Bernat Camps Adrogué
bernatcamps.bsky.social
Bernat Camps Adrogué
@bernatcamps.bsky.social
Associate at Lion's Head Global Partners working with EM Sovereigns and MDBs | IMF, SDRs and Debt | CGD, LSE & UPF alumni | Views are my own.
Indeed... and also indicative of Senegal's position which received 3-notch downgrade in less than 6 months (+ an extra 30% probability according to Moody's to be downgraded in the next year, compared to less than 15% of all B3-rated issuers)
February 27, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Minor correction which makes it tougher, B3 from B1...
February 24, 2025 at 2:28 PM
-Next steps: COP28 presidency offering full support to showcase the proposal at a high-level event on Finance Day on December 4th during COP28. The AfDB and IDB did a great job developing this proposal, now it's time for donors to step up.
www.cgdev.org/blog/funding...
Funding Hybrid Capital at the AfDB is the Best Deal for SDR Donors
Many advanced-economy countries are looking for ways to recycle their excess Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to support more vulnerable countries whose economies are being buffeted by the economic after...
www.cgdev.org
October 25, 2023 at 8:51 AM
- France confirmed its participation in the SDR rechanneling to MDBs through the Liquidity Support Agreement
- The participants agreed to establish a working group to identify contributions ASAP and resolve the remaining technical issues faced by donors
October 25, 2023 at 8:51 AM
And the blog summarising the findings (but as always, recommend reading the whole thing): www.cgdev.org/blog/do-fina...
4/4
Do Financial Markets Reflect Climate Risks?
Widespread climate shocks, from heatwaves and droughts to hurricanes and coastal flooding, affect nations across all income levels, with profound implications for economic growth and human welfare. Wi...
www.cgdev.org
October 24, 2023 at 3:12 PM
This implies a triple whammy of challenges for emerging market economies as they confront the economic damages of climate change, the high fiscal costs of climate adaptation, and high borrowing costs. 3/4 Link to the paper: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies
Climate change is a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting the potential economic consequences of climate change, there is relatively little researc...
www.cgdev.org
October 24, 2023 at 3:11 PM
Findings: 1- We find that changes in climate debt are an important determinant of spreads, but only in emerging economies. 2- Countries with high vulnerabilities and low resiliency to climate change also pay higher spreads. 2/4
October 24, 2023 at 3:11 PM
However, I do agree with the call for donors to close the gaps in PRGT resources. The PRGT is key for LICs and although donors made a great effort during AM to close these gaps, there's still room for a bigger PRGT. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
Whither or Wither the PRGT? Funding Options for a Cash-Strapped PRGT
The IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) faces large financing needs. Unprecedented levels of lending since the start of the pandemic – four to five times higher than before the pandemi...
www.cgdev.org
October 19, 2023 at 10:48 AM
Most of the chunk of PRGT-eligible countries still have room to borrow more under the PRGT as the limit is currently at 435%. What could be raised is the annual limit currently set at 145% so countries can borrow more under the PRGT per year.
October 19, 2023 at 10:48 AM
3) I only partly disagree with aligning PRGT access thresholds with those of the GRA. In the March review, GRA access limits were raised but not for the PRGT due to the lack of subsidy resources. Although I think it's a great initiative, it will likely have no impact(table below)
October 19, 2023 at 10:48 AM
The IMF struggled to find subsidy resources and still needs to meet the updated subsidy pledge, expanding eligibility for the PRGT will only worsen the problem.
www.cgdev.org/blog/running...
Running on Empty: Why the PRGT’s Subsidy Resources Need to be Replenished Soon
Current resources for the IMF's PRGT are not sufficient to support continued high demand. The problem is the lack of subsidy resources, which has worsened markedly in the current environment. Donors w...
www.cgdev.org
October 19, 2023 at 10:47 AM
2) I don't think the Fund should relax the PRGT eligibility criteria. There are already 70 countries eligible for the PRGT (only 6 less than IDA), adding more countries will likely crowd out programs that should go to the countries that need this the most.
October 19, 2023 at 10:47 AM
10: Last but not least, The IMFC calls for the creation of a 25th chair on the IMF EB for Sub-Saharan Africa to improve Africa's voice and representation on the board.
Link to the statement: www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
Chair's Statement: Forty-Eighth Meeting of the IMFC
We express our deepest condolences to the people of Afghanistan and Morocco for the tragic loss of life and widespread destruction caused by the recent devastating earthquakes. We also express our dee...
www.imf.org
October 17, 2023 at 9:25 AM
9: On debt, it welcomes progress in Zambia, Sri Lanka, and Suriname, but calls for progress in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Malawi. It also supports stronger creditor coordination for debt restructuring in LICs and MICs outside the CF.
October 17, 2023 at 9:25 AM