This is perhaps the most directly targeted/seen I've felt by a post. Immediate flashbacks to my dissertation on alternative work arrangements

Last night we wrote about the geo. and poli. dist. of SNAP reliance. We walked back language to reflect that the admin stated they would resume paying. Yet here we are.

A SNAP shutdown does not punish one side. It punishes families, our neighbors, and local economies.

Read the full analysis here:

What’s next: two federal judges ordered emergency funds to continue until Congress acts.

Bottom line: even short lapses drain local spending, hitting distressed communities hardest.

SNAP shouldn’t be viewed as partisan.

51.5% of SNAP households live in Harris counties, 48.5% in Trump counties. Nationally SNAP ≈0.6% of income; but where SNAP >1% of total income 19.5% of households receive SNAP (vs 12.1% nationally).

42M of us/our neighbors rely on SNAP, nearly 12% of households and 1 in 5 children. As high as 30%+ of households in 138 distressed, mostly rural counties; even in the most well-off places it’s ~1 in 20.

@kenanfikri.bsky.social, @saraheckhardt.bsky.social, and I pulled some insight out of our data on local government transfer reliance. Read the full analysis here:

Early access cuts adult poverty by ~5 pp, with largest gains for Black adults whose parents lacked a HS diploma; deep poverty falls ~9 pp. Transfers in childhood narrow racial gaps.

Changes in documented immigrants’ Food Stamp eligibility (1996–2003) show that tighter rules cut take-up, and an added year of parental eligibility before age five boosts child health at ages 6–16.

More early-childhood access → less crime later. Each added year of FSP lowers young-adult conviction risk ~2.5%, especially for violent/felony offenses and for nonwhite children. The crime-reduction benefits exceed costs.

Early-life poverty depresses adult labor market success, lower earnings and fewer hours, but shows no clear effects on general adult health or on out-of-wedlock births/arrests. Implications for child well-being metrics and policy.

Cumulative childhood poverty has lasting scars: each additional year poor raises the odds of poverty in early/middle adulthood. Racial gaps are stark, with higher adult poverty risks for Black individuals at every exposure level.

Staggered Food Stamp rollout across counties (1960s–70s). Introduction lowers work on extensive & intensive margins—less employment and fewer hours—consistent with labor supply theory. Effects are concentrated among single-women–headed families.

Food Stamp rollout: Early-life access (pre-age 5) improves adult outcomes: +6% SD human capital, +3% SD self-sufficiency, +8% SD neighborhood quality, +1.2 years life expectancy, −0.5 pp likelihood of incarceration. marginal value of public funds ≈ 62

Study leverages the gradual Food Stamp rollout (1961–75) + PSID. Kids with access in utero/childhood show better adult health (lower metabolic syndrome). Women also achieve greater economic self-sufficiency.

USDA ERS analysis: when the economy cools, +$1B SNAP → +$1.54B GDP. The ripple adds ~$32M to farm income and ~480 full-time ag jobs. SNAP benefits are spent quickly, amplifying demand.

The biggest twist since The Sixth Sense!