Stephen Schwartz
@atomicanalyst.bsky.social
Editor/Co-author, “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” • Nonresident Senior Fellow, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists • Nuclear weapons expert (history, policy, costs, accidents) and tracker of the nuclear “Football.”
Yesterday morning, @penguinsix.bsky.social spotted VP Vance’s Marine Corps aide outside the Eisenhower Executive Office Building walking from his motorcade and carrying his duplicate “Football.” VPs have been accompanied by a backup Presidential Emergency Satchel 24/7 since Walter Mondale (1977-81).
November 11, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Yesterday morning, @penguinsix.bsky.social spotted VP Vance’s Marine Corps aide outside the Eisenhower Executive Office Building walking from his motorcade and carrying his duplicate “Football.” VPs have been accompanied by a backup Presidential Emergency Satchel 24/7 since Walter Mondale (1977-81).
"Brazil" was ahead of its time.
November 10, 2025 at 8:08 PM
"Brazil" was ahead of its time.
From this 1999 book, per standard operating procedure, "The fuzes were to be set to detonate the bomb at 1200 m above the water. After checking the river for shipping both visually and with radar, and on consultation with the aircraft commander and pilot, Major [Newton] Brown released the bomb ...."
November 10, 2025 at 7:39 PM
From this 1999 book, per standard operating procedure, "The fuzes were to be set to detonate the bomb at 1200 m above the water. After checking the river for shipping both visually and with radar, and on consultation with the aircraft commander and pilot, Major [Newton] Brown released the bomb ...."
And even then—31 years later—the Department of Defense was exceedingly vague about exactly what had happened, or where this Broken Arrow had occurred.
November 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
And even then—31 years later—the Department of Defense was exceedingly vague about exactly what had happened, or where this Broken Arrow had occurred.
It exploded at ~2,500 ft., scattering ~100 lbs. of uranium-238. Strategic Air Command covered up the incident (partly because nuclear weapons at Goose Bay were a secret), claiming the blast was a 500-lb. conventional practice bomb. The DoD did not officially confirm it was an atomic bomb until 1981.
November 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
It exploded at ~2,500 ft., scattering ~100 lbs. of uranium-238. Strategic Air Command covered up the incident (partly because nuclear weapons at Goose Bay were a secret), claiming the blast was a 500-lb. conventional practice bomb. The DoD did not officially confirm it was an atomic bomb until 1981.
75 yrs ago today, a B-50 bomber ferrying a Mark-4 atomic bomb (minus its plutonium pit or capsule) from Canadian Forces Base Goose Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador, to Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona, developed engine trouble and jettisoned the bomb over the St. Lawrence River near Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec.
November 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
75 yrs ago today, a B-50 bomber ferrying a Mark-4 atomic bomb (minus its plutonium pit or capsule) from Canadian Forces Base Goose Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador, to Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona, developed engine trouble and jettisoned the bomb over the St. Lawrence River near Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec.
Tonight, Germany marks both the 87th anniversary of Kristallnacht—the “Night of Broken Glass” (1938)—and the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989). Hatred versus joy. Separateness versus unity. Oppression versus freedom. Death versus life. All in the span of just 51 years.
November 9, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Tonight, Germany marks both the 87th anniversary of Kristallnacht—the “Night of Broken Glass” (1938)—and the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989). Hatred versus joy. Separateness versus unity. Oppression versus freedom. Death versus life. All in the span of just 51 years.
On November 20, Secretary of Defense Harold Brown sent President Carter a Top Secret memo describing the false alarm‘s causes and lessons learned. Brown assessed that the early warning system‘s mechanical, procedural, and human elements “are fundamentally sound.” nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/276...
November 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
On November 20, Secretary of Defense Harold Brown sent President Carter a Top Secret memo describing the false alarm‘s causes and lessons learned. Brown assessed that the early warning system‘s mechanical, procedural, and human elements “are fundamentally sound.” nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/276...
President Carter was only told about this serious false alarm four days later—and only indirectly—in a memorandum from Secretary of State Cyrus Vance describing Brezhnev's message. Carter replied, “This incident was never reported to me, nor has any analysis of the reason been given to me. Why not?”
November 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
President Carter was only told about this serious false alarm four days later—and only indirectly—in a memorandum from Secretary of State Cyrus Vance describing Brezhnev's message. Carter replied, “This incident was never reported to me, nor has any analysis of the reason been given to me. Why not?”
This greatly concerned Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev, who ordered his ambassador to deliver a private oral message to President Jimmy Carter on November 13 about his “extreme anxiety” over the incident, which was widely reported in the press and may also have been detected by Soviet intelligence.
November 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
This greatly concerned Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev, who ordered his ambassador to deliver a private oral message to President Jimmy Carter on November 13 about his “extreme anxiety” over the incident, which was widely reported in the press and may also have been detected by Soviet intelligence.
During this false alarm, NORAD activated all air defense interceptors and at least 10 planes took off, as did the president’s “doomsday plane.” Some air traffic controllers were ordered to immediately ground all commercial aircraft.
The president and the secretary of defense were never notified.
The president and the secretary of defense were never notified.
November 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
During this false alarm, NORAD activated all air defense interceptors and at least 10 planes took off, as did the president’s “doomsday plane.” Some air traffic controllers were ordered to immediately ground all commercial aircraft.
The president and the secretary of defense were never notified.
The president and the secretary of defense were never notified.
At 8:50 AM today in 1979, data from a simulated massive Soviet nuclear decapitation attack running at NORAD were somehow sent to live warning displays there, SAC, the National Military Command Center, and the ANMCC at Raven Rock, triggering a false alarm and a ~6-minute threat assessment conference.
November 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
At 8:50 AM today in 1979, data from a simulated massive Soviet nuclear decapitation attack running at NORAD were somehow sent to live warning displays there, SAC, the National Military Command Center, and the ANMCC at Raven Rock, triggering a false alarm and a ~6-minute threat assessment conference.
Discovering the “old man” is really a computer, Maj. French (James Coburn) declares “There's your tyrant, urging the townspeople to revolt and destroy it for warning that a just-discovered cache of canned food is unsafe. All except Goldsmith, their leader, comply, eat the food, and subsequently die.
November 8, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Discovering the “old man” is really a computer, Maj. French (James Coburn) declares “There's your tyrant, urging the townspeople to revolt and destroy it for warning that a just-discovered cache of canned food is unsafe. All except Goldsmith, their leader, comply, eat the food, and subsequently die.
Today in 1963, the “Twilight Zone” episode “The Old Man in the Cave” aired for the first time on CBS. Set in 1974, 10 years after a nuclear war, survivors in a remote town must choose whether to continue to follow the advice of their leader and an unseen old man or a cadre of newly-arrived soldiers.
November 8, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Today in 1963, the “Twilight Zone” episode “The Old Man in the Cave” aired for the first time on CBS. Set in 1974, 10 years after a nuclear war, survivors in a remote town must choose whether to continue to follow the advice of their leader and an unseen old man or a cadre of newly-arrived soldiers.
This is an official film record of the Round C test from the collection of the Imperial War Museum (the description says there is commentary, but the film is silent). www.iwm.org.uk/collections/...
November 8, 2025 at 5:10 PM
This is an official film record of the Round C test from the collection of the Imperial War Museum (the description says there is commentary, but the film is silent). www.iwm.org.uk/collections/...
Today in 1957 in the Pacific Ocean, 2 miles south of Christmas Island (Kiritimati)w, the United Kingdom conducted Round C (Operation Grapple X), its first successful H-bomb test. A Valiant bomber dropped an experimental device which exploded at an altitude of ~7,382 feet. The yield was 1.8 Megatons.
November 8, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Today in 1957 in the Pacific Ocean, 2 miles south of Christmas Island (Kiritimati)w, the United Kingdom conducted Round C (Operation Grapple X), its first successful H-bomb test. A Valiant bomber dropped an experimental device which exploded at an altitude of ~7,382 feet. The yield was 1.8 Megatons.
The White House Navy aide was on “Football” duty this evening for Trump’s latest trip to his Mar-a-Lago club/home in Palm Beach, Florida. The ~45-lb. satchel accompanies Trump 24/7, enabling him alone to authorize the use of any of our ~1,770 deployed nuclear weapons—up to 900 on alert—at any time.
November 8, 2025 at 5:29 AM
The White House Navy aide was on “Football” duty this evening for Trump’s latest trip to his Mar-a-Lago club/home in Palm Beach, Florida. The ~45-lb. satchel accompanies Trump 24/7, enabling him alone to authorize the use of any of our ~1,770 deployed nuclear weapons—up to 900 on alert—at any time.
And back on September 17-21, the Navy conducted four flight tests of unarmed Trident II D5LE SLBMs from an unidentified submerged Ohio-class submarine off Florida’s east coast and down the Eastern Test Range in the Atlantic Ocean (the map is for the September 21 test). www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
November 7, 2025 at 5:30 PM
And back on September 17-21, the Navy conducted four flight tests of unarmed Trident II D5LE SLBMs from an unidentified submerged Ohio-class submarine off Florida’s east coast and down the Eastern Test Range in the Atlantic Ocean (the map is for the September 21 test). www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
The accident only became public four months later, after Lt. Cdr. Walt Fitzpatrick, a Navy whistleblower, posted the details on his web site, at which point the Washington State congressional delegation, and even a member of the Canadian parliament, began demanding answers.
November 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
The accident only became public four months later, after Lt. Cdr. Walt Fitzpatrick, a Navy whistleblower, posted the details on his web site, at which point the Washington State congressional delegation, and even a member of the Canadian parliament, began demanding answers.
The Navy did not publicly disclose this serious accident, although it quickly fired the three senior officers leading the Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific, relieving them of duty and reassigning them. It also initiated courts-martial proceedings against three enlisted men on lesser charges.
November 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
The Navy did not publicly disclose this serious accident, although it quickly fired the three senior officers leading the Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific, relieving them of duty and reassigning them. It also initiated courts-martial proceedings against three enlisted men on lesser charges.
Bangor (now part of Naval Base Kitsap) and its co-located Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific—home to an estimated 1,600 W76-1, W76-2, and W88 thermonuclear warheads and more than 200 Trident II D5LE submarine-launched ballistic missiles for 8 Ohio-class SSBNs—are located only 20 miles from Seattle.
November 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Bangor (now part of Naval Base Kitsap) and its co-located Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific—home to an estimated 1,600 W76-1, W76-2, and W88 thermonuclear warheads and more than 200 Trident II D5LE submarine-launched ballistic missiles for 8 Ohio-class SSBNs—are located only 20 miles from Seattle.
Today in 2003 at Bangor Naval Submarine Base, Washington State, a Trident I C4 SLBM being hoisted from launch tube 16 on the USS Georgia struck an access ladder mistakenly left in the tube, tearing a 9-inch gash in the nose cone and nearly hitting the third-stage motor and a 100-kiloton W76 warhead.
November 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Today in 2003 at Bangor Naval Submarine Base, Washington State, a Trident I C4 SLBM being hoisted from launch tube 16 on the USS Georgia struck an access ladder mistakenly left in the tube, tearing a 9-inch gash in the nose cone and nearly hitting the third-stage motor and a 100-kiloton W76 warhead.
Particularly extraordinary is the “End of Tour Report Addendum” by Lt. Gen. Leonard H. Perroots, assistant chief of staff for intelligence for US Air Forces Europe during ABLE ARCHER. Perroots saw Soviet forces go on alert but recommended not responding in kind. nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/210...
November 7, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Particularly extraordinary is the “End of Tour Report Addendum” by Lt. Gen. Leonard H. Perroots, assistant chief of staff for intelligence for US Air Forces Europe during ABLE ARCHER. Perroots saw Soviet forces go on alert but recommended not responding in kind. nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/210...
Today in 1983, NATO began ABLE ARCHER 83, a European-wide nuclear weapons release exercise that paranoid Soviet leaders feared was a cover story for a nuclear first strike and “may have inadvertently placed our relations with the Soviet Union on a hair trigger.” nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/eb...
November 7, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Today in 1983, NATO began ABLE ARCHER 83, a European-wide nuclear weapons release exercise that paranoid Soviet leaders feared was a cover story for a nuclear first strike and “may have inadvertently placed our relations with the Soviet Union on a hair trigger.” nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/eb...
Military censors decided this May 1944 US Army/Warner Bros. training cartoon for troops returning home (directed by Chuck Jones and featuring the voice of Mel Blanc as Private Snafu) came too close to inadvertently revealing the Top Secret atomic bomb and shelved it. archive.org/details/Priv...
November 6, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Military censors decided this May 1944 US Army/Warner Bros. training cartoon for troops returning home (directed by Chuck Jones and featuring the voice of Mel Blanc as Private Snafu) came too close to inadvertently revealing the Top Secret atomic bomb and shelved it. archive.org/details/Priv...