Introducing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship:

The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –

In the latest episode of our podcast, Justified Posteriors, we discuss whether interest rates should rise in anticipation of AGI (as predicted by @basilhalperin.com). Our priors are quite different! Do check it out.

empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...

The best piece I've read on “what it feels like from the inside” to do theory research:

“Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”

Trump tariff proposal reportedly reduced to only cover “critical” security imports — Leopold Aschenbrenner has an old, interesting alternative to these tariffs:

Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics:
www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...

Soo no discussion of this Tyler post on “The future of the scientist in a world with advanced AI” because it’s too depressing or?

“The humans will gather the data” 😬

need an RCT to know whether tweeting about an AEA session actually increases attendance:

***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!

Why has the cost of shorting stocks gone up? Daytrader effect?

In the limit… jobs that can’t be automated accrue all the value:
1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work?
2. Social tasks: lab managers?

Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?

3) Arguably, price and wage stickiness is primarily due to fixed re-optimization costs.
@basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting)
basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...

New working paper!

We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.

A short thread on the key highlights.

.@zmazlish.bsky.social joins the show to discuss how, contrary to some narratives, real earnings growth has been relatively weak over past few years when properly measured and, therefore, the public's discontent was grounded in more than just vibes. Transcript here: www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...

Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation, the new working paper by Eric Olav Chen, @alexghersen.bsky.social and Sami Petersen is now available to read here: globalprioritiesinstitute.org/imperfect-re...

1. How correlated are high-frequency FFR shocks across CME vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket

2. Event long-short index on Taiwan invasion risk ("what does the market think about Taiwan invasion risk"), I would be sorely tempted to coauthor on this one

Tentative takeaways for macro theory, based on Zach's empirics showing wage growth has been uniformly weak in the recent episode:
1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?

This from @zmazlish.bsky.social is THE analysis of wages/income under Biden-Powell
jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflat...

TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)

surveying 14th century peasants on 'the impacts of higher wages'

number one answer: mass death, boils

"average weighted tariff >6% by Q4 2024"...

context: currently 2.5%

kalshi.com/markets/kxla...