John Berlinsky
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berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
John Berlinsky
@berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
2K followers 3.4K following 1.8K posts
Victoria, BC
Retired physics prof and, in case you can't tell, a Liberal
🇨🇦 #IStandWithTrudeau #LiberalMajority
#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦
#MarkCarney
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berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
He also disqualified himself by claiming the contingent legal expenses are not capital costs. Try googling the TMX cost overrun and then ask Google AI whether of not that includes legal expenses.
Asking Google AI - Does that cost include legal costs of lawsuits opposing the project? Response: Thinking Searching Yes, the $34 billion total cost of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion includes the project's own legal costs incurred while addressing and navigating the various lawsuits and regulatory requirements that opposed the project. These were considered part of the "reasonably and justifiably incurred" costs by the Crown corporation.
November 14, 2025 at 9:34 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Cadboro Bay at sunset.
Looking out over Cadboro Bay at sunset with pink clouds in the background.
October 27, 2025 at 2:20 AM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4qqAMv9
What has changed is simple: people are scared of crossing Trump this time. In researching this piece, I interviewed dozens of figures, including lawmakers, private sector executives, retired senior military figures and intelligence chiefs, current and former Trump officials, Washington lawyers and foreign government officials. Such is the fear of jail, bankruptcy or professional reprisal, that most of these people insisted on anonymity. This was in spite of the fact that many of the same people also wanted to emphasise that Trump would only be restrained by powerful voices opposing him publicly. At times, it has felt like trying to report on politics in Turkey or Hungary.
October 24, 2025 at 3:08 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Figure from Martin Wolf's article in today's Financial Times, showing that Canada's current effective US tariff rate, at about 7%, is the lowest of all countries shown, although it is more than an order of magnitude higher than at the end of 2024. on.ft.com/4958sbo
Comparison of effective US tariff rates for various countries. The highest rates for October 2025 are those of China (45%), India (36%) and Brazil (29%), while the lowest is Canada at (7%). The world average rate is about 19%.
October 15, 2025 at 2:54 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
This is the life-saving work that the Trump Regime is doing its best to destroy.
I have to add: please note that this work is the result of long years of university research, much of it federally funded. And note that the years (decades) of less-successful attempts that have led up to these papers are in the same category: NIH and NCI money are all over this field. This is the very thing that the Trump administration has been working tirelessly to destroy. I am not exaggerating. They have been hitting these funding agencies over and over with layoffs, budget cuts, and whatever obstacles they can dream up, and they are also ripping into the universities where these funds have been granted. The exact phrases that J. D. Vance, Stephen Miller, Russell Vought and their henchmen have used is "universities are the enemy" and federal workers "need to be put into trauma". More specifically, the attitudes of our HHS head (RFK, Jr.) and his own minions toward mRNA research and vaccination are easy to summarize: they hate it and they want it to stop. It seems bizarre and insane and almost impossible to believe, but that is exactly what is happening. Every time you see scientific progress being made from US universities, remember that our elected officials are trying every day to defund it, to cripple it, to kill it outright. They are hitting it again and again in the hopes that it will finally stop moving. Act accordingly.
October 14, 2025 at 9:08 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Can't watch it in Canada.
Video unavailable. The uploader has not made this video available in your country.
October 13, 2025 at 9:06 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Canada loses 6,000 full-time and 59,700 part-time jobs. Unemployment rate rises from 6.9% to 7.1%.
REUTERS Canada loses net 65,500 jobs in August, jobless rate rises to 7.1% 27 minutes ago OTTAWA, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Canada's economy lost a net 65,500 jobs in July, largely in part-time work, and the jobless rate rose to 7.1%, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday. Employment in the goods producing sector grew by a net 1,700 jobs, largely in construction. The services sector was down by a net 67,200 positions, led by professional, scientific and technical services, as well as transportation and warehousing. Aug 2025 Jul 2025 Jobs gain/loss -65,500 -40,800 full-time -6,000 -51,000 part-time -59,700 +10,300 Unemployment rate 7.1% 6.9% Participation 65.1% 65.2% Labor force 22.550 mln 22.581 mln Aug 2025 Aug 2024 % change Avg hourly wage C$37.81 C$36.50 +3.6 NOTE: Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast 10,000 new jobs in August, and for the unemployment rate to rise to 7.0%. Hourly wage figures are for permanent employees. (Reporting by Dale Smith; Editing by Promit Mukherjee) ((promit.mukherjee@tr.com)) Keywords: CANADA ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT
September 5, 2025 at 1:04 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
A reminder: Alberta's in-situ bitumen production of 1.96 million bbl/d in July rose 7% on a sequential basis, achieving record high total monthly production volumes, and was up approximately 151,100 bbl/ d year/year.
Alberta Oil Sands Bitumen Production (ex. Mining), graph showing steady increase from 0.7 million barrels of oil per day (bbl/d) in 2009 to 1.96 million bbl/d in July 2025.
August 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Younger Americans are particularly concerned that AI will replace their jobs in the coming years - from RBC Capital Markets
Table showing responses to Ipsos poll on "How likely do you think that AI will replace your job in the next five years. Responses of Very Likely range from 3% for those aged 55+ to 8% for those aged 35-54 to 18% for those 18-34.
August 15, 2025 at 1:13 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
US Exports in Complete Disarray
REUTERS US government turmoil stalls thousands of export approvals, sources say 9 minutes ago By Karen Freifeld and Alexandra Alper (Reuters) -Thousands of license applications by U.S. companies to export goods and technology around the globe, including to China, are in limbo because turmoil at the agency in charge of approving them has left it nearly paralyzed, two sources said. While U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has become a familiar face touting President Donald Trump's tariff and trade deals, sources said the export bureau under Lutnick's command has failed to issue expected new rules, stifled communications with industry representatives, pushed out experts, and lost staff through buyouts and resignations. Shipments of artificial intelligence chips from Nvidia to China are the most high-profile example of licenses not being swiftly approved. The company said July 14 the government assured it licenses would be granted for its H20 chip, and it hoped to start deliveries soon. Lutnick and other officials confirmed sales would be allowed. But sources said this week no licenses have yet been issued, and billions of dollars of AI chip orders are at stake. One U.S. official said the backlog of license applications is the lengthiest in more than three decades. A spokesperson for Nvidia declined to comment. The Department of Commerce did not respond to a request for comment. The turmoil and resulting inaction at an agency tasked with promoting overseas trade and safeguarding American technology are alarming both those seeking tougher restrictions on exports to China and companies trying to sell their wares abroad. "Licensing is how the U.S. does business and competes globally," said Meghan Harris, who served on the National Security Council in the first Trump administration and has worked at Commerce. "Delays and unpredictability put us at an unnecessary disadvantage." The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security averaged 38 days per e… FRUSTRATION AMONG EXPORTERS Frustration is growing within U.S. industry. "We’re seeing whole sectors where there is no movement or indication if or when licenses will be issued," including license applications for semiconductor manufacturing equipment worth billions of dollars, said Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council. While the clock is ticking on license applications, "Chinese companies are exploring and doing deals with suppliers in China and other countries," he said. "The longer we have the delay, the more market share we're going to lose." Jim Anzalone, president of Compliance Assurance, a Florida-based trade consultancy, said he has seen delays in license approvals for sensors, radars, and sonar to Latin America and other parts of the world. "There's nothing official about what the policy is and when the backlog would be cleared," he said. He has received denials sporadically after submitting some two dozen applications months ago to export semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, including four denials on Wednesday, he added. Sources stressed that some licenses are getting approved, especially exports to allied countries, and they noted that some communication with companies continues, especially around license applications. Commerce is also delaying regulatory changes. The agency said in May it would rescind and replace a Biden administration rule before it went into effect that month restricting where AI chips can be exported, but the agency has not done so yet. Other rules, which sources said have been drafted for months, have not been published, including one to expand export restrictions to subsidiaries of companies already banned from receiving controlled U.S. exports. Meanwhile, important staff vacancies such as China-based export control officers have not been filled, and high-level career employees have resigned. A retirement party was held this week for Dan Clutch, acting director of the BIS Office of Export…
August 1, 2025 at 3:40 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
The association between steps per day and health outcomes
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Association between steps per day and health outcomes (A) All-cause mortality. (B) Cardiovascular disease incidence. (C) Cardiovascular disease mortality. (D) Cancer incidence. (E) Cancer mortality. (F) Type 2 diabetes. (G) Dementia. (H) Depressive symptoms. (I) Falls. The dashed horizontal line at HR 1·0 represents the threshold at which the exposure does not increase or decrease the risk of the outcome relative to the reference point. The vertical line at 2000 steps represents the reference point. The lower bar represents the number of data points from studies with darker colours representing a higher data point clustering. Three key findings emerge. First, even modest daily step counts were associated with health benefits. Second, 7000 steps per day was associated with sizeable risk reductions across most outcomes, compared with the reference of 2000 steps per day. Third, even though risk continued to decrease beyond 7000 steps per day, it plateaued for some outcomes.
July 24, 2025 at 3:16 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Published in 2005 - a reminder of how Britain viewed Hitler after he was appointed Chancellor in 1933. The analogy to Trump's regime is striking. Simply replace Hitler's antisemitism with Trump's anti-immigrant policies and Poland with Canada. Unlike post-WWI Germany, the US does not need to rearm.
Image of book cover, "Making Friends with Hitler," by Ian Kershaw.
July 14, 2025 at 4:28 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Trump's government now has the resources to create its own domestic army/police force that's unconstrained by any obligation to support and defend the Constitution. This army will pit Americans against Americans, who will soon have no way to protect their liberties short of civil war.
From the NY Times Homeland security and immigration - Cost Immigration detention capacity Expand capacity to detain immigrants taken into custody $45 bil. Border wall Fund border barrier system construction and related activities $45 bil. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Funding for hiring, training, transportation, facilities and legal resources to carry out immigration enforcement and removals $31 bil. State and local grants Funding for border security, immigration enforcement and major event security $13 bil. Homeland Security Department funding For border security and immigration enforcement $12 bil. U.S. Customs and Border Protection Funding to expand workforce and purchase new vehicles and technology $12 bil. Border surveillance technology $6.2 bil. Department of Justice grants For state and local immigration and law enforcement $3.5 bil. Department of Justice funding For immigration and other law enforcement $3.3 bil. Fund vetting for sponsors of unaccompanied alien children Through the Office of Refugee Resettlement $0.3 bil. Presidential residence protection Fund reimbursements to local law enforcement for protecting the president’s private residences $0.3 bil.
July 4, 2025 at 12:48 AM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
They tried Made in the USA - it was too expensive for their customers
By Siddharth Cavale NEW YORK (Reuters) -When Plufl co-founders Yuki Kinoshita and Noah Silverman pitched their "dog beds for humans" prototype to Shark Tank in 2022, they envisioned making the plush, snuggly, memory foam beds in China and selling them at retail in the U.S. for $299. Mark Cuban and Lori Greiner invested $200,000 jointly for 20% of the company, which went on to make over $1 million in sales in 2023, selling beds on Amazon and their own website. After U.S. President Donald Trump slapped a 145% tariff on items imported from China in April, Kinoshita and Silverman sprung into action, investigating if retailers would be interested in selling a U.S. made version of their human dog beds. The retail price might go higher, but they thought a "made-in-the-USA" label might be an attractive selling point and help ease some U.S. retailers' concerns about the impact of China tariffs. Silverman and Kinoshita had previously toured a factory in Las Vegas that could make the memory foam beds for $150 per unit compared to the $100 overall cost to make the beds in China. But that $150 manufacturing cost didn’t include the faux fur lining for the cover, which would still need to be imported from China—adding another $100 per unit. They pitched a sub-$500 made-in-the-USA version to Costco, which it turned down, saying it couldn’t stock the product this year and might revisit the idea next year. Costco did not respond to a request for comment. The duo behind Plufl are among tens of thousands of American small and midsize manufacturers facing the choice between paying steep tariffs on Chinese imports or taking on significantly higher domestic production costs. Even those willing to pay more to make goods in the U.S. are confronting another reality: retailers set prices for consumers and have been largely unwilling to budge in the face of tariffs. On June 11, when Trump announced a deal to lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 55%, Kinoshita and Silverman decided to sta… DRINKING MARGINS Similarly, Aisha Chottani, another "Shark Tank" veteran, found that tariffs threaten her ability to sell her products in grocery stores. Chottani, CEO-founder of Moment, makes her healthy, stress-reducing carbonated beverages in Wisconsin, but her packager, CanWorks imports pre-formed aluminum from China, and is thus subject to aluminum tariffs which raised the price of cans from by 20%. When Chottani tried to pass on the 4 cents in additional costs to Albertsons, which carries her $3.99 "Strawberry Rose" beverage at about 30 locations in Texas and New Mexico, her answer was swift. "Albertsons refused any price increases," she said and suggested she either keep the same price or leave. Albertsons did not respond to a request for comment. In February, she launched Moment beverages in Sprout Farmers Markets across the U.S., but was forced to do so with higher-priced cans. "There wasn't enough time to shift production to factories in Vietnam or other places," she said. For now, Chottani is keeping her wholesale price the same even as her costs have gone up. She's raising additional cash from investors and looking to cut costs. "Even in the short term a 20% price hike is huge and is going to wipe out all your cash," she said. BABY TARIFFS It's not just startups that are struggling. Bugaboo, the Netherlands-based maker of expensive baby gear, owns its own factory in China and would seem to be well-prepared to weather tariffs. The company's popular "Fox 5" stroller, which retails for about $1,500 in the U.S., is made at its factory in Xiamen, China, where 97% of strollers and car seats imported to the U.S. are made, according to ImportGenius, which tracks U.S. import, export records and shipping manifests. But when Trump’s tariffs hit, Bugaboo started to reevaluate that strategy. The company had begun studying moving production to other countries in Asia to have more regional production flexibility as well as the U.S., but any move would be ye… TAKING NOTES Pensacola, Florida-based Simplified, maker of high-end notebooks, cards and stationery, can make a day planner complete with a hard cover, gold corners, foil and color printing for about $12 in Shenzhen, China, where many U.S.-bound paper products are made. After the tariffs hit and small businesses began feeling the pain, CEO-founder Emily Ley said many people asked why she didn’t just move her manufacturing to the U.S. "The United States simply does not have the infrastructure," said Ley. The problem? Producing the same planner in the U.S. would cost $38 - and that’s with lower-quality materials. Ley said she keeps her manufacturing costs at 25% of the $64 retail price of the planners. She said she can't pass on the cost of tariffs, because then her planners would cost $100. "People aren't gonna pay $100 for a paper planner, nor should they," said Ley, who has filed a lawsuit against Trump alleging that his use of emergency powers to enact tariffs was illegal. In the meantime, Ley is absorbing the cost and continuing manufacturing in China, which means cutting back on other areas like investing in growth, jobs, salaries and advertising. "You know, we're all encouraged to pursue the American dream and create businesses," Ley said. "The tariffs at any level are truly punitive. It seems kind of counterproductive to the whole point of this whole thing." (Reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York; Editing by Lisa Jucca and Michael Learmonth)
July 2, 2025 at 2:12 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
A Forever War in the Middle East
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The war is over! Except it’s not, not by a long chalk. The verbally agreed Iran-Israel ceasefire could be ripped to shreds at any moment. An aggressive theocratic regime still holds power in Tehran. The same is true of Jerusalem. In Washington, a president whose stupidity is matched only by his vanity prattles about making peace, but the angry old men in charge have learned nothing. Meanwhile, hundreds of civilians lie dead, thousands are wounded and millions have been terrorised.
June 29, 2025 at 5:19 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Who's at the bottom of the deficit heap?
on.ft.com/4ldAGDQ
The US is now at the top of the deficit heap in terms of annual budget deficit and net debt for the G7. Canada is at the bottom.
June 18, 2025 at 12:07 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
UK, France and Canada threaten action if Israel’s offensive continues as first aid crosses into Gaza in weeks
18.17 BST UK, France and Canada threaten 'concrete actions' if Israel does not stop Gaza offensive The leaders of Britain, France and Canada issued a joint statement on Monday warning that they will take “further concrete actions” if Israel does not stop a renewed military offensive in Gaza and lift aid restrictions. The statement by Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney condemns Israel’s expansion of military operations in Gaza as “wholly disproportionate”, adding that the “level of human suffering in Gaza is intolerable”. We will not stand by while the Netanyahu Government pursues these egregious actions. If Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift its restrictions on humanitarian aid, we will take further concrete actions in response. It describes the Israeli government’s “denial of essential humanitarian assistance” as “unacceptable” and says it risks breaching international humanitarian law. In addition, it condemns the “abhorrent” language used by Israeli politicians threatening civilians to relocate from Gaza. The leaders called on the Israeli government to stop its military operations in Gaza and immediately allow humanitarian aid to enter the Palestinian territory.
May 19, 2025 at 5:59 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Canada shipped about 207,000 barrels per day on average to China since the Trans Mountain expansion ramped up to full operations in June last year. That was a huge increase from an average of about 7,000 bpd in the decade to 2023. The U.S. took about 173,000 bpd from the pipeline in the same period.
REUTERS With US trade war, China now top buyer for Canadian crude on Trans Mountain pipeline 4 hours ago By Amanda Stephenson and Arathy Somasekhar CALGARY/HOUSTON (Reuters) -China has emerged as the top customer for Canadian oil shipped on the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, ship tracking data showed, as a U.S. trade war has shifted crude flows in the year since the pipeline started operating. China's new interest in Canadian oil comes as U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war has strained relations between longtime allies Washington and Ottawa. It also reflects the impact of U.S. sanctions on crude from countries like Russia and Venezuela. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, but its main oil-producing province of Alberta is landlocked with limited access to tidewater ports. That means the bulk of Canadian oil - about 4 million barrels per day or 90% - is exported to the U.S. via pipelines that run north-south. The C$34 billion ($24.40 billion) Trans Mountain is Canada's only east-west oil pipeline, carrying oil to the Pacific Coast where it can be loaded onto tankers for export. The expansion, which began operations on May 1, 2024, tripled the pipeline's capacity to 890,000 barrels per day and opened opportunities for Canadian oil along the U.S. West Coast and in Asian markets. While oil is currently exempt from U.S. tariffs, Canada has sought to diversify its exports due to brief U.S. duties on its crude and Trump's threats to annex the country. Canada shipped about 207,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average to China since the Trans Mountain expansion ramped up to full operations in June last year, ship tracking data on Kpler showed. That was a huge increase from an average of about 7,000 bpd in the decade to 2023. The U.S. took about 173,000 bpd from the pipeline in the same period. China's top spot as the TMX buyer defies some early expectations that the U.S. would be the biggest buyer of crude shipped via the pipeline, which is owned by the C…
May 16, 2025 at 2:48 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Canadian Housing Starts Jump 30% in April.
REUTERS Canadian housing starts jump 30% in April, CMHC says an hour ago TORONTO (Reuters) -Canadian housing starts rose 30% in April compared with the previous month, a far bigger increase than was expected, data from the national housing agency showed on Thursday. The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of housing starts climbed to 278,606 units from a revised 214,205 units in March, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. Economists had expected starts to rise to 227,500. (Reporting by Fergal SmithEditing by Tomasz Janowski)
May 15, 2025 at 1:40 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Mark Carney on Humility.
Humility matters. It matters because it is an attitude to leading and governing. Not an impediment to acting. Humility is recognising that there will be surprises. I have learned that it is worth asking what could happen if things go wrong, even when you think it unlikely. What if subprime isn't contained? What if a cyberattack is successful? What if there is no deal? Humility admits the limits of our knowledge, that there are unknown unknowns which make resilience and adaptability imperative. The humble can plan for failure, even if they don't know how or when it will happen. Humility allows us to set goals before we know all the answers. If we are humble, we don't think we can make a map of the whole world to chart our course or try to put a price on every value so we can optimise. If we are hum-ble, we can recognise that answers can be found through processes that will bring them out through debate, considering different perspectives and forging consensus. The humble recognise the limits of meritocracy. Humility admits the role of good fortune and the responsibilities that success brings - the duties that should be put into the service of purpose. Being humble is recog-nising that we are custodians of our companies, communities and countries. And that all are equal within. That the common good trumps utilitarianism.
May 4, 2025 at 5:15 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
144 Conservatives
Elections Canada table showing BQ. 22 CPC 144 GRN. 1 LPC. 169 NDP 7
May 2, 2025 at 11:22 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Several things changed, some quite dramatically. The total votes cast and the Green vote both increased in the 10-15% range. The Con vote increased by 61%, while the Lib vote more than doubled. Meanwhile the NDP collapsed, losing 87% of their vote. Probably many of those went Con.
Year CPC Green LPC NDP Total 2021 12,537 17,872 8,297 8,938 51,704 2025 20,234 19,859 17,292 1,157 59,084 % Chng 61% 11% 108% -87% 14%
May 1, 2025 at 6:06 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Conservative political advertising in Victoria, BC, delivered to our mail box on the day after the election, combining bad taste with even worse timing. Unsurprisingly, this Conservative candidate came in a distant 3rd in the election.
Scary photos of Mark Carney and Will Greaves claiming they want to decriminalize drugs and defund the police. Photo of Angus Ross, Conservative candidate, who came in a distant 3rd in the Victoria election.
April 30, 2025 at 6:49 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Canadians now fear foreign interference from the US more than from China, Russia or India. The National Post and Post Media are the tip of the foreign interference spear.
Graph showing Canadians' fear of election interference from the US rising from less than 40% a year ago to over 60% currently, more than fear of interference from China, Russia or India.
April 27, 2025 at 1:15 PM
berlinskyjohn.bsky.social
Will to Win!
VOTE TO MEET THE MOMENT - Keep Canada Strong Will Greaves - National Security Expert - Arctic and Climate Politics Your Liberal Candidate for Victoria, BC Authorized by official agent for Will Greaves
April 26, 2025 at 4:49 PM