@ashishkt.bsky.social
Reposted
2-year market-based inflation expectations up 10bps to 3.45%. Highest since June 2022 when inflation was 9%
April 3, 2025 at 1:18 PM
2-year market-based inflation expectations up 10bps to 3.45%. Highest since June 2022 when inflation was 9%
Reposted
I borrowed this metaphor, but I don't know from where paulkrugman.substack.com/p/america-is...
America is Trapped in a Burning Tesla
Surprise! The madman stuff wasn’t an act
paulkrugman.substack.com
March 5, 2025 at 1:34 PM
I borrowed this metaphor, but I don't know from where paulkrugman.substack.com/p/america-is...
Reposted
The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
March 10, 2025 at 9:31 PM
The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
Reposted
Good Krugman piece on what happens when you let a reality TV show star run the economy paulkrugman.substack.com/p/autocracy-...
MAGA is Bad for Business
And business owners were deluded to believe otherwise
paulkrugman.substack.com
March 31, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Good Krugman piece on what happens when you let a reality TV show star run the economy paulkrugman.substack.com/p/autocracy-...
Reposted
It could mean that the world financial system melts down when investors realize that Elon Musk may selectively default on US debt. Just saying.
What...does any of this mean
www.reuters.com/markets/us/t...
www.reuters.com/markets/us/t...
February 10, 2025 at 12:06 AM
It could mean that the world financial system melts down when investors realize that Elon Musk may selectively default on US debt. Just saying.
Reposted
Musk and Trump are both in the habit of stiffing people they owe money. If markets even suspect that this habit will extend to Treasuries, God help us 2/
February 10, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Musk and Trump are both in the habit of stiffing people they owe money. If markets even suspect that this habit will extend to Treasuries, God help us 2/
Reposted
For those not familiar with how financial markets work, US Treasuries are the ultimate safe asset, used as collateral for everything. Even a hint that some Treasuries might not be honored could bring everything to a screeching halt 1/
February 10, 2025 at 12:48 AM
For those not familiar with how financial markets work, US Treasuries are the ultimate safe asset, used as collateral for everything. Even a hint that some Treasuries might not be honored could bring everything to a screeching halt 1/
Reposted
The muted market reaction to Trump's tariff and Treasury threats suggests that investors discount whatever he says as the ravings of a confused, weak old man. And this is working to his advantage!
February 10, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The muted market reaction to Trump's tariff and Treasury threats suggests that investors discount whatever he says as the ravings of a confused, weak old man. And this is working to his advantage!
Reposted
Bewildered market participant here. This checks out.
The muted market reaction to Trump's tariff and Treasury threats suggests that investors discount whatever he says as the ravings of a confused, weak old man. And this is working to his advantage!
February 10, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Bewildered market participant here. This checks out.
Reposted
Why they really shuttered CFPB paulkrugman.substack.com/p/springtime...
Springtime for Scammers
Financial predation now has friends in high places
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 11, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Why they really shuttered CFPB paulkrugman.substack.com/p/springtime...
Reposted
On those new Trump tariffs: I don't think people realize how narrow they are. They're ugly and stupid, but also arguably an attempt to save face after he lost his nerve on broad tariffs
February 11, 2025 at 11:51 AM
On those new Trump tariffs: I don't think people realize how narrow they are. They're ugly and stupid, but also arguably an attempt to save face after he lost his nerve on broad tariffs
Reposted
Agreed. But the main reasons this hot report has me worried are political: it increases the likelihood that Trump will (a) politicize monetary policy, bc the Fed isn't delivering the rate cuts he wants (b) start corrupting the BLS. And after the past 3 weeks, are these implausible?
I'll point out that even threatened tariffs can cause price increases as firms accelerate orders/demand in the face of constant supply.
And the year starts with an inflationary bang. May be partly exacerbated by seasonal issues--but those same issues also artificially muted earlier months.
Core CPI annual rates:
1 month: 5.2%
3 months: 3.6%
6 months: 3.4%
12 months: 3.3%
Core CPI annual rates:
1 month: 5.2%
3 months: 3.6%
6 months: 3.4%
12 months: 3.3%
February 12, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Agreed. But the main reasons this hot report has me worried are political: it increases the likelihood that Trump will (a) politicize monetary policy, bc the Fed isn't delivering the rate cuts he wants (b) start corrupting the BLS. And after the past 3 weeks, are these implausible?
Reposted
Today the CDC, tomorrow the BLS? paulkrugman.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
Lies, Damned Lies and Trumpflation
Big worries — and some investment advice
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 14, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Today the CDC, tomorrow the BLS? paulkrugman.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
Reposted
Arithmetic is a form of radical left-wing Marxism that hates America www.reuters.com/markets/us-l...
February 14, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Arithmetic is a form of radical left-wing Marxism that hates America www.reuters.com/markets/us-l...
Reposted
Dear Donald Trump: We already have tariff reciprocity. And no, value-added taxes aren't protectionist paulkrugman.substack.com/p/more-than-...
More Than You Wanted to Know About Tariffs
Trump has it all wrong. Surprise!
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 16, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Dear Donald Trump: We already have tariff reciprocity. And no, value-added taxes aren't protectionist paulkrugman.substack.com/p/more-than-...
Reposted
Government does important work — but not if DOGE can prevent it paulkrugman.substack.com/p/our-govern...
Our Government Is Experiencing a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly
Musk is moving fast and breaking important things
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 17, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Government does important work — but not if DOGE can prevent it paulkrugman.substack.com/p/our-govern...
Reposted
As expected paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-to-n...
Trump To New York: Drop Dead
Why he wants to kill a hugely successful policy
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 19, 2025 at 8:28 PM
As expected paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-to-n...
Reposted
Trump inherited a Goldilocks economy. But he may destroy it faster than even pessimists imagined paulkrugman.substack.com/p/surprise-c...
Chaos Is Bad for Business
Ignorance, megalomania and the economic future
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 28, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Trump inherited a Goldilocks economy. But he may destroy it faster than even pessimists imagined paulkrugman.substack.com/p/surprise-c...
Reposted
Consumers already seem worried about policy madness, and they ain't seen nothing yet
February 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Consumers already seem worried about policy madness, and they ain't seen nothing yet
Reposted
So Musk’s people, who misread $8 million as $8 billion, who counted the same contracts multiple times and counted as savings programs that ended last year, claim that their AI is finding lots of Social Security fraud.
Why should anyone worry?
Why should anyone worry?
March 2, 2025 at 7:09 PM
So Musk’s people, who misread $8 million as $8 billion, who counted the same contracts multiple times and counted as savings programs that ended last year, claim that their AI is finding lots of Social Security fraud.
Why should anyone worry?
Why should anyone worry?
Reposted
And that 30% is just Jacob Rees-Mogg and his children.
February 1, 2025 at 11:08 AM
And that 30% is just Jacob Rees-Mogg and his children.
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i think an important thing for people outside the US to understand is that elon musk seized control of the government today and most americans don’t even realize it happened.
February 1, 2025 at 5:43 AM
i think an important thing for people outside the US to understand is that elon musk seized control of the government today and most americans don’t even realize it happened.
Reposted
THERE’S GROWING ALARM ABOUT TRUMP’S LAWLESSNESS
Laurence Tribe, one of the nation’s leading constitutional scholars, said: “Without any doubt Donald TRUMP IS THE MOST LAWLESS president we have ever seen in the history of the United States.”
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Laurence Tribe, one of the nation’s leading constitutional scholars, said: “Without any doubt Donald TRUMP IS THE MOST LAWLESS president we have ever seen in the history of the United States.”
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump’s disregard for US constitution ‘a blitzkrieg on the law’, legal experts say
Scholars warn of president’s lawlessness in actions such as federal funding freeze and birthright citizenship order
www.theguardian.com
February 1, 2025 at 2:51 PM
THERE’S GROWING ALARM ABOUT TRUMP’S LAWLESSNESS
Laurence Tribe, one of the nation’s leading constitutional scholars, said: “Without any doubt Donald TRUMP IS THE MOST LAWLESS president we have ever seen in the history of the United States.”
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Laurence Tribe, one of the nation’s leading constitutional scholars, said: “Without any doubt Donald TRUMP IS THE MOST LAWLESS president we have ever seen in the history of the United States.”
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted
Susan Collins is now concerned. 🙄🇨🇦
February 1, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Susan Collins is now concerned. 🙄🇨🇦
Reposted
Look at when UK business investment stopped rising.
Brexit is wrecking Britain. No wonder Putin wanted it to happen.
Brexit is wrecking Britain. No wonder Putin wanted it to happen.
February 1, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Look at when UK business investment stopped rising.
Brexit is wrecking Britain. No wonder Putin wanted it to happen.
Brexit is wrecking Britain. No wonder Putin wanted it to happen.