Ben Glasner
@benglasner.bsky.social
Economist with the Economic Innovation Group. Ex-post-doc with the Center on Poverty & Social Policy (CPSP). Ex-Ex-Grad Student at the Evans School (UW). Tweets on policy and research. All good posts are from my dog.
Links: https://linktr.ee/bglasner
Links: https://linktr.ee/bglasner
Last night we wrote about the geo. and poli. dist. of SNAP reliance. We walked back language to reflect that the admin stated they would resume paying. Yet here we are.
A SNAP shutdown does not punish one side. It punishes families, our neighbors, and local economies.
A SNAP shutdown does not punish one side. It punishes families, our neighbors, and local economies.
November 4, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Last night we wrote about the geo. and poli. dist. of SNAP reliance. We walked back language to reflect that the admin stated they would resume paying. Yet here we are.
A SNAP shutdown does not punish one side. It punishes families, our neighbors, and local economies.
A SNAP shutdown does not punish one side. It punishes families, our neighbors, and local economies.
42M of us/our neighbors rely on SNAP, nearly 12% of households and 1 in 5 children. As high as 30%+ of households in 138 distressed, mostly rural counties; even in the most well-off places it’s ~1 in 20.
November 4, 2025 at 3:10 PM
42M of us/our neighbors rely on SNAP, nearly 12% of households and 1 in 5 children. As high as 30%+ of households in 138 distressed, mostly rural counties; even in the most well-off places it’s ~1 in 20.
1 in 5 children receive SNAP. 1 in 2 children receive assistance from at least one nutrition program.
Cannot emphasize enough how important stable access to nutrition is for everyone, and especially for kids.
Cannot emphasize enough how important stable access to nutrition is for everyone, and especially for kids.
November 1, 2025 at 3:10 PM
1 in 5 children receive SNAP. 1 in 2 children receive assistance from at least one nutrition program.
Cannot emphasize enough how important stable access to nutrition is for everyone, and especially for kids.
Cannot emphasize enough how important stable access to nutrition is for everyone, and especially for kids.
SNAP isn’t just about hardship today, it is an investment in all of our futures. Both program participants and those lucky enough to never have to be. Short-run support and long-run gains in health, safety, and economic mobility, especially for the kids who need it most.
October 29, 2025 at 5:42 PM
SNAP isn’t just about hardship today, it is an investment in all of our futures. Both program participants and those lucky enough to never have to be. Short-run support and long-run gains in health, safety, and economic mobility, especially for the kids who need it most.
Even the smartest AI in the world can’t see why the internet loves a chunky bear:
October 28, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Even the smartest AI in the world can’t see why the internet loves a chunky bear:
Who I am, why I do this, and what you’ll get here: clear, honest, usable economics.
Check the linktree for more: linktr.ee/bglasner
Check the linktree for more: linktr.ee/bglasner
October 27, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Who I am, why I do this, and what you’ll get here: clear, honest, usable economics.
Check the linktree for more: linktr.ee/bglasner
Check the linktree for more: linktr.ee/bglasner
So what is going on with wages? It is all about missed potential!
October 9, 2025 at 8:16 PM
So what is going on with wages? It is all about missed potential!
After “learning” from the failure of FBJ, the AI added a Narrative/Charisma factor. A self-named “meme coefficient.”
Then it tackled the adult bracket. The result? Last place, with 7/18 points.
Humans still reign supreme in chonk prediction.
Then it tackled the adult bracket. The result? Last place, with 7/18 points.
Humans still reign supreme in chonk prediction.
October 8, 2025 at 12:08 PM
After “learning” from the failure of FBJ, the AI added a Narrative/Charisma factor. A self-named “meme coefficient.”
Then it tackled the adult bracket. The result? Last place, with 7/18 points.
Humans still reign supreme in chonk prediction.
Then it tackled the adult bracket. The result? Last place, with 7/18 points.
Humans still reign supreme in chonk prediction.
Our totally robust experiment:
We tested ChatGPT-5 on Fat Bear Junior, scoring cubs on heft, roundness, posture, photo angle, and notes.
It did terribly. 0-for-everything.
EIG staff on the other hand picked the right winner.
We tested ChatGPT-5 on Fat Bear Junior, scoring cubs on heft, roundness, posture, photo angle, and notes.
It did terribly. 0-for-everything.
EIG staff on the other hand picked the right winner.
October 8, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Our totally robust experiment:
We tested ChatGPT-5 on Fat Bear Junior, scoring cubs on heft, roundness, posture, photo angle, and notes.
It did terribly. 0-for-everything.
EIG staff on the other hand picked the right winner.
We tested ChatGPT-5 on Fat Bear Junior, scoring cubs on heft, roundness, posture, photo angle, and notes.
It did terribly. 0-for-everything.
EIG staff on the other hand picked the right winner.
I got a PhD so I could ask ChatGPT if a bear is fat.
Like Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, the team at EIG pitted human reasoning against the machine. But our arena wasn’t a chessboard, it was the salmon-filled rivers of Alaska.
I give you: Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World! 🐻🤖
Like Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, the team at EIG pitted human reasoning against the machine. But our arena wasn’t a chessboard, it was the salmon-filled rivers of Alaska.
I give you: Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World! 🐻🤖
October 8, 2025 at 12:08 PM
I got a PhD so I could ask ChatGPT if a bear is fat.
Like Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, the team at EIG pitted human reasoning against the machine. But our arena wasn’t a chessboard, it was the salmon-filled rivers of Alaska.
I give you: Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World! 🐻🤖
Like Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, the team at EIG pitted human reasoning against the machine. But our arena wasn’t a chessboard, it was the salmon-filled rivers of Alaska.
I give you: Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World! 🐻🤖
We’ve got an extremely fun post coming out early tomorrow morning on Agglomerations.
Subscribe: agglomerations.substack.com
Subscribe: agglomerations.substack.com
October 8, 2025 at 12:05 AM
We’ve got an extremely fun post coming out early tomorrow morning on Agglomerations.
Subscribe: agglomerations.substack.com
Subscribe: agglomerations.substack.com
Yes. Nothing says “Kaldor–Hicks efficiency” like eating away at social surplus with tariffs, then using the nonexistent gains to bail out the people you just hurt.
Link in the next post.
Link in the next post.
September 25, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Yes. Nothing says “Kaldor–Hicks efficiency” like eating away at social surplus with tariffs, then using the nonexistent gains to bail out the people you just hurt.
Link in the next post.
Link in the next post.
Our design follows an 80-80 rule:
Target wage = 80% of the national median wage among hourly workers
Subsidy = 80% of the gap (Target wage - Actual wage)
Base = at least $7.25/hr
That means: Workers always come out ahead, and raises from employers still matter.
Target wage = 80% of the national median wage among hourly workers
Subsidy = 80% of the gap (Target wage - Actual wage)
Base = at least $7.25/hr
That means: Workers always come out ahead, and raises from employers still matter.
September 22, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Our design follows an 80-80 rule:
Target wage = 80% of the national median wage among hourly workers
Subsidy = 80% of the gap (Target wage - Actual wage)
Base = at least $7.25/hr
That means: Workers always come out ahead, and raises from employers still matter.
Target wage = 80% of the national median wage among hourly workers
Subsidy = 80% of the gap (Target wage - Actual wage)
Base = at least $7.25/hr
That means: Workers always come out ahead, and raises from employers still matter.
The Trump Proclamation ignores what Americans actually want.
✅ 71% of Trump voters
✅ 78% of Americans overall
…support more high-skilled immigration.
Why double down on fear and scarcity when we could build a system rooted in growth and opportunity?
✅ 71% of Trump voters
✅ 78% of Americans overall
…support more high-skilled immigration.
Why double down on fear and scarcity when we could build a system rooted in growth and opportunity?
September 20, 2025 at 5:08 PM
The Trump Proclamation ignores what Americans actually want.
✅ 71% of Trump voters
✅ 78% of Americans overall
…support more high-skilled immigration.
Why double down on fear and scarcity when we could build a system rooted in growth and opportunity?
✅ 71% of Trump voters
✅ 78% of Americans overall
…support more high-skilled immigration.
Why double down on fear and scarcity when we could build a system rooted in growth and opportunity?
It is only de jure political censorship when it originates directly from the seat of power.
Everything else is just sparkling de facto regulation of speech.
Everything else is just sparkling de facto regulation of speech.
September 18, 2025 at 5:17 PM
It is only de jure political censorship when it originates directly from the seat of power.
Everything else is just sparkling de facto regulation of speech.
Everything else is just sparkling de facto regulation of speech.
America’s housing crisis isn’t just about building more — it’s about building in the right places.
Proximity to jobs, transit, and opportunity matters.
#Housing #Innovation #HousingCosts #EconomicInnovationGroup #Economics #Construction #EconSky
Proximity to jobs, transit, and opportunity matters.
#Housing #Innovation #HousingCosts #EconomicInnovationGroup #Economics #Construction #EconSky
September 17, 2025 at 12:05 PM
America’s housing crisis isn’t just about building more — it’s about building in the right places.
Proximity to jobs, transit, and opportunity matters.
#Housing #Innovation #HousingCosts #EconomicInnovationGroup #Economics #Construction #EconSky
Proximity to jobs, transit, and opportunity matters.
#Housing #Innovation #HousingCosts #EconomicInnovationGroup #Economics #Construction #EconSky
Most of the driver of⬆️reliance is demographic given our safety net design: an aging population, ⬆️health care costs, and geo-concentration in prosperity.
Social Security + Medicare are nearly half of all transfer income. As we age, reliance rises even if the aggregate economy is healthy.
Social Security + Medicare are nearly half of all transfer income. As we age, reliance rises even if the aggregate economy is healthy.
September 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Most of the driver of⬆️reliance is demographic given our safety net design: an aging population, ⬆️health care costs, and geo-concentration in prosperity.
Social Security + Medicare are nearly half of all transfer income. As we age, reliance rises even if the aggregate economy is healthy.
Social Security + Medicare are nearly half of all transfer income. As we age, reliance rises even if the aggregate economy is healthy.
As a share of each party’s total vote, Republicans have steadily grown more dependent on voters living in high-transfer counties — from 2.4% of Republican voters in 2000 to 25.5% by 2024.
Democrats’ vote share went from 2.7% in 2000 to 16.5% in 2024, increasing but not as much.
Democrats’ vote share went from 2.7% in 2000 to 16.5% in 2024, increasing but not as much.
September 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
As a share of each party’s total vote, Republicans have steadily grown more dependent on voters living in high-transfer counties — from 2.4% of Republican voters in 2000 to 25.5% by 2024.
Democrats’ vote share went from 2.7% in 2000 to 16.5% in 2024, increasing but not as much.
Democrats’ vote share went from 2.7% in 2000 to 16.5% in 2024, increasing but not as much.
And when we sum up the votes cast in 2024 and separate them by transfer tier, we can see just how many Americans live in these transfer-reliant places and how they are voting.
September 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
And when we sum up the votes cast in 2024 and separate them by transfer tier, we can see just how many Americans live in these transfer-reliant places and how they are voting.
We don’t just look at high reliant counties. We also break out all three tiers — minimal [<15%), moderate [15–25%), and significant [25%+].
By 2024, most U.S. counties were in the moderate or significant tiers. Dems win fewer counties, but the ones they win are more populous.
By 2024, most U.S. counties were in the moderate or significant tiers. Dems win fewer counties, but the ones they win are more populous.
September 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
We don’t just look at high reliant counties. We also break out all three tiers — minimal [<15%), moderate [15–25%), and significant [25%+].
By 2024, most U.S. counties were in the moderate or significant tiers. Dems win fewer counties, but the ones they win are more populous.
By 2024, most U.S. counties were in the moderate or significant tiers. Dems win fewer counties, but the ones they win are more populous.
Roughly 90 percent of counties that are significantly reliant on government transfer programs — meaning that more than 25 percent of their total income came from transfers — went to Trump in 2024.
What other trends do we find when we scrutinize the data? [1/9] 🧵
What other trends do we find when we scrutinize the data? [1/9] 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Roughly 90 percent of counties that are significantly reliant on government transfer programs — meaning that more than 25 percent of their total income came from transfers — went to Trump in 2024.
What other trends do we find when we scrutinize the data? [1/9] 🧵
What other trends do we find when we scrutinize the data? [1/9] 🧵
The Real Housewives of Orange County are just a short drive away from struggling neighborhoods. The new Distressed Communities Index from the Economic Innovation Group helps us see how OC glam sits among nearby distress.
September 11, 2025 at 1:28 PM
The Real Housewives of Orange County are just a short drive away from struggling neighborhoods. The new Distressed Communities Index from the Economic Innovation Group helps us see how OC glam sits among nearby distress.
Reshoring high-tech manufacturing by taxing the very parts our factories rely on will not work.
Great new analysis from Connor O'Brien and @jasonhehehe.bsky.social
Great new analysis from Connor O'Brien and @jasonhehehe.bsky.social
September 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Reshoring high-tech manufacturing by taxing the very parts our factories rely on will not work.
Great new analysis from Connor O'Brien and @jasonhehehe.bsky.social
Great new analysis from Connor O'Brien and @jasonhehehe.bsky.social
Unemployment among Black Americans is creeping into a recession territory:
September 5, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Unemployment among Black Americans is creeping into a recession territory: