6/ However, in this case it appears from the initial open-source evidence available that last night’s operation did not inflict significant further damage to the facility and further attacks are therefore likely in the near future.

5/ Assessment: Ukraine’s overnight attack on the Saratov Refinery was probably prompted by resumption of processing
at the Russian site. Ukraine is highly likely to repeat this type of spoiling operation as the damage inflicted on Russia’s refinery capacity since early Aug begins to be repaired.

1/ On the morning of 16 September, the Ukrainian General Staff briefed that its forces, including Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, had once again attacked the oil refinery complex in Saratov overnight on 15-16 September.