Bartłomiej Gajos
@bartekgajos.bsky.social
PhD. Historian. I work for the Polish think-tank Mieroszewski Centre, covering Russia and Ukraine. Currently based in Brussels.
Bergedorfer ’94: German minister blunt on NATO, Swiss expert warned on Ukraine, Polish envoy exposed Russia’s lack of goals. Putin & Kokoshin hinted post-91 borders were “unsatisfactory.” No one spoke of a NATO “promise.”
I unpack the story on my Substack:
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/putin-at-b...
I unpack the story on my Substack:
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/putin-at-b...
September 5, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Bergedorfer ’94: German minister blunt on NATO, Swiss expert warned on Ukraine, Polish envoy exposed Russia’s lack of goals. Putin & Kokoshin hinted post-91 borders were “unsatisfactory.” No one spoke of a NATO “promise.”
I unpack the story on my Substack:
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/putin-at-b...
I unpack the story on my Substack:
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/putin-at-b...
Folks, I’m cooking something for you on my Substack - dropping tomorrow. In 1994, Putin, Sobchak, Ruhe, Meyer-Landrut, and others discussed the future of Russia and its relations with the West. The protocol from Bergedorfer adds a lot to our understanding of Putin and the Russian elite.
August 6, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Folks, I’m cooking something for you on my Substack - dropping tomorrow. In 1994, Putin, Sobchak, Ruhe, Meyer-Landrut, and others discussed the future of Russia and its relations with the West. The protocol from Bergedorfer adds a lot to our understanding of Putin and the Russian elite.
Thanks to a post by Wolfgang Ischinger, I learned about this event and accessed the full transcript. What Putin said back then isn’t exactly how Ischinger quoted it. Judging from the protocol, Ischinger didn’t participate in the event himself.
8/x
8/x
August 4, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Thanks to a post by Wolfgang Ischinger, I learned about this event and accessed the full transcript. What Putin said back then isn’t exactly how Ischinger quoted it. Judging from the protocol, Ischinger didn’t participate in the event himself.
8/x
8/x
Digression: you might recognize the name: he was the father of Alexander Rahr, the better-known pro-Russian lobbyist. 6/x
August 4, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Digression: you might recognize the name: he was the father of Alexander Rahr, the better-known pro-Russian lobbyist. 6/x
But the metaphor didn’t originate with Putin. It likely came from Gleb Rahr, an émigré nationalist who in 1991 described Lenin’s USSR as a “time bomb” beneath the Russian nation.
His broadcasts in Radio Svoboda framed the 1922 founding of the USSR as anti-Russian by design. 5/x
His broadcasts in Radio Svoboda framed the 1922 founding of the USSR as anti-Russian by design. 5/x
August 4, 2025 at 2:17 PM
But the metaphor didn’t originate with Putin. It likely came from Gleb Rahr, an émigré nationalist who in 1991 described Lenin’s USSR as a “time bomb” beneath the Russian nation.
His broadcasts in Radio Svoboda framed the 1922 founding of the USSR as anti-Russian by design. 5/x
His broadcasts in Radio Svoboda framed the 1922 founding of the USSR as anti-Russian by design. 5/x
What came first: Russian imperialism or NATO enlargement?
This isn’t your mem historian’s take that traces every war back to the Neolithic.
We’re talking about formative political debates - those that shaped Putin’s worldview in the 1990s.
My📜 in Nationalities Papers.🧵
This isn’t your mem historian’s take that traces every war back to the Neolithic.
We’re talking about formative political debates - those that shaped Putin’s worldview in the 1990s.
My📜 in Nationalities Papers.🧵
August 4, 2025 at 2:17 PM
What came first: Russian imperialism or NATO enlargement?
This isn’t your mem historian’s take that traces every war back to the Neolithic.
We’re talking about formative political debates - those that shaped Putin’s worldview in the 1990s.
My📜 in Nationalities Papers.🧵
This isn’t your mem historian’s take that traces every war back to the Neolithic.
We’re talking about formative political debates - those that shaped Putin’s worldview in the 1990s.
My📜 in Nationalities Papers.🧵
This from Navalnaya is troubling. “Crimea belongs to Ukraine, but de facto it’s in Russian hands. It becomes a complicated issue, millions of people have Russian passports… even Ukrainian authorities admit it’s complicated,”.
Normalization of occupation without openly endorsing?
Normalization of occupation without openly endorsing?
June 28, 2025 at 8:57 PM
This from Navalnaya is troubling. “Crimea belongs to Ukraine, but de facto it’s in Russian hands. It becomes a complicated issue, millions of people have Russian passports… even Ukrainian authorities admit it’s complicated,”.
Normalization of occupation without openly endorsing?
Normalization of occupation without openly endorsing?
A much-needed panel on Russian opposition and society at RUTA.
Key takeaway: when Russian opposition leaders adapt to society as it is - imperial and apathetic in its majority - they risk replicating the regime.
@ervitz.bsky.social, Franziska Davies, V. Pekar.
Key takeaway: when Russian opposition leaders adapt to society as it is - imperial and apathetic in its majority - they risk replicating the regime.
@ervitz.bsky.social, Franziska Davies, V. Pekar.
June 28, 2025 at 8:27 AM
A much-needed panel on Russian opposition and society at RUTA.
Key takeaway: when Russian opposition leaders adapt to society as it is - imperial and apathetic in its majority - they risk replicating the regime.
@ervitz.bsky.social, Franziska Davies, V. Pekar.
Key takeaway: when Russian opposition leaders adapt to society as it is - imperial and apathetic in its majority - they risk replicating the regime.
@ervitz.bsky.social, Franziska Davies, V. Pekar.
Some quick stats:
– Stalin: 57 mentions
– Hitler: 75
– Putin: 21
Seems expected in a WWII-themed book… until you look closer at tone.
9/x
– Stalin: 57 mentions
– Hitler: 75
– Putin: 21
Seems expected in a WWII-themed book… until you look closer at tone.
9/x
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Some quick stats:
– Stalin: 57 mentions
– Hitler: 75
– Putin: 21
Seems expected in a WWII-themed book… until you look closer at tone.
9/x
– Stalin: 57 mentions
– Hitler: 75
– Putin: 21
Seems expected in a WWII-themed book… until you look closer at tone.
9/x
If the anti-Stalin camp is shrinking - a trend the Kremlin has quietly supported - why not lean into it? In the book 'On the 80th Anniversary of the Great Victory' allegedly authored by members of Russia’s Security Council Stalin appears 57 times and in 12 photos. 8/x
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
If the anti-Stalin camp is shrinking - a trend the Kremlin has quietly supported - why not lean into it? In the book 'On the 80th Anniversary of the Great Victory' allegedly authored by members of Russia’s Security Council Stalin appears 57 times and in 12 photos. 8/x
That calculus no longer holds. In 2014, 19% of Russians viewed Stalin with fear or aversion. Now? Just 8%.
Meanwhile, admiration jumped from 40% to 63%.
7/x
Meanwhile, admiration jumped from 40% to 63%.
7/x
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
That calculus no longer holds. In 2014, 19% of Russians viewed Stalin with fear or aversion. Now? Just 8%.
Meanwhile, admiration jumped from 40% to 63%.
7/x
Meanwhile, admiration jumped from 40% to 63%.
7/x
I still remember visiting Tambov in 2017. A Stalin bust had just gone up - gifted by South Ossetian communists in thanks for Russia’s role in the 2008 war with Georgia.
5/x
5/x
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I still remember visiting Tambov in 2017. A Stalin bust had just gone up - gifted by South Ossetian communists in thanks for Russia’s role in the 2008 war with Georgia.
5/x
5/x
Back in 2023, a Stalin bust was unveiled outside the Battle of Stalingrad Museum - just ahead of Putin’s visit to Volgograd. This time, local authorities gave their blessing. 4/x
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Back in 2023, a Stalin bust was unveiled outside the Battle of Stalingrad Museum - just ahead of Putin’s visit to Volgograd. This time, local authorities gave their blessing. 4/x
I recently wrote a piece on the Russian elite’s evolving approach to Stalin, using data science methods. The inspiration came from the book allegedly about the IIWW published by the Russia's Security Council. 2/x
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I recently wrote a piece on the Russian elite’s evolving approach to Stalin, using data science methods. The inspiration came from the book allegedly about the IIWW published by the Russia's Security Council. 2/x
We have a new poll from the Levada on whom Russians consider the most outstanding figures of all time. Stalin remains at the top. Imagine if German officials or public praised Hitler’s strategic brilliance in 1938. Let me explain🧵
June 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
We have a new poll from the Levada on whom Russians consider the most outstanding figures of all time. Stalin remains at the top. Imagine if German officials or public praised Hitler’s strategic brilliance in 1938. Let me explain🧵
The 3rd edition of the Mieroszewski Roundtable has concluded.
We hosted three brilliant authors whose books contribute to the debate on Russia, China, Germany and global economy:
Michał Lubina,
Katja Hoyer,
Maximilian Hess.
My key takeaways:🧵
We hosted three brilliant authors whose books contribute to the debate on Russia, China, Germany and global economy:
Michał Lubina,
Katja Hoyer,
Maximilian Hess.
My key takeaways:🧵
June 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
The 3rd edition of the Mieroszewski Roundtable has concluded.
We hosted three brilliant authors whose books contribute to the debate on Russia, China, Germany and global economy:
Michał Lubina,
Katja Hoyer,
Maximilian Hess.
My key takeaways:🧵
We hosted three brilliant authors whose books contribute to the debate on Russia, China, Germany and global economy:
Michał Lubina,
Katja Hoyer,
Maximilian Hess.
My key takeaways:🧵
We’ve just kicked off the Mieroszewski Roundtable. @ervitz.bsky.social is pressing Max Hess with tough questions on economic warfare and sanctions.
His key point: if we want to stop Russia, we need to start having a serious conversation about oil and gas.
His key point: if we want to stop Russia, we need to start having a serious conversation about oil and gas.
June 9, 2025 at 10:10 PM
We’ve just kicked off the Mieroszewski Roundtable. @ervitz.bsky.social is pressing Max Hess with tough questions on economic warfare and sanctions.
His key point: if we want to stop Russia, we need to start having a serious conversation about oil and gas.
His key point: if we want to stop Russia, we need to start having a serious conversation about oil and gas.
The 3rd edition of the Mieroszewski Roundtable is coming up.
Each year, we invite three top-notch authors whose books are relevant to today’s political landscape.
This year, we’re tackling: China–Russia relations, Germany’s Ostpolitik, economic consequences of the war.
More soon.
Each year, we invite three top-notch authors whose books are relevant to today’s political landscape.
This year, we’re tackling: China–Russia relations, Germany’s Ostpolitik, economic consequences of the war.
More soon.
June 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
The 3rd edition of the Mieroszewski Roundtable is coming up.
Each year, we invite three top-notch authors whose books are relevant to today’s political landscape.
This year, we’re tackling: China–Russia relations, Germany’s Ostpolitik, economic consequences of the war.
More soon.
Each year, we invite three top-notch authors whose books are relevant to today’s political landscape.
This year, we’re tackling: China–Russia relations, Germany’s Ostpolitik, economic consequences of the war.
More soon.
What does a historian do on a Saturday evening? He searches for Stalin in a book allegedly written by members of the Russian Security Council. A new blog post will be available soon. If you haven't read the last one, check it out:
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/victory-re...
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/victory-re...
June 7, 2025 at 5:23 PM
What does a historian do on a Saturday evening? He searches for Stalin in a book allegedly written by members of the Russian Security Council. A new blog post will be available soon. If you haven't read the last one, check it out:
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/victory-re...
bartekgajos.substack.com/p/victory-re...
“Special Military Operation”: 100 times.
The ratio is 1.81:1. That's still quite a significant overrepresentation, considering the book is about the Second World War. 4/x
The ratio is 1.81:1. That's still quite a significant overrepresentation, considering the book is about the Second World War. 4/x
June 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM
“Special Military Operation”: 100 times.
The ratio is 1.81:1. That's still quite a significant overrepresentation, considering the book is about the Second World War. 4/x
The ratio is 1.81:1. That's still quite a significant overrepresentation, considering the book is about the Second World War. 4/x
I ran a textual analysis to quantify how often certain phrases appear.
“Great Patriotic War”: 181 times. 3/x
“Great Patriotic War”: 181 times. 3/x
June 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM
I ran a textual analysis to quantify how often certain phrases appear.
“Great Patriotic War”: 181 times. 3/x
“Great Patriotic War”: 181 times. 3/x
This book isn’t about history - it’s about what Putin’s elites are doing, and plan to keep doing, in Ukraine.
I used data science to analyze a WWII-themed publication by Russia’s Security Council.
The results are revealing - and chilling. Let’s dive in🧵
I used data science to analyze a WWII-themed publication by Russia’s Security Council.
The results are revealing - and chilling. Let’s dive in🧵
June 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM
This book isn’t about history - it’s about what Putin’s elites are doing, and plan to keep doing, in Ukraine.
I used data science to analyze a WWII-themed publication by Russia’s Security Council.
The results are revealing - and chilling. Let’s dive in🧵
I used data science to analyze a WWII-themed publication by Russia’s Security Council.
The results are revealing - and chilling. Let’s dive in🧵
7/
Meanwhile, Russia tries to spin the narrative abroad.
A Reuters piece, likely sourced by the Kremlin, floated energy as part of US-Russia talks – even reviving whispers about Nord Stream.
Meanwhile, Russia tries to spin the narrative abroad.
A Reuters piece, likely sourced by the Kremlin, floated energy as part of US-Russia talks – even reviving whispers about Nord Stream.
May 13, 2025 at 9:00 AM
7/
Meanwhile, Russia tries to spin the narrative abroad.
A Reuters piece, likely sourced by the Kremlin, floated energy as part of US-Russia talks – even reviving whispers about Nord Stream.
Meanwhile, Russia tries to spin the narrative abroad.
A Reuters piece, likely sourced by the Kremlin, floated energy as part of US-Russia talks – even reviving whispers about Nord Stream.
4/
But here’s what’s really telling: Moscow is bracing for impact.
Putin’s latest propaganda doc kicks off with... sanctions.
He drinks Russian kefir. He praises domestic products.
A bizarre flex – but a clear signal: "we're ready."
But here’s what’s really telling: Moscow is bracing for impact.
Putin’s latest propaganda doc kicks off with... sanctions.
He drinks Russian kefir. He praises domestic products.
A bizarre flex – but a clear signal: "we're ready."
May 13, 2025 at 9:00 AM
4/
But here’s what’s really telling: Moscow is bracing for impact.
Putin’s latest propaganda doc kicks off with... sanctions.
He drinks Russian kefir. He praises domestic products.
A bizarre flex – but a clear signal: "we're ready."
But here’s what’s really telling: Moscow is bracing for impact.
Putin’s latest propaganda doc kicks off with... sanctions.
He drinks Russian kefir. He praises domestic products.
A bizarre flex – but a clear signal: "we're ready."
2/
The EU finally says: enough.
A draft energy roadmap bans all Russian fossil fuels and nuclear imports by 2027. No more spot contracts, no new long-term deals, and a legal mandate for national phase-out plans.
The EU finally says: enough.
A draft energy roadmap bans all Russian fossil fuels and nuclear imports by 2027. No more spot contracts, no new long-term deals, and a legal mandate for national phase-out plans.
May 13, 2025 at 9:00 AM
2/
The EU finally says: enough.
A draft energy roadmap bans all Russian fossil fuels and nuclear imports by 2027. No more spot contracts, no new long-term deals, and a legal mandate for national phase-out plans.
The EU finally says: enough.
A draft energy roadmap bans all Russian fossil fuels and nuclear imports by 2027. No more spot contracts, no new long-term deals, and a legal mandate for national phase-out plans.