Arya Deniz
@aryadeniz.bsky.social
AD Fund Management LP | Go Duke! | http://adfundmgmt.com | weekly thoughts: aryadeniz.substack.com | investing tools: http://adfundmgmt.streamlit.app
$XLU (utilities ETF) should be in the bottom left part of the quadrant, this is a factor breaking development. Utilities, thanks to AI become a momentum sector as opposed to its historical place under 'defensives' umbrella
October 8, 2025 at 1:08 AM
$XLU (utilities ETF) should be in the bottom left part of the quadrant, this is a factor breaking development. Utilities, thanks to AI become a momentum sector as opposed to its historical place under 'defensives' umbrella
Another W for the investors who are positioned for strength in the long end of the US Treasuries. Deflationary forces are real. 10-Year should be below 4.00% before end of summer - $TLT >$90 🙏🏻
June 9, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Another W for the investors who are positioned for strength in the long end of the US Treasuries. Deflationary forces are real. 10-Year should be below 4.00% before end of summer - $TLT >$90 🙏🏻
May 31, 2025 at 3:12 PM
New home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped -4.6% year-over-year in April. Existing home prices fell -6.8%, after a -7.3% drop in March.
Chinese home prices have now declined for nearly 4 years straight.... China’s real estate sector is in a worse recession than 2008.
Chinese home prices have now declined for nearly 4 years straight.... China’s real estate sector is in a worse recession than 2008.
May 21, 2025 at 5:02 PM
New home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped -4.6% year-over-year in April. Existing home prices fell -6.8%, after a -7.3% drop in March.
Chinese home prices have now declined for nearly 4 years straight.... China’s real estate sector is in a worse recession than 2008.
Chinese home prices have now declined for nearly 4 years straight.... China’s real estate sector is in a worse recession than 2008.
$SPX - 1980 parallel is interesting
May 16, 2025 at 6:48 PM
$SPX - 1980 parallel is interesting
You can explore Monthly Market Seasonality at adfundmgmt.streamlit.app — I built it to track monthly median returns and hit rates for any stock or index.
One interesting revelation - since 2020 $SPX was positive in both May and July every single time.
One interesting revelation - since 2020 $SPX was positive in both May and July every single time.
May 11, 2025 at 9:54 PM
You can explore Monthly Market Seasonality at adfundmgmt.streamlit.app — I built it to track monthly median returns and hit rates for any stock or index.
One interesting revelation - since 2020 $SPX was positive in both May and July every single time.
One interesting revelation - since 2020 $SPX was positive in both May and July every single time.
Morgan Stanley on $AXON
Despite concerns over Axon's Flock Safety partnership, MS maintains its Overweight (OW) rating, forecasting 25-30% durable topline growth.
(1/n)
Despite concerns over Axon's Flock Safety partnership, MS maintains its Overweight (OW) rating, forecasting 25-30% durable topline growth.
(1/n)
February 20, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Morgan Stanley on $AXON
Despite concerns over Axon's Flock Safety partnership, MS maintains its Overweight (OW) rating, forecasting 25-30% durable topline growth.
(1/n)
Despite concerns over Axon's Flock Safety partnership, MS maintains its Overweight (OW) rating, forecasting 25-30% durable topline growth.
(1/n)
Single most important chat - New Tenant Rents (a leading indicator for shelter inflation) declined on a YoY basis for the first time since 2Q10
January 23, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Single most important chat - New Tenant Rents (a leading indicator for shelter inflation) declined on a YoY basis for the first time since 2Q10
Quantum Computing Stocks: Hype Machine Unraveled
substack.com/@aryadeniz/n...
Quantum computing’s trajectory is a long game, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pointing out that “useful” quantum machines are still 15 to 30 years away.
$QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT
substack.com/@aryadeniz/n...
Quantum computing’s trajectory is a long game, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pointing out that “useful” quantum machines are still 15 to 30 years away.
$QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT
January 8, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Quantum Computing Stocks: Hype Machine Unraveled
substack.com/@aryadeniz/n...
Quantum computing’s trajectory is a long game, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pointing out that “useful” quantum machines are still 15 to 30 years away.
$QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT
substack.com/@aryadeniz/n...
Quantum computing’s trajectory is a long game, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pointing out that “useful” quantum machines are still 15 to 30 years away.
$QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT
For some, success comes easily, but for most, it takes persistence, luck and vision- as evidenced by the anecdote about Jobs trying to raise funds for Apple - $AAPL
December 27, 2024 at 3:16 AM
For some, success comes easily, but for most, it takes persistence, luck and vision- as evidenced by the anecdote about Jobs trying to raise funds for Apple - $AAPL
Last time this happened was in July 2024 - market ripped 10%+ since then. Semis are too weak, hope last 10 trading days they recover a bit
December 14, 2024 at 12:23 AM
Last time this happened was in July 2024 - market ripped 10%+ since then. Semis are too weak, hope last 10 trading days they recover a bit
$SMCI story is not over… Investors are going to run it back -
December 7, 2024 at 2:45 PM
$SMCI story is not over… Investors are going to run it back -
$PLTR - overfit, still funny
December 6, 2024 at 5:18 PM
$PLTR - overfit, still funny
AD Fund Management | 2025 Market Predictions | +40.68% YTD
Shortly after I published the November 2024 letter, the technology sector started to move. I will not get into position details, but as of 12/04/24 post market close ADFM is up 40.68% year-to-date.
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/ad-fund-ma...
Shortly after I published the November 2024 letter, the technology sector started to move. I will not get into position details, but as of 12/04/24 post market close ADFM is up 40.68% year-to-date.
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/ad-fund-ma...
December 4, 2024 at 10:54 PM
AD Fund Management | 2025 Market Predictions | +40.68% YTD
Shortly after I published the November 2024 letter, the technology sector started to move. I will not get into position details, but as of 12/04/24 post market close ADFM is up 40.68% year-to-date.
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/ad-fund-ma...
Shortly after I published the November 2024 letter, the technology sector started to move. I will not get into position details, but as of 12/04/24 post market close ADFM is up 40.68% year-to-date.
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/ad-fund-ma...
McDonald’s P/E ratio remains above the sector average but shows a narrowing gap, indicating potential for further multiple contraction, especially if growth falters.
December 4, 2024 at 6:24 PM
McDonald’s P/E ratio remains above the sector average but shows a narrowing gap, indicating potential for further multiple contraction, especially if growth falters.
EPS growth is slowing, with projected marginal improvements in 2025, reflecting potential pressures on profitability.
December 4, 2024 at 6:24 PM
EPS growth is slowing, with projected marginal improvements in 2025, reflecting potential pressures on profitability.
A sharp decline is evident in 2024 and 2025 compared to robust growth in 2021 and 2022. This highlights the challenges McDonald’s faces in sustaining top-line momentum.
December 4, 2024 at 6:24 PM
A sharp decline is evident in 2024 and 2025 compared to robust growth in 2021 and 2022. This highlights the challenges McDonald’s faces in sustaining top-line momentum.
Revenue has shown modest growth post-pandemic but appears to plateau in 2025, signaling limited upside potential.
December 4, 2024 at 6:24 PM
Revenue has shown modest growth post-pandemic but appears to plateau in 2025, signaling limited upside potential.
