Billy Carpenter
@billycarpy.bsky.social
⚽️ writing and analysis, usually in the form of giant Arsenal long-reads. I also write for SCOUTED. Here's my newsletter:
https://billycarpenter.substack.com/
https://billycarpenter.substack.com/
Pinned
Billy Carpenter
@billycarpy.bsky.social
· May 20
Scouting Martín Zubimendi
A massive profile on Arsenal's likely midfield signing: his fit, function, defensive game, physical profile, press resistance, passing range, untapped skills, and potential to transform Arsenal
billycarpenter.substack.com
Here's my 8,000+ word profile on Arsenal's likely midfield signing: his fit, function, defensive game, physical profile, press resistance, passing range, untapped skills, and potential to transform Arsenal. Reads and shares are appreciated. ❤️
I was feeling a *little* more sanguine before I saw that Sunderland were 16th in xG with the fewest shots on target in the league. They sure look better than that every time I tune in.
November 8, 2025 at 10:48 PM
I was feeling a *little* more sanguine before I saw that Sunderland were 16th in xG with the fewest shots on target in the league. They sure look better than that every time I tune in.
The only sub thing I'm really questioning is that the late-match felt prime for Hincapié: runny, energy-y, fighty, duelly, shithousey, secure.
November 8, 2025 at 10:47 PM
The only sub thing I'm really questioning is that the late-match felt prime for Hincapié: runny, energy-y, fighty, duelly, shithousey, secure.
Runny attackers = more outlets = more possession = fewer waves of opponent pressure late = a much easier job of defending. Obvious, but somebody like Martinelli or Madueke is a lovely defensive sub, in other words. We had none.
November 8, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Runny attackers = more outlets = more possession = fewer waves of opponent pressure late = a much easier job of defending. Obvious, but somebody like Martinelli or Madueke is a lovely defensive sub, in other words. We had none.
Reposted by Billy Carpenter
Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Adventures
Breaking back-fives, what numbers have changed (and what haven't), how Eze differs from Ødegaard, Saliba in midfield, scattered notes on Rice and Gyökeres, and more
billycarpenter.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Important shifts, as I went through @gradientsports.bsky.social data:
— Arsenal now lead the league in “open play power shots” (26)
— This is 12 more than the second-highest team
— Arsenal have the highest percentage of “power shots” in the league (19%)
— Eze leads this league (7).
— Arsenal now lead the league in “open play power shots” (26)
— This is 12 more than the second-highest team
— Arsenal have the highest percentage of “power shots” in the league (19%)
— Eze leads this league (7).
Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Adventures
Breaking back-fives, what numbers have changed (and what haven't), how Eze differs from Ødegaard, Saliba in midfield, scattered notes on Rice and Gyökeres, and more
billycarpenter.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Important shifts, as I went through @gradientsports.bsky.social data:
— Arsenal now lead the league in “open play power shots” (26)
— This is 12 more than the second-highest team
— Arsenal have the highest percentage of “power shots” in the league (19%)
— Eze leads this league (7).
— Arsenal now lead the league in “open play power shots” (26)
— This is 12 more than the second-highest team
— Arsenal have the highest percentage of “power shots” in the league (19%)
— Eze leads this league (7).
Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Adventures
Breaking back-fives, what numbers have changed (and what haven't), how Eze differs from Ødegaard, Saliba in midfield, scattered notes on Rice and Gyökeres, and more
billycarpenter.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.
Hincapié o'clock.
November 4, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Hincapié o'clock.
Diabolical subs.
October 30, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Diabolical subs.
Yeah, I've been working on Post-Towel expected Threat (PTxT ±).
Basically, you take the expected threat of the throw-in after treatment (i.e, towel), and subtract the value of control (i.e, comparable, towelless throw-ins).
My wife hasn't seen me in three weeks. Will report back.
Basically, you take the expected threat of the throw-in after treatment (i.e, towel), and subtract the value of control (i.e, comparable, towelless throw-ins).
My wife hasn't seen me in three weeks. Will report back.
The quality of throw-ins when using a towel or not.
Get to the real issues of the game
Get to the real issues of the game
October 30, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Yeah, I've been working on Post-Towel expected Threat (PTxT ±).
Basically, you take the expected threat of the throw-in after treatment (i.e, towel), and subtract the value of control (i.e, comparable, towelless throw-ins).
My wife hasn't seen me in three weeks. Will report back.
Basically, you take the expected threat of the throw-in after treatment (i.e, towel), and subtract the value of control (i.e, comparable, towelless throw-ins).
My wife hasn't seen me in three weeks. Will report back.
I have approximately 64 bullets that I'm considering writing about for Arsenal. What micro-topic are you interested in me exploring right now?
October 30, 2025 at 5:45 PM
I have approximately 64 bullets that I'm considering writing about for Arsenal. What micro-topic are you interested in me exploring right now?
Celebrate all you want, but all I see is a nil-nil draw on set pieces. ☹️
October 29, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Celebrate all you want, but all I see is a nil-nil draw on set pieces. ☹️
Arsenal needed a quicker trigger.
October 26, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Arsenal needed a quicker trigger.
Same karate kick that created the first Gyökeres goal against Atleti.
Shooters shoot.
Shooters shoot.
October 26, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Same karate kick that created the first Gyökeres goal against Atleti.
Shooters shoot.
Shooters shoot.
I've been experimenting with one-pagers to condense my longer scouting reports into key insights for coaches. Basically: how to set a player up for success.
Here’s a draft for Piero Hincapié, whose time is near.
Here’s a draft for Piero Hincapié, whose time is near.
October 25, 2025 at 1:38 PM
I've been experimenting with one-pagers to condense my longer scouting reports into key insights for coaches. Basically: how to set a player up for success.
Here’s a draft for Piero Hincapié, whose time is near.
Here’s a draft for Piero Hincapié, whose time is near.
Still have some stubborn faith in Jesus (football player). If he loses a step, it'll impact his ability to win wide, but he has it in him to be a ghosting, combining, more typical box striker, as we saw before the injury. He is one smart motherfucker.
October 24, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Still have some stubborn faith in Jesus (football player). If he loses a step, it'll impact his ability to win wide, but he has it in him to be a ghosting, combining, more typical box striker, as we saw before the injury. He is one smart motherfucker.
Reposted by Billy Carpenter
"The demands of the game stay the same. There's only three things that happen in a game. You've got it. They've got it. And no one's got it."
- Dyche 07/01/25
- Dyche 07/01/25
October 12, 2025 at 8:49 PM
"The demands of the game stay the same. There's only three things that happen in a game. You've got it. They've got it. And no one's got it."
- Dyche 07/01/25
- Dyche 07/01/25
My mild take is that Arsenal's fans are a touch too calma about depth. Great players are great players and they're hard to replace for a reason. Being able to cover them 90% is excellent, but still not 100%.
October 24, 2025 at 1:49 PM
My mild take is that Arsenal's fans are a touch too calma about depth. Great players are great players and they're hard to replace for a reason. Being able to cover them 90% is excellent, but still not 100%.
Both Brentford and Arsenal have gone through a lot of change, and yet:
Closest shots to goal, 24/25
1. Brentford (14.9 yards)
2. Arsenal (15.1 yards)
Closest shots to goal, 25/26
1. Brentford (13.8 yards)
2. Arsenal (14.8 yards)
Closest shots to goal, 24/25
1. Brentford (14.9 yards)
2. Arsenal (15.1 yards)
Closest shots to goal, 25/26
1. Brentford (13.8 yards)
2. Arsenal (14.8 yards)
October 22, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Both Brentford and Arsenal have gone through a lot of change, and yet:
Closest shots to goal, 24/25
1. Brentford (14.9 yards)
2. Arsenal (15.1 yards)
Closest shots to goal, 25/26
1. Brentford (13.8 yards)
2. Arsenal (14.8 yards)
Closest shots to goal, 24/25
1. Brentford (14.9 yards)
2. Arsenal (15.1 yards)
Closest shots to goal, 25/26
1. Brentford (13.8 yards)
2. Arsenal (14.8 yards)
Every time Nørgaard comes on, I remember that he’s basically as big a set piece psycho as Gabriel.
October 22, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Every time Nørgaard comes on, I remember that he’s basically as big a set piece psycho as Gabriel.
Marginal gains.
October 21, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Marginal gains.
I love football. Specifically, Arsenal.
October 21, 2025 at 11:05 PM
I love football. Specifically, Arsenal.
Arsenal points lost from winning positions
• 24/25: 21
• 25/26: 0 (so far)
Thanks for joining, Mr. Zubimendi.
• 24/25: 21
• 25/26: 0 (so far)
Thanks for joining, Mr. Zubimendi.
October 20, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Arsenal points lost from winning positions
• 24/25: 21
• 25/26: 0 (so far)
Thanks for joining, Mr. Zubimendi.
• 24/25: 21
• 25/26: 0 (so far)
Thanks for joining, Mr. Zubimendi.
Never underestimate yourself.
I have as many Premier League saves as David Raya this October.
I have as many Premier League saves as David Raya this October.
October 20, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Never underestimate yourself.
I have as many Premier League saves as David Raya this October.
I have as many Premier League saves as David Raya this October.
Saying this as a Piastri fan, but there are parallels to Slot, in which one got heaps of praise for being calm and faultless, except:
it is easy to be calm and faultless
when things are going calmly and faultlessly
it is easy to be calm and faultless
when things are going calmly and faultlessly
October 20, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Saying this as a Piastri fan, but there are parallels to Slot, in which one got heaps of praise for being calm and faultless, except:
it is easy to be calm and faultless
when things are going calmly and faultlessly
it is easy to be calm and faultless
when things are going calmly and faultlessly