Armin Schaefer
@arminschaefer.bsky.social
Professor for Comparative Politics @uni_mainz
| Democracy | Political Participation | Inequality | Responsiveness & Populism
| Democracy | Political Participation | Inequality | Responsiveness & Populism
Multivariate analyses confirm the first impression both when we use only one wave of CSES data or all waves (which makes it necessary to use parties' populism scores based on @vdeminstitute.bsky.social's V-Party data as a proxy). The findings also can be reproduces with ESS data. 3/5
August 4, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Multivariate analyses confirm the first impression both when we use only one wave of CSES data or all waves (which makes it necessary to use parties' populism scores based on @vdeminstitute.bsky.social's V-Party data as a proxy). The findings also can be reproduces with ESS data. 3/5
This figure gives a first impression of the combined effect of populism and losing based on the fifth wave of @cses.bsky.social data. 2/5
August 4, 2025 at 5:20 PM
This figure gives a first impression of the combined effect of populism and losing based on the fifth wave of @cses.bsky.social data. 2/5
As @indubioproreto.bsky.social pointed out a few days ago, there is some interesting data from the Federal Returning Office in Germany on the age and gender divides in the general election. A few points stand out: 1) The AfD performs well across all age groups, with the exception of the oldest. 1/3
June 30, 2025 at 3:11 PM
As @indubioproreto.bsky.social pointed out a few days ago, there is some interesting data from the Federal Returning Office in Germany on the age and gender divides in the general election. A few points stand out: 1) The AfD performs well across all age groups, with the exception of the oldest. 1/3
Great to listen to the keynote by @kai-arzheimer.com. Not only a kind person but also a star of the field! @powimz.bsky.social @ipp-jgu.bsky.social
June 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Great to listen to the keynote by @kai-arzheimer.com. Not only a kind person but also a star of the field! @powimz.bsky.social @ipp-jgu.bsky.social
After missing my connecting train in Brussels, I am finally on my way to the @ecpr-ead.bsky.social conference. I will be presenting joint work with @nilssteiner.bsky.social on the interplay of education and cohorts in explaining differences in satisfaction with democracy. Looking forward!
June 8, 2025 at 8:36 PM
After missing my connecting train in Brussels, I am finally on my way to the @ecpr-ead.bsky.social conference. I will be presenting joint work with @nilssteiner.bsky.social on the interplay of education and cohorts in explaining differences in satisfaction with democracy. Looking forward!
In contrast, men from younger cohorts with medium and low levels of education are most likely to vote for the radical right. In general, these parties are much less popular among older cohorts and those with high levels of education, especially women. 3/5
March 6, 2025 at 5:39 PM
In contrast, men from younger cohorts with medium and low levels of education are most likely to vote for the radical right. In general, these parties are much less popular among older cohorts and those with high levels of education, especially women. 3/5
We show that there are huge differences in voting behaviour between cohorts, women and men, and education groups across Europe. Educated women from younger cohorts are the strongest supporters of Green parties, while the less educated are less enthusiastic. 2/5
March 6, 2025 at 5:39 PM
We show that there are huge differences in voting behaviour between cohorts, women and men, and education groups across Europe. Educated women from younger cohorts are the strongest supporters of Green parties, while the less educated are less enthusiastic. 2/5
That's what we do: We read stuff and we learn things.
February 25, 2025 at 9:33 AM
That's what we do: We read stuff and we learn things.
Hier im Überblick das Wahlverhalten nach Alter und nach Tätigkeit anhand der Daten von @infratestdimap.bsky.social. Ohne die Über-60-Jährigen sähe es für Union und SPD noch finsterer aus:
February 24, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Hier im Überblick das Wahlverhalten nach Alter und nach Tätigkeit anhand der Daten von @infratestdimap.bsky.social. Ohne die Über-60-Jährigen sähe es für Union und SPD noch finsterer aus:
One thing seems certain about Germany's general election on Sunday: for the first time, the former "Volksparteien" (catch all parties) will receive less than 50% of the vote. The CDU/CSU and the SPD are particularly weak among younger voters, so this trend is likely to continue. (1/2)
February 21, 2025 at 9:30 AM
One thing seems certain about Germany's general election on Sunday: for the first time, the former "Volksparteien" (catch all parties) will receive less than 50% of the vote. The CDU/CSU and the SPD are particularly weak among younger voters, so this trend is likely to continue. (1/2)
Die Ausgangslage vor der #bundestagswahl ist inzwischen recht klar: Wenn 2 der 3 kleineren Parteien an der 5-Prozent-Hürde scheitern, reicht es für eine schwarz-rote Regierung. Merz, Söder, Klingbeil und Pistorius werden sich auf eine Koalition verständigen können. (1/2)
February 10, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Die Ausgangslage vor der #bundestagswahl ist inzwischen recht klar: Wenn 2 der 3 kleineren Parteien an der 5-Prozent-Hürde scheitern, reicht es für eine schwarz-rote Regierung. Merz, Söder, Klingbeil und Pistorius werden sich auf eine Koalition verständigen können. (1/2)
Sometimes you gotta teach the classics. AI-generated images are a neat way of getting the message across. In this case, the book is (you guessed it) "Bowling Alone".
November 29, 2024 at 8:58 AM
Sometimes you gotta teach the classics. AI-generated images are a neat way of getting the message across. In this case, the book is (you guessed it) "Bowling Alone".
Here are the rank correlations for combinations of years. The ranks change over time, but it is not the case that poor areas have become high turnout areas. The underlying pattern is one of increasing social inequality between neighbourhoods.
November 26, 2024 at 6:29 PM
Here are the rank correlations for combinations of years. The ranks change over time, but it is not the case that poor areas have become high turnout areas. The underlying pattern is one of increasing social inequality between neighbourhoods.
Another look at the "law of dispersion": In the German city of Bremen, the turnout rates of different neighbourhoods in Bundestag elections have diverged quite dramatically over the past four decades.
November 26, 2024 at 4:52 PM
Another look at the "law of dispersion": In the German city of Bremen, the turnout rates of different neighbourhoods in Bundestag elections have diverged quite dramatically over the past four decades.
"Contesting the Rules of the Game?" Looking forward to this great workshop co-organized with @clandwehr.bsky.social! A great group of scholars at a beautiful location.
November 19, 2024 at 8:02 AM
"Contesting the Rules of the Game?" Looking forward to this great workshop co-organized with @clandwehr.bsky.social! A great group of scholars at a beautiful location.
In class today, I talked about elitist thinking about democracy (can you guess the book?), which seemed almost like a comment on the US election - though I still reject that understanding of democracy.
November 7, 2024 at 10:56 AM
In class today, I talked about elitist thinking about democracy (can you guess the book?), which seemed almost like a comment on the US election - though I still reject that understanding of democracy.
On my way to Lüneburg to present a joint paper with Jonas Wenker on "Losers' Dissent." Voters with more populist attitudes who lose elections are significantly less satisfied with the way democracy works than non-populist losers.
May 7, 2024 at 11:46 AM
On my way to Lüneburg to present a joint paper with Jonas Wenker on "Losers' Dissent." Voters with more populist attitudes who lose elections are significantly less satisfied with the way democracy works than non-populist losers.
It was wonderful to have Noam Lupu as a speaker at @powimz.bsky.social in Mainz. He presented his work with Nick Carnes on "keeping workers off the ballot." I very much look forward to reading the book they are working on.
May 6, 2024 at 4:44 PM
It was wonderful to have Noam Lupu as a speaker at @powimz.bsky.social in Mainz. He presented his work with Nick Carnes on "keeping workers off the ballot." I very much look forward to reading the book they are working on.
Now available as a paperback 😃
February 28, 2024 at 11:39 AM
Now available as a paperback 😃
Very much looking forward to the GROUPTA workshop at Konstanz with a great group of people: @theresmatthiess.bsky.social @mabreyer.bsky.social @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social @emppolitikwiss.bsky.social
February 22, 2024 at 8:03 AM
Very much looking forward to the GROUPTA workshop at Konstanz with a great group of people: @theresmatthiess.bsky.social @mabreyer.bsky.social @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social @emppolitikwiss.bsky.social
Last Thursday we had the pleasure of hosting @lhaffert.bsky.social in Mainz. Lukas gave a great talk about trade-offs in the 🇩🇪 electoral system. With increasing fragmentation, you can't have proportionality and district representation at the same time without enlarging parliament.
January 15, 2024 at 7:49 AM
Last Thursday we had the pleasure of hosting @lhaffert.bsky.social in Mainz. Lukas gave a great talk about trade-offs in the 🇩🇪 electoral system. With increasing fragmentation, you can't have proportionality and district representation at the same time without enlarging parliament.
I am looking forward to presenting my joint work with Jonas Wenker on 'Losers' Dissent' today. Let's see what the sociologists say.
December 18, 2023 at 11:21 AM
I am looking forward to presenting my joint work with Jonas Wenker on 'Losers' Dissent' today. Let's see what the sociologists say.
Three great talks in the last 8 days. Eva Krick, Paula Jöst and Theresa Bernemann really kicked it!
December 15, 2023 at 11:59 AM
Three great talks in the last 8 days. Eva Krick, Paula Jöst and Theresa Bernemann really kicked it!
I re-read Massey's article on the effects of segregation and put his data into figures. They show that for a given number of poor blacks and whites, the poverty rate in some neighbourhoods rises sharply with racial and class segregation - with severe negative consequences for those who live there.
December 12, 2023 at 5:43 AM
I re-read Massey's article on the effects of segregation and put his data into figures. They show that for a given number of poor blacks and whites, the poverty rate in some neighbourhoods rises sharply with racial and class segregation - with severe negative consequences for those who live there.