@biorealism.bsky.social
A summary of studies that highlight the limitations of the main papers that suggest Huanan Seafood Market origin. There is circumstantial evidence either way at best.
August 15, 2025 at 5:41 AM
A summary of studies that highlight the limitations of the main papers that suggest Huanan Seafood Market origin. There is circumstantial evidence either way at best.
Interesting coming from Inglesby, who was part of the White Houses Covid response team.
August 7, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Interesting coming from Inglesby, who was part of the White Houses Covid response team.
"Pseudoscience" - what do you think they were wrong about? Harvard geneticist David Reich pointed out in the New York Times that given all traits are influenced by genetics and the frequencies differ across populations then group differences are not unexpected.
August 2, 2025 at 7:54 AM
"Pseudoscience" - what do you think they were wrong about? Harvard geneticist David Reich pointed out in the New York Times that given all traits are influenced by genetics and the frequencies differ across populations then group differences are not unexpected.
Here is Harvard geneticist David Reich in the New York Times. Pieces like the one you linked to need to grapple with the more nuanced arguments about the causes of statistical group differences like this. www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/o...
August 2, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Here is Harvard geneticist David Reich in the New York Times. Pieces like the one you linked to need to grapple with the more nuanced arguments about the causes of statistical group differences like this. www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/o...
An anonymous virologist compiled this non-exhaustive summary of evidence for both the lab & market origin scenarios. Lab origin looks more likely and is favored by Energy Dept scientists at LLNL, the FBI, CIA, Germany's BND and the French Academy of Medicine.
July 30, 2025 at 2:10 AM
An anonymous virologist compiled this non-exhaustive summary of evidence for both the lab & market origin scenarios. Lab origin looks more likely and is favored by Energy Dept scientists at LLNL, the FBI, CIA, Germany's BND and the French Academy of Medicine.
Problem the Huanan Seafood Market origin theory is the ascertainment bias both towards the market itself and particularly the wildlife-stalls and the multiple spillover theory has been undermined by McCowan's analysis. The Bayes factor actually favors single spillover as other analyses have found.
July 16, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Problem the Huanan Seafood Market origin theory is the ascertainment bias both towards the market itself and particularly the wildlife-stalls and the multiple spillover theory has been undermined by McCowan's analysis. The Bayes factor actually favors single spillover as other analyses have found.
They appear to see the Huanan Seafood Market as a superspreader so contradict the main arguments for zoonotic spillover. If it didn't start at the market the evidence for natural origin seems rather thin. The fact the panel included someone with this conflict of interest doesn't help either.
June 29, 2025 at 3:56 AM
They appear to see the Huanan Seafood Market as a superspreader so contradict the main arguments for zoonotic spillover. If it didn't start at the market the evidence for natural origin seems rather thin. The fact the panel included someone with this conflict of interest doesn't help either.
this was revealed later and undermined everything those experts who dismissed it said. As David Relman says some of those authors continue to overstate what we know and don't know. It's true that could be said for some lab origin proponents too.
June 26, 2025 at 10:51 AM
this was revealed later and undermined everything those experts who dismissed it said. As David Relman says some of those authors continue to overstate what we know and don't know. It's true that could be said for some lab origin proponents too.
David Relman has a slightly different view on Holmes and some of the Proximal Origin authors. Ian Lipkin said he later refused to sign on later to the wet market theory and Holmes stopped talking to him.
June 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
David Relman has a slightly different view on Holmes and some of the Proximal Origin authors. Ian Lipkin said he later refused to sign on later to the wet market theory and Holmes stopped talking to him.
You were referring to the claim that some scientists had tried to suppress the lab origin case? The behavior of certain editors and those who organized the Lancet letter is absolutely supportive of that claim. More fundamentally, there are obvious incentives against it as Richard Muller noted.
June 10, 2025 at 10:10 AM
You were referring to the claim that some scientists had tried to suppress the lab origin case? The behavior of certain editors and those who organized the Lancet letter is absolutely supportive of that claim. More fundamentally, there are obvious incentives against it as Richard Muller noted.
There is quite a lot of overlap here. Eg.
June 5, 2025 at 10:18 AM
There is quite a lot of overlap here. Eg.
WHO considers all hypotheses remain on the table. Energy Z-Division scientists at LLNL shifted to favor lab origin joining the FBI, CIA, Germany's BND, French Academy of Medicine. The arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin have been significantly undermined by several analyses.
June 3, 2025 at 10:02 AM
WHO considers all hypotheses remain on the table. Energy Z-Division scientists at LLNL shifted to favor lab origin joining the FBI, CIA, Germany's BND, French Academy of Medicine. The arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin have been significantly undermined by several analyses.
Ultimately WHO is still calling for data on both the animal trade and Wuhan labs. There are a number of analyses highlighting the biased and incomplete early case data which makes it unlikely the issue will be resolved.
June 3, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Ultimately WHO is still calling for data on both the animal trade and Wuhan labs. There are a number of analyses highlighting the biased and incomplete early case data which makes it unlikely the issue will be resolved.
Unfortunately, I suspect they are ignoring the various analyses showing ascertainment bias in the early case data and the lack of any link to Yunnan and Laos aside from the sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology for SrCoVs and other high risk pathogens.
June 3, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Unfortunately, I suspect they are ignoring the various analyses showing ascertainment bias in the early case data and the lack of any link to Yunnan and Laos aside from the sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology for SrCoVs and other high risk pathogens.
Ultimately WHO continues to press for data on both the animal trade and Wuhan labs. The main arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin rest on incomplete and biased early case data as several analyses have shown.
June 3, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Ultimately WHO continues to press for data on both the animal trade and Wuhan labs. The main arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin rest on incomplete and biased early case data as several analyses have shown.
Lab origin is also suspected by Energy Dept scientists at LLNL, the FBI, CIA, German intelligence agency BND & the French Academy of Medicine. Professor Gronvall ignores various analyses that undermine the arguments for seafood market origin something even Ralph Baric and Ian Lipkin find unlikely.
May 30, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Lab origin is also suspected by Energy Dept scientists at LLNL, the FBI, CIA, German intelligence agency BND & the French Academy of Medicine. Professor Gronvall ignores various analyses that undermine the arguments for seafood market origin something even Ralph Baric and Ian Lipkin find unlikely.
WHO is still seeking data on both the animal trade & Wuhan labs. FBI, CIA & Energy Dept scientists at LLNL favor lab origin with varying levels of confidence as do German intelligence and the French Academy of Medicine. A number of analyses challenge the arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin.
April 22, 2025 at 6:02 AM
WHO is still seeking data on both the animal trade & Wuhan labs. FBI, CIA & Energy Dept scientists at LLNL favor lab origin with varying levels of confidence as do German intelligence and the French Academy of Medicine. A number of analyses challenge the arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin.
McCowan has a new analysis which reverses Pekar et al's Bayes factor to favor single spillover.
Lv et al (2024) published new genomes and concluded single spillover is likely.
Balloux and Courtier-Orgogozo suggest multiple spillover unlikely as Lineage A and B are only two mutations apart.
Lv et al (2024) published new genomes and concluded single spillover is likely.
Balloux and Courtier-Orgogozo suggest multiple spillover unlikely as Lineage A and B are only two mutations apart.
April 22, 2025 at 1:19 AM
McCowan has a new analysis which reverses Pekar et al's Bayes factor to favor single spillover.
Lv et al (2024) published new genomes and concluded single spillover is likely.
Balloux and Courtier-Orgogozo suggest multiple spillover unlikely as Lineage A and B are only two mutations apart.
Lv et al (2024) published new genomes and concluded single spillover is likely.
Balloux and Courtier-Orgogozo suggest multiple spillover unlikely as Lineage A and B are only two mutations apart.
Markolin and Faul apparently share this religious certitude and frustration with heretical views on this topic.
April 10, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Markolin and Faul apparently share this religious certitude and frustration with heretical views on this topic.
Not at all. They concede the point about bone density and don't address the other permanent differences that underpin the basis for having a female sports category.
April 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Not at all. They concede the point about bone density and don't address the other permanent differences that underpin the basis for having a female sports category.
The controversy really arises at the elite level and particularly in contact sports. Dr Alison Heather, Professor of Physiology at University of Otago, set out some of the issues here.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
April 8, 2025 at 12:14 AM
The controversy really arises at the elite level and particularly in contact sports. Dr Alison Heather, Professor of Physiology at University of Otago, set out some of the issues here.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Dr Alison Heather, Professor of Physiology at University of Otago, sets out the nub of the concern at the elite level.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
April 8, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Dr Alison Heather, Professor of Physiology at University of Otago, sets out the nub of the concern at the elite level.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Dr Alison Heather, Professor of Physiology at University of Otago, sets out the nub of the concern at the elite level.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
April 8, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Dr Alison Heather, Professor of Physiology at University of Otago, sets out the nub of the concern at the elite level.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Right and the arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin have been significantly undermined.
April 3, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Right and the arguments for Huanan Seafood Market origin have been significantly undermined.
This is the argument outlined in Chen et al (2024) re Bruttel et al (2022) in light of DEFUSE drafts. Another argument is it may have arisen in the course of serial passage in hACE2 mice (Sirotkin & Sirotkin 2020). Seems unlikely exact source will be found.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
April 3, 2025 at 8:25 AM
This is the argument outlined in Chen et al (2024) re Bruttel et al (2022) in light of DEFUSE drafts. Another argument is it may have arisen in the course of serial passage in hACE2 mice (Sirotkin & Sirotkin 2020). Seems unlikely exact source will be found.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...