The result is a fragile state of affairs. The ceasefire addresses the immediate violence but none of the core structural problems. What options does Pakistan have when its military and economic pressure have failed to show results? #geopolitics #foreignpolicy #afghanistan #pakistan #securitystudies

More fundamentally, there is the issue of the Durand Line. The refusal of any Afghan government to recognize this 1893 colonial-era border is central to Afghan national identity. For the Taliban, formally accepting it would be a catastrophic political concession.

For years, Pakistan's strategic calculus was based on supporting the Afghan Taliban to project influence. With the Taliban in power, that leverage is gone. This has left Islamabad in a strategic bind. Use military and economic coercion against a government it helped create, with little success.

This deployment could therefore be seen as setting the chessboard for a potential 2026-2027 conflict timeline. What other second and third-order effects of this buildup should we be considering? Curious to hear your thoughts on the matter. #Geopolitics #USChina #NationalSecurity #ForeignPolicy

Venezuela represents a potential proxy threat. A U.S. force posture that effectively neutralizes Venezuela's ability to act on China's behalf—militarily or otherwise—is a preemptive strategic move.

Beyond the obvious pressure on the Maduro regime, let's consider the China angle. The strategic importance of the Panama Canal cannot be overstated for U.S. force projection. In any INDOPACOM conflict scenario, the ability to rapidly swing naval assets from the Atlantic is non-negotiable.

What potential pitfalls do you see? Comment Below 👇

#Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Diplomacy #UkraineWar #USRussiaRelations

5/5 The key question now is about intent vs. outcome. Is this summit a genuine effort to find an off-ramp, or is it a tactic for all sides to gain time, manage domestic perceptions, and prepare for the next phase of the conflict? The initial advisor talks next week will provide the first clues.

4/5 The choice of Budapest is a masterstroke of realpolitik. It leverages Hungary's unique political position and its withdrawal from the ICC to create the sole viable venue for this meeting, bypassing a major legal and diplomatic obstacle for Putin.

3/5 For President Zelensky, the situation is precarious. While the threat of Tomahawks benefits Ukraine's position, he left Washington without the weapons themselves. He is reliant on the U.S. as a mediator but also risks being sidelined in a bilateral deal cut between Washington and Moscow.

2/5 This presents Putin with a difficult choice: a) engage in talks he has previously avoided, or b) risk Ukraine acquiring weapons that could alter the strategic landscape by holding key Russian infrastructure at risk. His agreement to meet suggests the threat is being taken seriously.

1/5 The core strategy from the White House appears to be one of "coercive diplomacy." By making the potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine a public discussion point, the U.S. has created a powerful, non-military pressure point on the Kremlin.