6/ However, in this case it appears from the initial open-source evidence available that last night’s operation did not inflict significant further damage to the facility and further attacks are therefore likely in the near future.

5/ Assessment: Ukraine’s overnight attack on the Saratov Refinery was probably prompted by resumption of processing
at the Russian site. Ukraine is highly likely to repeat this type of spoiling operation as the damage inflicted on Russia’s refinery capacity since early Aug begins to be repaired.

4/ The NASA FIRMS system identifies a thermal hotspot located to the south of the complex at a point where gas-flaring associated with normal refinery operations is usually to be seen, rather than in the main section of the facility.

3/ However, the return of the thermal signature associated with gas-flaring to the south of the facility (which had disappeared following the mid-August attack) on 5 September may indicate that repairs had reached a point at which some processing of crude oil had been resumed.

2/ The published video purporting to show night-time fires at the site as well as ground-based air-defence fires in operation during the attack. The refinery was previously struck on 10 August and its operations had been suspended due to damage according to reporting by Bloomberg on 12 August.