a constant stockpile—a large stockpile—of vaccines”
www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-bi...
Here is my stockpile article collection:
www.birdflustocks.com/media/#stock...
July 5, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Experts emphasize the risks but miss how utterly pointless this idea is.

Genetically modified chickens are being researched, there is no need whatsoever for any of this. Even success would be a meaningless, this is simply not how breeding chickens works:
www.reddit.com/r/AnimalRigh...
July 5, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Experts emphasize the risks but miss how utterly pointless this idea is.

Genetically modified chickens are being researched, there is no need whatsoever for any of this. Even success would be a meaningless, this is simply not how breeding chickens works:
www.reddit.com/r/AnimalRigh...
July 5, 2025 at 7:56 PM
CD388 phase 2b results will be published in a few days. That would be "early enough" zanamivir, 0 hours post infection, for months as a preventative due to extended half-life of 7 weeks.
June 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Good study, alarmist interpretation. The mutation enables much faster replication, so it becomes dominant over time. It was already present at 4% and rose to 100%.
June 6, 2025 at 5:59 AM
B3.13 with PB2 E627K and D1.1 with PB2 D701N in cows. Pig-to-pig transmission next?

Data:
bsky.app/profile/hlni...

Pig-to-pig transmission study:
"Both mammal isolates evaluated in this study contained the PB2 E627K mutation (...) transmitted to >1 contact pig."
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...
June 6, 2025 at 1:53 AM