Andrés Peña M.
apdatasc.bsky.social
Andrés Peña M.
@apdatasc.bsky.social
Ph.D. (c) || Mathematical demography, Populations dynamics and Social statistics || Assistant professor at UNAM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
📢 Vienna Institute of Demography @demographyvienna.bsky.social is seeking a Postdoc Researcher in Population Data and Projections RG 📈 📊

I can't recommend enough working at VID, especially with Anne!

💯 friendly, supportive environment with world-class researchers.🤓
oeawnr.onlyfy.jobs/job/km5kybrq
Postdoc (m/f/x) – Population Data and Projections
OeAW - Discovering the futureAs a central non-university institution for science and research, the Austrian Academy of Sciences - OeAW has the task of "promoting science in every respect". F...
oeawnr.onlyfy.jobs
October 31, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
It's Friday night, Halloween! Who's with me for a thread about the economics of pronatalism?!

Some people say we need more babies because we don't have enough workers. But more births means less women workers, by ~15-40%. You trade workers today for workers tomorrow. This is from CPS data:
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November 1, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
3 full-time positions on Probabilistic Migration Modeling at University of @helsinki.fi in collaboration with @mpidr.bsky.social and Mikko Myrskylä.

DM me if you want to know more, as I'm part of the project. Definitely DM me if you heard of conformal prediction

www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/post...
Postdoctoral Researchers in Demography and Population Projections
The Population Research Institute (PRI) at Väestöliitto – Family Federation of Finland and the University of Helsinki invite applications for three positions as Postdoctoral research fellow to study…
www.vaestoliitto.fi
October 27, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
O estudo mostra que estudantes que vivem em famílias biparentais têm desempenho significativamente melhor em Matemática e Língua Portuguesa.

Leia o press release da Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População!
humanas.blog.scielo.org/blog/2025/10...
Como a composição do lar influencia a aprendizagem das crianças | SciELO em Perspectiva: Humanas
O estudo mostra que estudantes que vivem em famílias biparentais têm desempenho significativamente melhor em Matemática e Língua Portuguesa, revelando como a composição familiar pode ampliar ou…
humanas.blog.scielo.org
October 29, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
! New Paper Out!

In this paper - with Ernesto Amaral, Samantha Haussman and Guilherme Quaresma - we investigate, for Brazil, whether area level composition of workers by age, educational and formal-informal labor relations impact the wage levels of workers.

www.cepal.org/en/publicati...
Individual earnings differentials by education level in Brazil: the greater inequality of the informal sector
www.cepal.org
October 30, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
This is so important. And especially in non experimental studies where bias - not variance - is the first order concern.
The larger the dataset, the larger the false sense of confidence - if bias is baked in, size just makes a flawed measurement more convincing.

Xiao-Li Meng has called it the big data paradox: 'The bigger the data, the surer we fool ourselves.'

In other words, scale isn’t a substitute for scrutiny.
Statistical paradises and paradoxes in big data (I): Law of large populations, big data paradox, and the 2016 US presidential election
Statisticians are increasingly posed with thought-provoking and even paradoxical questions, challenging our qualifications for entering the statistical paradises created by Big Data. By developing measures for data quality, this article suggests a framework to address such a question: “Which one should I trust more: a 1% survey with 60% response rate or a self-reported administrative dataset covering 80% of the population?” A 5-element Euler-formula-like identity shows that for any dataset of size $n$, probabilistic or not, the difference between the sample average $\overline{X}_{n}$ and the population average $\overline{X}_{N}$ is the product of three terms: (1) a data quality measure, $\rho_{{R,X}}$, the correlation between $X_{j}$ and the response/recording indicator $R_{j}$; (2) a data quantity measure, $\sqrt{(N-n)/n}$, where $N$ is the population size; and (3) a problem difficulty measure, $\sigma_{X}$, the standard deviation of $X$. This decomposition provides multiple insights: (I) Probabilistic sampling ensures high data quality by controlling $\rho_{{R,X}}$ at the level of $N^{-1/2}$; (II) When we lose this control, the impact of $N$ is no longer canceled by $\rho_{{R,X}}$, leading to a Law of Large Populations (LLP), that is, our estimation error, relative to the benchmarking rate $1/\sqrt{n}$, increases with $\sqrt{N}$; and (III) the “bigness” of such Big Data (for population inferences) should be measured by the relative size $f=n/N$, not the absolute size $n$; (IV) When combining data sources for population inferences, those relatively tiny but higher quality ones should be given far more weights than suggested by their sizes. Estimates obtained from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the 2016 US presidential election suggest a $\rho_{{R,X}}\approx-0.005$ for self-reporting to vote for Donald Trump. Because of LLP, this seemingly minuscule data defect correlation implies that the simple sample proportion of the self-reported voting preference for Trump from $1\%$ of the US eligible voters, that is, $n\approx2\mbox{,}300\mbox{,}000$, has the same mean squared error as the corresponding sample proportion from a genuine simple random sample of size $n\approx400$, a $99.98\%$ reduction of sample size (and hence our confidence). The CCES data demonstrate LLP vividly: on average, the larger the state’s voter populations, the further away the actual Trump vote shares from the usual $95\%$ confidence intervals based on the sample proportions. This should remind us that, without taking data quality into account, population inferences with Big Data are subject to a Big Data Paradox: the more the data, the surer we fool ourselves.
projecteuclid.org
April 25, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Reposted by Andrés Peña M.
La Red Latinoamericana de Estudios de Familia invitan al Seminario virtual Encuestas longitudinales para el estudio de trayectorias familiares, conyugales y reproductivas en América Latina.
Jueves, 15 de mayo
1pm(ARG/URY), 12pm(CHL), 10am(MEX)
✏️ Registro: forms.gle/C7ujv8eiDXRD...
#Demography
April 25, 2025 at 3:37 PM