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assertspirituality.bsky.social
@assertspirituality.bsky.social
700 followers 350 following 150 posts
Assertive Spirituality is a public scholarship project that advocates toward healthier systems and communication and away from unhealthy systems and practices (such as Christian nationalism). Founder: DS Leiter
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mirthdal.bsky.social
3/ Though regime change can occur w/as little as 3.5% of the population, these movements must also have...

"momentum, organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability"

--> Get out on the streets AGAIN & AGAIN, every weekend, every opportunity...

www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...
Extract from the URL / PDF posted in the skeet: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-05/Erica%20Chenoweth_2020-005.pdf Summary The “3.5% rule” refers to the claim that no government has withstood a challenge of 3.5% of their population mobilized against it during a peak event. In this brief paper, I address some of the common questions I have received about the 3.5% rule, as well as several updates from more recent work on this topic. Four key takeaways are as follows: • The 3.5% figure is a descriptive statistic based on a sample of historical movements. It is not necessarily a prescriptive one, and no one can see the future. Trying to achieve the threshold without building a broader public constituency does not guarantee success in the future. • The 3.5% participation metric may be useful as a rule of thumb in most cases; however, other factors—momentum, organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability—are likely as important as large-scale participation in achieving movement success and are often precursors to achieving 3.5% participation. • New research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak. This suggests that there has been at least one exception to the 3.5% rule, and that the rule is a tendency, rather than a law. • Large peak participation size is associated with movement success. However, most mass nonviolent movements that have succeeded have done so even without achieving 3.5% popular participation.
April 6, 2025 at 8:11 PM
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mirthdal.bsky.social
2/ Erica Chenoweth, who has studied regime change from 1900 to present, discovered that nonviolent protests are TWICE as likely to result in regime change compared to armed conflict

- and the amazing power of everyday people, protesting together

She's posted Q&A here:
bsky.app/profile/chen...
chenoweth.bsky.social Erica Chenoweth @chenoweth.bsky.social · Apr 1
Lately I've seen many references to the 3.5% rule. A few years ago I pulled together this Q&A on potential uses and misuses of this statistic. www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...
The cover page for a discussion paper called "Questions, Answers, and Some Cautionary Updates Regarding the 3.5% Rule" by Erica Chenoweth. In the image, peaceful protesters can be seen in front of the US Capitol building.
April 6, 2025 at 8:11 PM
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voidbraun.bsky.social
My favorite sign today: “Old? Pissed off? Welcome to Grantifa!” held by an old guy
April 6, 2025 at 12:49 AM