Thomas Gaudin
@astrotom.bsky.social
Science Planner for the NASA Swift Science Operations Team. Astrophysics Ph.D. Student @penn_state.
Just a guy who loves the stars and loves watching sports.
Just a guy who loves the stars and loves watching sports.
Absolute highway robbery in Huntsville tonight. 3 points to CFC in a match where they got thoroughly outplayed.
2 goals against the run of play. A penalty saved in the 90’. What a game.
2 goals against the run of play. A penalty saved in the 90’. What a game.
May 18, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Absolute highway robbery in Huntsville tonight. 3 points to CFC in a match where they got thoroughly outplayed.
2 goals against the run of play. A penalty saved in the 90’. What a game.
2 goals against the run of play. A penalty saved in the 90’. What a game.
Introducing MLS Next Pro’s Race to the Playoffs!
We’re 8 matches into a 28 match season. Over the next 10 matches, we will see teams start to make their push for early playoff qualification. Use this as a handy guide to see when teams cross last year’s “playoff safety zone”!
We’re 8 matches into a 28 match season. Over the next 10 matches, we will see teams start to make their push for early playoff qualification. Use this as a handy guide to see when teams cross last year’s “playoff safety zone”!
May 4, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Introducing MLS Next Pro’s Race to the Playoffs!
We’re 8 matches into a 28 match season. Over the next 10 matches, we will see teams start to make their push for early playoff qualification. Use this as a handy guide to see when teams cross last year’s “playoff safety zone”!
We’re 8 matches into a 28 match season. Over the next 10 matches, we will see teams start to make their push for early playoff qualification. Use this as a handy guide to see when teams cross last year’s “playoff safety zone”!
Data from yesterday’s Chattanooga FC game. For the one of the first times this season, CFC underperforms in a draw instead of in a win or loss. Ancelin’s breakaway in the 81’ ends up being the difference.
We may be seeing some regression to the mean happening. You can’t play that lucky forever!
We may be seeing some regression to the mean happening. You can’t play that lucky forever!
May 4, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Data from yesterday’s Chattanooga FC game. For the one of the first times this season, CFC underperforms in a draw instead of in a win or loss. Ancelin’s breakaway in the 81’ ends up being the difference.
We may be seeing some regression to the mean happening. You can’t play that lucky forever!
We may be seeing some regression to the mean happening. You can’t play that lucky forever!
I duplicated this plot for the MLS Next Pro season. Chattanooga FC’s value makes no sense at all. 1.6 points above expected over a 6 match stretch is an insane run of form for the Blues.
It doesn’t feel sustainable, but it’s a hell of a ride while it lasts.
It doesn’t feel sustainable, but it’s a hell of a ride while it lasts.
April 23, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I duplicated this plot for the MLS Next Pro season. Chattanooga FC’s value makes no sense at all. 1.6 points above expected over a 6 match stretch is an insane run of form for the Blues.
It doesn’t feel sustainable, but it’s a hell of a ride while it lasts.
It doesn’t feel sustainable, but it’s a hell of a ride while it lasts.
Last but not least, we have all of this data in table form. Current Elos, xG data, and a justice table. Chattanooga and Atlanta again stick out. St. Louis looks really good out of the gate.
Let’s see what the next month holds for the league!
Let’s see what the next month holds for the league!
April 2, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Last but not least, we have all of this data in table form. Current Elos, xG data, and a justice table. Chattanooga and Atlanta again stick out. St. Louis looks really good out of the gate.
Let’s see what the next month holds for the league!
Let’s see what the next month holds for the league!
Not every team has had their home opener yet, so take this one with even more grains of salt. I’m just putting it out there so we can compare it to what it will look like later in the season.
April 2, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Not every team has had their home opener yet, so take this one with even more grains of salt. I’m just putting it out there so we can compare it to what it will look like later in the season.
I’m anxious about the Chattanooga match tonight, so I cooked up a few xG plots for MLS Next Pro to help calm me down.
Interesting to see how lucky some teams are running, including Chattanooga (noisy sample of 3-4 games). North Texas surely cannot keep giving up over 3 goals per game.
Interesting to see how lucky some teams are running, including Chattanooga (noisy sample of 3-4 games). North Texas surely cannot keep giving up over 3 goals per game.
April 2, 2025 at 2:57 PM
I’m anxious about the Chattanooga match tonight, so I cooked up a few xG plots for MLS Next Pro to help calm me down.
Interesting to see how lucky some teams are running, including Chattanooga (noisy sample of 3-4 games). North Texas surely cannot keep giving up over 3 goals per game.
Interesting to see how lucky some teams are running, including Chattanooga (noisy sample of 3-4 games). North Texas surely cannot keep giving up over 3 goals per game.
With MLS NEXT Pro Matchday 2 about to kick off, I decided to run some calculations. Based on the Elo ratings that I derived a few months ago, I can forecast the match outcomes of MLSNP games.
Here are the implied odds for the matches tonight. Let’s see how the Tom Model does throughout the season!
Here are the implied odds for the matches tonight. Let’s see how the Tom Model does throughout the season!
March 13, 2025 at 9:11 PM
With MLS NEXT Pro Matchday 2 about to kick off, I decided to run some calculations. Based on the Elo ratings that I derived a few months ago, I can forecast the match outcomes of MLSNP games.
Here are the implied odds for the matches tonight. Let’s see how the Tom Model does throughout the season!
Here are the implied odds for the matches tonight. Let’s see how the Tom Model does throughout the season!
After a week traveling around Iceland, we finally got lucky with the Northern Lights! Thankful to finally get clear skies and dense solar winds to witness an auroral light show.
I’ve seen a lot of astronomical events, but watching the aurorae dance above us one of my favorites that I’ve seen! 🔭
I’ve seen a lot of astronomical events, but watching the aurorae dance above us one of my favorites that I’ve seen! 🔭
March 9, 2025 at 9:34 AM
After a week traveling around Iceland, we finally got lucky with the Northern Lights! Thankful to finally get clear skies and dense solar winds to witness an auroral light show.
I’ve seen a lot of astronomical events, but watching the aurorae dance above us one of my favorites that I’ve seen! 🔭
I’ve seen a lot of astronomical events, but watching the aurorae dance above us one of my favorites that I’ve seen! 🔭
Since I’ve had so much success with Elo-based analysis of international soccer, I decided to bring it to a domestic league to try it out.
I thus have created my own Elo ratings system for all MLS Next Pro teams! What is attached is the final Elo rating of all teams after each season.
I thus have created my own Elo ratings system for all MLS Next Pro teams! What is attached is the final Elo rating of all teams after each season.
January 3, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Since I’ve had so much success with Elo-based analysis of international soccer, I decided to bring it to a domestic league to try it out.
I thus have created my own Elo ratings system for all MLS Next Pro teams! What is attached is the final Elo rating of all teams after each season.
I thus have created my own Elo ratings system for all MLS Next Pro teams! What is attached is the final Elo rating of all teams after each season.
I also have these same plots with the select group of retired players if you want a comparison. Let me know if you want to see other plots from my individual match data/Elo dataset. There is a lot of information to pull that I haven't thought of yet!
November 25, 2024 at 3:15 PM
I also have these same plots with the select group of retired players if you want a comparison. Let me know if you want to see other plots from my individual match data/Elo dataset. There is a lot of information to pull that I haven't thought of yet!
You can do the same thing with assists. Somehow LDLT having the highest per 90 assist rate in the pool had escaped my notice, but he is not doing it against good teams. Mostly seems to be feasting against teams like Grenada or Trinidad in the Nation's League.
November 25, 2024 at 3:15 PM
You can do the same thing with assists. Somehow LDLT having the highest per 90 assist rate in the pool had escaped my notice, but he is not doing it against good teams. Mostly seems to be feasting against teams like Grenada or Trinidad in the Nation's League.
Next, we filter out just the goal contribution rate and the Elo that those goals were scored against. Ideally, you would want to score goals frequently against good teams. There are some guys here who don't beat the "CONCACAF Merchants" allegations. Haji Wright's WC goal props him up here.
November 25, 2024 at 3:15 PM
Next, we filter out just the goal contribution rate and the Elo that those goals were scored against. Ideally, you would want to score goals frequently against good teams. There are some guys here who don't beat the "CONCACAF Merchants" allegations. Haji Wright's WC goal props him up here.
You can also plot the goal contributions versus minutes played. The thing that sticks out most is that Pulisic is just in a class of his own among this group of players.
You can also see a group of contributors forming who need more playing time and some guys who need to step it up.
You can also see a group of contributors forming who need more playing time and some guys who need to step it up.
November 25, 2024 at 3:15 PM
You can also plot the goal contributions versus minutes played. The thing that sticks out most is that Pulisic is just in a class of his own among this group of players.
You can also see a group of contributors forming who need more playing time and some guys who need to step it up.
You can also see a group of contributors forming who need more playing time and some guys who need to step it up.
The USMNT tables for player stats compared to opponent Elo naturally lend themselves to some scatter plots to learn about the player pool. This first one is average Elo of minutes compared to goal contributions per 90.
Besides Vazquez and Pepi, you get a decent snapshot of the current #USMNT pool.
Besides Vazquez and Pepi, you get a decent snapshot of the current #USMNT pool.
November 25, 2024 at 3:15 PM
The USMNT tables for player stats compared to opponent Elo naturally lend themselves to some scatter plots to learn about the player pool. This first one is average Elo of minutes compared to goal contributions per 90.
Besides Vazquez and Pepi, you get a decent snapshot of the current #USMNT pool.
Besides Vazquez and Pepi, you get a decent snapshot of the current #USMNT pool.
Yesterday, I was fortunate to have the opportunity to visit NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center for Swift’s 20th Anniversary.
Unexpectedly, while we were there, we were fortunate to have a few minutes to watch the integration of the Roman Space Telescope with its science payload. 🔭
Unexpectedly, while we were there, we were fortunate to have a few minutes to watch the integration of the Roman Space Telescope with its science payload. 🔭
November 21, 2024 at 5:03 PM
Yesterday, I was fortunate to have the opportunity to visit NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center for Swift’s 20th Anniversary.
Unexpectedly, while we were there, we were fortunate to have a few minutes to watch the integration of the Roman Space Telescope with its science payload. 🔭
Unexpectedly, while we were there, we were fortunate to have a few minutes to watch the integration of the Roman Space Telescope with its science payload. 🔭
Happy 20th Anniversary to the Niel Gehrels Swift Observatory!!
20 years ago today, Swift launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Since then, it has contributed to so much science and found some really cool objects. Here’s to many more years of astronomy with Swift! #Swift20 🔭
20 years ago today, Swift launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Since then, it has contributed to so much science and found some really cool objects. Here’s to many more years of astronomy with Swift! #Swift20 🔭
November 20, 2024 at 12:32 PM
Happy 20th Anniversary to the Niel Gehrels Swift Observatory!!
20 years ago today, Swift launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Since then, it has contributed to so much science and found some really cool objects. Here’s to many more years of astronomy with Swift! #Swift20 🔭
20 years ago today, Swift launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Since then, it has contributed to so much science and found some really cool objects. Here’s to many more years of astronomy with Swift! #Swift20 🔭
The other filter that I put in place is for Away and Neutral matches. This mostly covers World Cup Qualifying and the World Cup, but there are some Nation's League matches and a few friendlies that make it in as well.
November 19, 2024 at 8:46 PM
The other filter that I put in place is for Away and Neutral matches. This mostly covers World Cup Qualifying and the World Cup, but there are some Nation's League matches and a few friendlies that make it in as well.
I have a few different filters as well. This filters out all friendlies and gives just the stats for competitive matches.
November 19, 2024 at 8:46 PM
I have a few different filters as well. This filters out all friendlies and gives just the stats for competitive matches.
At this point, I have compiled a very detailed spreadsheet of individual match data for all active and a few select retired USMNT players. After the November window, here are the numbers. It is interesting to see how productive players are and compare it to the difficulty of their opponents! #USMNT
November 19, 2024 at 8:46 PM
At this point, I have compiled a very detailed spreadsheet of individual match data for all active and a few select retired USMNT players. After the November window, here are the numbers. It is interesting to see how productive players are and compare it to the difficulty of their opponents! #USMNT
One thing I’m watching for over the next few years for the USMNT is Christian Pulisic’s production compared to the historical production of Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey.
At about the halfway mark of their caps, Puli is running ahead of Dempsey and with Donovan on goal contributions.
At about the halfway mark of their caps, Puli is running ahead of Dempsey and with Donovan on goal contributions.
November 14, 2024 at 7:55 PM
One thing I’m watching for over the next few years for the USMNT is Christian Pulisic’s production compared to the historical production of Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey.
At about the halfway mark of their caps, Puli is running ahead of Dempsey and with Donovan on goal contributions.
At about the halfway mark of their caps, Puli is running ahead of Dempsey and with Donovan on goal contributions.
Ok #USMNT BlueSky, here are some stats on the US National Team player pool. The first plot tracks minutes versus goal contributions. The second plot tracks goal contributions and weights minutes by the Elo of US opponents.
Interesting data and shows just how valuable Christian Pulisic is!
Interesting data and shows just how valuable Christian Pulisic is!
November 13, 2024 at 8:27 PM
Ok #USMNT BlueSky, here are some stats on the US National Team player pool. The first plot tracks minutes versus goal contributions. The second plot tracks goal contributions and weights minutes by the Elo of US opponents.
Interesting data and shows just how valuable Christian Pulisic is!
Interesting data and shows just how valuable Christian Pulisic is!
Since I’m new to 🔭 BlueSky, I figure I should introduce myself!
My name is Thomas. I’m a 3rd year Ph.D. Student! I study Be/X-ray Binaries using Swift Observatory data.
I work with multiwavelength time series data to study these binaries, discovering new systems and learning about known systems.
My name is Thomas. I’m a 3rd year Ph.D. Student! I study Be/X-ray Binaries using Swift Observatory data.
I work with multiwavelength time series data to study these binaries, discovering new systems and learning about known systems.
November 13, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Since I’m new to 🔭 BlueSky, I figure I should introduce myself!
My name is Thomas. I’m a 3rd year Ph.D. Student! I study Be/X-ray Binaries using Swift Observatory data.
I work with multiwavelength time series data to study these binaries, discovering new systems and learning about known systems.
My name is Thomas. I’m a 3rd year Ph.D. Student! I study Be/X-ray Binaries using Swift Observatory data.
I work with multiwavelength time series data to study these binaries, discovering new systems and learning about known systems.