Arya Deniz
@aryadeniz.bsky.social
AD Fund Management LP | Go Duke! | http://adfundmgmt.com | weekly thoughts: aryadeniz.substack.com | investing tools: http://adfundmgmt.streamlit.app
Epic Bill Ackman interview - hard to not love the man & be inspired by his actions over decades.
He definitely inspired me big time, and continues to be a good role model
t.co/6eNntMcYX2
He definitely inspired me big time, and continues to be a good role model
t.co/6eNntMcYX2
https://www.wsj.com/style/bill-ackman-interview-twitter-d6be86ca?mod=hp_featst_pos3
t.co
October 8, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Epic Bill Ackman interview - hard to not love the man & be inspired by his actions over decades.
He definitely inspired me big time, and continues to be a good role model
t.co/6eNntMcYX2
He definitely inspired me big time, and continues to be a good role model
t.co/6eNntMcYX2
The $AMD x OpenAI partnership gives $NVDA and OpenAI a direct line of sight to Big Blue’s quantum stack
$IBM is the only non-meme quantum computing player actually in play at the moment
$IBM is the only non-meme quantum computing player actually in play at the moment
October 8, 2025 at 1:08 AM
The $AMD x OpenAI partnership gives $NVDA and OpenAI a direct line of sight to Big Blue’s quantum stack
$IBM is the only non-meme quantum computing player actually in play at the moment
$IBM is the only non-meme quantum computing player actually in play at the moment
$XLU (utilities ETF) should be in the bottom left part of the quadrant, this is a factor breaking development. Utilities, thanks to AI become a momentum sector as opposed to its historical place under 'defensives' umbrella
October 8, 2025 at 1:08 AM
$XLU (utilities ETF) should be in the bottom left part of the quadrant, this is a factor breaking development. Utilities, thanks to AI become a momentum sector as opposed to its historical place under 'defensives' umbrella
Another W for the investors who are positioned for strength in the long end of the US Treasuries. Deflationary forces are real. 10-Year should be below 4.00% before end of summer - $TLT >$90 🙏🏻
June 9, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Another W for the investors who are positioned for strength in the long end of the US Treasuries. Deflationary forces are real. 10-Year should be below 4.00% before end of summer - $TLT >$90 🙏🏻
The best risk reward I see in the world are in long duration US treasuries, and long USD / short Euro & Renminbi… I am not buying into this end of American Exceptionalism nonsense or bond vigilantes acting out..
June 2, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The best risk reward I see in the world are in long duration US treasuries, and long USD / short Euro & Renminbi… I am not buying into this end of American Exceptionalism nonsense or bond vigilantes acting out..
May 31, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Fact that EUR/USD is up ~10% YTD is wild. Especially compared to the rate discrepancy. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re at peak USD FUD. Could be a good (maybe iconic) trade to short it
May 29, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Fact that EUR/USD is up ~10% YTD is wild. Especially compared to the rate discrepancy. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re at peak USD FUD. Could be a good (maybe iconic) trade to short it
A deflationary shock is coming thanks to AI - jobs will be lost, and S&P 500 - Nasdaq 100 companies will increase their gross margins exponentially. Bond vigilantes are extremely capable, but they don’t see this - yet.
Market is not anticipatory anymore, it’s reactionary
Market is not anticipatory anymore, it’s reactionary
May 28, 2025 at 3:05 PM
A deflationary shock is coming thanks to AI - jobs will be lost, and S&P 500 - Nasdaq 100 companies will increase their gross margins exponentially. Bond vigilantes are extremely capable, but they don’t see this - yet.
Market is not anticipatory anymore, it’s reactionary
Market is not anticipatory anymore, it’s reactionary
I spent weeks digging into $FNMA and $FMCC because every expert post felt shallow or agenda-driven. So, I wrote the memo I wish existed: a true deep dive covering every angle—capital stack, legal minefields, valuation scenarios, and political risk behind GSEs.
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
Deep Dive: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
$FNMA $FMCC
aryadeniz.substack.com
May 24, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I spent weeks digging into $FNMA and $FMCC because every expert post felt shallow or agenda-driven. So, I wrote the memo I wish existed: a true deep dive covering every angle—capital stack, legal minefields, valuation scenarios, and political risk behind GSEs.
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
I’m tracking the offshore drilling complex, and while digging through Transocean’s bond stack, I realized there’s an intersection here: the bullish case for the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve and oil expressed in a single play. $RIG
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
Deep Dive: Transocean 9.35% Senior Unsecured Notes Due 2041 - CUSIP: 893830AZ2
$RIG
aryadeniz.substack.com
May 24, 2025 at 8:49 PM
I’m tracking the offshore drilling complex, and while digging through Transocean’s bond stack, I realized there’s an intersection here: the bullish case for the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve and oil expressed in a single play. $RIG
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...
aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...