Basil Halperin
@basilhalperin.com
Assistant professor of economics @ UVA
basilhalperin.com
basilhalperin.com
Introducing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship:
The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –
The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –
March 28, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Introducing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship:
The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –
The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –
Reposted by Basil Halperin
In the latest episode of our podcast, Justified Posteriors, we discuss whether interest rates should rise in anticipation of AGI (as predicted by @basilhalperin.com). Our priors are quite different! Do check it out.
empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...
empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...
If the Robots Are Coming, Why Aren't Interest Rates Higher?
Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates
empiricrafting.substack.com
March 11, 2025 at 4:14 PM
In the latest episode of our podcast, Justified Posteriors, we discuss whether interest rates should rise in anticipation of AGI (as predicted by @basilhalperin.com). Our priors are quite different! Do check it out.
empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...
empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...
The best piece I've read on “what it feels like from the inside” to do theory research:
“Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”
“Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”
A new post: On Deriving Things
(about the time spent back and forth between clipboard whiteboard blackboard & keyboard)
tecunningham.github.io/posts/2020-1...
(about the time spent back and forth between clipboard whiteboard blackboard & keyboard)
tecunningham.github.io/posts/2020-1...
February 17, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The best piece I've read on “what it feels like from the inside” to do theory research:
“Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”
“Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”
Trump tariff proposal reportedly reduced to only cover “critical” security imports — Leopold Aschenbrenner has an old, interesting alternative to these tariffs:
Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics:
www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...
Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics:
www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...
January 6, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Trump tariff proposal reportedly reduced to only cover “critical” security imports — Leopold Aschenbrenner has an old, interesting alternative to these tariffs:
Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics:
www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...
Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics:
www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...
Soo no discussion of this Tyler post on “The future of the scientist in a world with advanced AI” because it’s too depressing or?
“The humans will gather the data” 😬
“The humans will gather the data” 😬
January 5, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Soo no discussion of this Tyler post on “The future of the scientist in a world with advanced AI” because it’s too depressing or?
“The humans will gather the data” 😬
“The humans will gather the data” 😬
need an RCT to know whether tweeting about an AEA session actually increases attendance:
***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!
***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!
January 2, 2025 at 8:47 PM
need an RCT to know whether tweeting about an AEA session actually increases attendance:
***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!
***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!
Why has the cost of shorting stocks gone up? Daytrader effect?
January 2, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Why has the cost of shorting stocks gone up? Daytrader effect?
In the limit… jobs that can’t be automated accrue all the value:
1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work?
2. Social tasks: lab managers?
Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?
1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work?
2. Social tasks: lab managers?
Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?
Which subfield of economics, other than the economics of AI, will AI be the biggest complement to?
December 21, 2024 at 10:38 PM
In the limit… jobs that can’t be automated accrue all the value:
1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work?
2. Social tasks: lab managers?
Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?
1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work?
2. Social tasks: lab managers?
Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?
Reposted by Basil Halperin
3) Arguably, price and wage stickiness is primarily due to fixed re-optimization costs.
@basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting)
basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...
@basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting)
basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...
basilhalperin.com
December 9, 2024 at 7:01 PM
3) Arguably, price and wage stickiness is primarily due to fixed re-optimization costs.
@basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting)
basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...
@basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting)
basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...
Reposted by Basil Halperin
New working paper!
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation, the new working paper by Eric Olav Chen, @alexghersen.bsky.social and Sami Petersen is now available to read here: globalprioritiesinstitute.org/imperfect-re...
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation - Eric Olav Chen, Alexis Ghersengorin and Sami Petersen
A principal wants to deploy an artificial intelligence (AI) system to perform some task. But the AI may be misaligned and aim to pursue a conflicting objective. The principal cannot restrict its optio...
globalprioritiesinstitute.org
December 12, 2024 at 1:57 PM
New working paper!
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
Reposted by Basil Halperin
.@zmazlish.bsky.social joins the show to discuss how, contrary to some narratives, real earnings growth has been relatively weak over past few years when properly measured and, therefore, the public's discontent was grounded in more than just vibes. Transcript here: www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...
Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI
Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some re
www.mercatus.org
December 6, 2024 at 3:00 PM
.@zmazlish.bsky.social joins the show to discuss how, contrary to some narratives, real earnings growth has been relatively weak over past few years when properly measured and, therefore, the public's discontent was grounded in more than just vibes. Transcript here: www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...
Reposted by Basil Halperin
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation, the new working paper by Eric Olav Chen, @alexghersen.bsky.social and Sami Petersen is now available to read here: globalprioritiesinstitute.org/imperfect-re...
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation - Eric Olav Chen, Alexis Ghersengorin and Sami Petersen
A principal wants to deploy an artificial intelligence (AI) system to perform some task. But the AI may be misaligned and aim to pursue a conflicting objective. The principal cannot restrict its optio...
globalprioritiesinstitute.org
December 4, 2024 at 3:42 PM
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation, the new working paper by Eric Olav Chen, @alexghersen.bsky.social and Sami Petersen is now available to read here: globalprioritiesinstitute.org/imperfect-re...
1. How correlated are high-frequency FFR shocks across CME vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket
2. Event long-short index on Taiwan invasion risk ("what does the market think about Taiwan invasion risk"), I would be sorely tempted to coauthor on this one
2. Event long-short index on Taiwan invasion risk ("what does the market think about Taiwan invasion risk"), I would be sorely tempted to coauthor on this one
December 4, 2024 at 4:28 PM
1. How correlated are high-frequency FFR shocks across CME vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket
2. Event long-short index on Taiwan invasion risk ("what does the market think about Taiwan invasion risk"), I would be sorely tempted to coauthor on this one
2. Event long-short index on Taiwan invasion risk ("what does the market think about Taiwan invasion risk"), I would be sorely tempted to coauthor on this one
Tentative takeaways for macro theory, based on Zach's empirics showing wage growth has been uniformly weak in the recent episode:
1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?
1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?
November 18, 2024 at 4:29 PM
Tentative takeaways for macro theory, based on Zach's empirics showing wage growth has been uniformly weak in the recent episode:
1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?
1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?
This from @zmazlish.bsky.social is THE analysis of wages/income under Biden-Powell
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflat...
TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflat...
TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)
November 12, 2024 at 9:33 PM
This from @zmazlish.bsky.social is THE analysis of wages/income under Biden-Powell
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflat...
TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflat...
TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)
surveying 14th century peasants on 'the impacts of higher wages'
number one answer: mass death, boils
number one answer: mass death, boils
November 12, 2024 at 6:19 AM
surveying 14th century peasants on 'the impacts of higher wages'
number one answer: mass death, boils
number one answer: mass death, boils
November 9, 2024 at 9:09 PM