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Aucoin Analytics
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Geopolitical intelligence expert, writer, and ex-SOF Intelligence analyst. Host of This Week Explained podcast, focused on deciphering complex geopolitical events. Updates on Russia, the Middle East, and beyond—follow for need-to-know analysis.
The US-Hungary energy waiver is more than just an energy deal—it's a geopolitical signal. I explain why this is a diplomatic win and a message to Putin: come to the negotiating table in good faith, there are deals to be made. www.youtube.com/watch?v=U13q...
#Hungary #Russia #Ukraine #Trump #Energy
Ex-Intel Pro on US-Hungary Energy Deal: A Diplomatic Win for Trump & a Signal to Putin?
YouTube video by This Week Explained
www.youtube.com
November 9, 2025 at 8:28 PM
November 2, 2025 at 8:04 PM
📣 New Podcast! "Sanctions, Ceasefires, and Gunboats" on @Spreaker
Sanctions, Ceasefires, and Gunboats
The world is walking a tightrope between desperately holding on to peace and the aggressive projection of power that threatens to shatter it. This week, we analyze the West's hardened stance on Russia, the precarious "yellow line" defining Gaza's future , and a massive U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean that may have less to do with cartels and more to do with China. Episode Highlights - A New Strategy on Russia: We break down the abrupt U.S. shift from diplomacy to direct sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies and the EU's unprecedented—and risky—plan to use €140 billion in frozen Russian assets as a "reparations loan" for Ukraine. - Gaza's Fragile Truce: An exploration of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, the political battle over the "yellow line" boundary that some in Israel's government hope to make permanent , and the stern U.S. warning that support for Israel is not a "blank check" for West Bank annexation. - Gunboat Diplomacy in the Caribbean: A deep dive into the massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, examining the three strategic layers: the official war on cartels , the unspoken pressure campaign against Venezuela's Maduro regime , and the long-term goal of securing the Panama Canal from Chinese influence ahead of a potential 2026 crisis. - The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border War: We explain the dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban , a conflict fueled by Taliban protection of the TTP terrorist group and rooted in a century-old dispute over the colonial-era Durand Line.
www.spreaker.com
October 27, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Let's take a closer look at the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict. While recent clashes are grabbing headlines, understanding the situation requires looking at two distinct but intertwined layers: a modern militant crisis and a deep historical grievance.
October 25, 2025 at 9:11 AM
There's a multi-layered geopolitical chess match unfolding in the Caribbean, and the stated counter-narcotics mission is likely just the top layer. The massive U.S. military deployment signals a strategic re-evaluation of the region. Let's dig into the potential long-term play here. A 🧵
October 24, 2025 at 4:00 AM
📣 New Podcast! "The New World Disorder: Ukraine's Fate, Gaza's Power Vacuum, and the Gen-Z Uprising" on @Spreaker #affairs #budapest #foreign #gaza #geopolitics #global #intelligence #international #missiles #policy #power #putin #relations #shifting #summit #tomahawk #trump #ukraine #war
The New World Disorder: Ukraine's Fate, Gaza's Power Vacuum, and the Gen-Z Uprising
This week, we explore a world in flux as global power dynamics are redrawn on multiple fronts. From high-stakes diplomacy that could change the map of the war in Ukraine to a brutal power vacuum in Gaza and a generational revolution in Africa, the old rules are fracturing. Episode Highlights - Ukraine's Diplomatic Gambit: A planned summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest aims to end the "inglorious' War". Meanwhile, President Trump uses the potential transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as a powerful negotiation tool to bring Russia to the table. - Gaza's Violent Peace: With the war between Israel and Hamas over, a power vacuum has ignited an internal battle for control. Hamas is using brute force to hunt down rivals and assert absolute authority, leading to a "war of all against all" as armed gangs and clans settle old scores. - The Gen-Z Revolution in Madagascar: A youth-led protest movement against poverty and corruption has toppled the government, leading to a military takeover. We analyze this trend and where this dynamic of youth-driven political change could spread next, from Morocco to Peru. - U.S. Pressure on Venezuela: The Trump administration escalates a pressure campaign against the Maduro regime, using B-52 bomber flights, lethal strikes on "narco-terrorists," and the public acknowledgment of covert CIA operations inside the country.
www.spreaker.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:18 AM
I joined NTD News to break down the upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Hungary. 🇭🇺
We discussed the strategic implications for NATO, the war in Ukraine, and the future of U.S.-Russia relations.
#geopolitics #foreignpolicy #Trump #Putin #Hungary #NTDNews #War

youtu.be/_9LIkBn18fs
youtu.be
October 20, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Beyond the headlines of this week's US-Russia-Ukraine diplomacy lies a complex strategic chess match. The announced Budapest summit is not just a meeting; it's the culmination of a high-risk diplomatic gambit centered on the threat of escalation. Let's break it down. 🧵
October 18, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Trump's Gaza Ceasefire and The Rising Authoritarian Axis
This week, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza offers a glimmer of hope after two years of devastating conflict. But as President Trump brokers peace in the Middle East, a new and powerful 'axis of power' between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is changing the face of global conflict forever. Episode Highlights - The Gaza Ceasefire: We break down the secret diplomacy and high-stakes pressure from the Trump administration that led to the Israel-Hamas deal. We also look at the fragile reality on the ground, where a multinational force is overseeing a complex hostage exchange under incredibly tense conditions. - Escalation in Ukraine: The Trump administration is considering a dramatic policy shift by supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a move that could allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine's own drone campaign is successfully crippling up to 38% of Russia's oil refining capacity, impacting its economy and war effort. - The New Axis: We explore the deepening military and economic alignment between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Learn how China is supplying 80% of the critical electronics for Russia's drones , North Korea is providing 40% of its artillery shells , and Iran is exporting its drone technology across the globe. - Venezuela's Failed Offer: Discover the details of a secret, months-long negotiation where Venezuela's President Maduro offered the Trump administration a dominant stake in the country's oil and mineral wealth in a desperate bid for legitimacy.
www.spreaker.com
October 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Ukraine's Counteroffensive, Gaza's Invasion, and a Nuclear Pact
This week, we unpack a world on the brink. From Ukraine's daring counteroffensive striking deep inside Russia to Israel's high-stakes ground invasion of Gaza, we analyze the critical decisions and their devastating consequences. Is Russia's escalating pressure on NATO a distraction, or part of a larger, more dangerous game? Episode Highlights - Ukraine's Two-Front Strategy: Ukrainian forces are not only reclaiming territory in the east but are also crippling Russia's war economy by targeting critical oil facilities deep inside the country. - Israel's Gaza Offensive: We break down why the Israeli government initiated a major ground offensive against the advice of its own security chiefs, sparking a humanitarian catastrophe and a chilling ultimatum from Hamas regarding the remaining hostages. - The New Nuclear Axis: Intelligence reports allege that Russia has supplied North Korea with a nuclear reactor and other key components for a submarine, a payment for munitions that could fundamentally alter the security landscape in Asia. - US vs. Venezuela: Tensions in the Caribbean are reaching a boiling point as the U.S. conducts lethal strikes against alleged "narcoterrorists," prompting a confrontational military response from Venezuela and bringing the two nations closer to direct conflict
www.spreaker.com
September 22, 2025 at 9:09 AM
September 16, 2025 at 3:48 AM
Lines Crossed Israel's Qatar Strike & Russia's NATO Test
This week, geopolitical red lines are crossed, throwing decades of established rules into question. We break down Israel's unprecedented and failed strike inside Qatar that has shattered regional alliances, and we analyze the moment NATO forces fired on Russian drones over Poland for the first time.Episode Highlights - Israel's Doha Gamble: The anatomy of the failed assassination attempt in Doha , how the mission was pushed by Prime Minister Netanyahu against the advice of his own intelligence and military chiefs , and the diplomatic firestorm it created with the U.S. and a betrayed Gulf. - NATO's Red Line: For the first time, a NATO member has fired shots in an incident related to the war in Ukraine after Russian drones violated Polish airspace. We explore the competing narratives—deliberate provocation or accident—and NATO's new 'Eastern Sentry' mission. - The War on Four Fronts: An inside look at the escalating conflict in Ukraine, from Russia’s heaviest aerial bombardment of Kyiv and Ukraine’s asymmetric drone strikes on Russian oil terminals to the hidden war over foreign-made microchips found in Russian missiles. - Nepal's Digital Revolution: How a government's attempt to ban 26 social media platforms backfired , igniting a powder keg of youth-led anger over corruption that toppled the government in a matter of days.
www.spreaker.com
September 15, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Nepal is but a singular example in a long line of global protests.
September 13, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Why is there still no ceasefire? It boils down to one core problem: their goals are mutually exclusive.
September 9, 2025 at 5:00 AM
The Axis of Convenience: A New Global Order Emerges
This week, we unpack the formation of a new pragmatic alliance in Beijing designed to challenge the West. From Vladimir Putin's direct "red line" threat in Ukraine to a controversial U.S. military strike in the Caribbean, we ask: is the unipolar moment officially over? Episode Highlights - Putin's Ultimatum: Russia’s president issues a direct threat, stating any Western troops in Ukraine, including peacekeepers, will be considered "legitimate targets," as allies debate the systemic financial risks of seizing frozen Russian assets. - Gaza's Stalemate: A deep dive into the stalled hostage negotiations, where Hamas seeks survival and Israel seeks its opponent's elimination, leading to a growing divide between Israel's political leadership and its military command. - The Axis of Convenience: Inside China's massive Victory Day parade, where the presence of Russia, North Korea, India, and Iran signals the rise of a pragmatic bloc built to counter Western influence. - A World Rebalancing: We explore how punitive U.S. tariffs are pushing India toward a tactical alliance with China and analyze the legality of the White House's decision to use lethal military force against a cartel vessel in international waters.
www.spreaker.com
September 8, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Russia has launched its largest air attack of the war on Ukraine overnight, striking central Kyiv and hitting the main government building for the first time. President Zelenskiy has issued a direct appeal to allies for stronger, more comprehensive air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities.
September 7, 2025 at 12:38 PM
See the trend before it becomes the headline.
Earlier this week, we analyzed how U.S. policy was pushing India towards China. Yesterday, President Trump confirmed our assessment in his own words.
This is the clarity we provide. If you want to understand why things happen, you're in the right place.
September 6, 2025 at 7:28 AM
A major geopolitical shift is unfolding. Punitive U.S. tariffs, intended to isolate Russia, are having the unintended consequence of pushing India, a key U.S. partner, into a tactical rapprochement with its primary adversary, China.
September 1, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Israel's Expanding Shadow War & Ukraine's Diplomatic Deadlock
This week, we analyze the breakdown of diplomacy in Ukraine following the Trump-Putin summit and explore the widening conflict in the Middle East, as Israel launches a new offensive in Gaza and targets Houthi leadership in Yemen. Is military force becoming the only language of negotiation on the world stage? Episode Highlights - Ukraine's Diplomatic Deadlock: An inside look at why peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, with the U.S. stepping back from its role as chief negotiator. We also discuss the chilling assassination of a high-profile Ukrainian political figure in Lviv and its use as a psychological warfare tactic. - Gaza's Deepening Crisis: As the IDF declares Gaza City a combat zone and resumes its offensive , we examine the devastating humanitarian impact, including a declared famine , and the internal Israeli political push for the annexation of the Gaza Strip. - Israel's Decapitation Strategy: An analysis of Israel's targeted strike against the Houthi leadership in Yemen. We explore why this tactic is successful at disrupting groups like the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah but ultimately fails to defeat their underlying ideology.
www.spreaker.com
September 1, 2025 at 9:15 AM
📣 New Podcast! "The New Path to Peace? Ukraine, Gaza, & The Resurgence of ISIS" on @Spreaker #africa #counterterrorism #diplomacy #gaza #geopolitics #hamas #intelligence #isis #israel #netanyahu #putin #russia #ukraine #zelensky
The New Path to Peace? Ukraine, Gaza, & The Resurgence of ISIS
This week, we break down the latest diplomatic efforts in the war in Ukraine, the dangerous new tactics complicating aid efforts in Gaza, and the brutal resurgence of ISIS on the African continent. Is a path to peace finally on the table, and what are the new global threats we need to be watching? Episode Highlights - Ukraine Diplomacy: We discuss the new framework for a long-term peace deal in Ukraine, including a shift in Russia's position on security guarantees and the potential for a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky. - Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis: We explore the dangerous new tactic of militants impersonating aid workers, the ongoing stalemate in ceasefire negotiations, and the internal political pressures facing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. - ISIS Resurgence: We analyze the brutal comeback of ISIS in Africa, the strategic use of their newsletter Al-Naba to broadcast their intentions, and the chilling, religiously motivated violence targeting Christian communities.
www.spreaker.com
August 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
The recent data on the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia presents a compelling case study in the evolution of economic statecraft. The traditional playbook—cut off access to the dollar and the global financial system—is running into the hard reality of a multi-polar world.
August 24, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Zelenskyy is meeting Trump with a "historic" U.S. security guarantee on the table. But can a NATO-style promise solve an impossible land swap problem? We break down the key contradiction. Watch now: youtu.be/VY8a5cDcpIg
The Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting: A "Historic" Promise vs. an Impossible Reality? | NTD News Today
YouTube video by This Week Explained
youtu.be
August 18, 2025 at 3:41 AM
August 13, 2025 at 11:53 AM