@prune602.bsky.social you are the best! Great work!

We need to have a closer look not just on the Russian budget, but corporate finance as well. Maybe the collapse will be bottom-up, not top-down as most experts believe

We can only imagine what happens to Russian banks when there will be 100 of companies of Segezha size unable to pay their debt

Financial troubles coming from major companies like Rosgeo and Segezha can pose a significant threat to the Russian banks capital. In case of Segezha they will have to “exchange” their capital for the Segezha shares (which won’t be possible to sell)

Both companies suffered from sanctions: Rosgeo was cut off from profitable international projects and Segezha lost E.U. as the most profitable export destination (they are based in Karelia, next to Finland)

And now Segezha: a major wood processing company with 20k employees. Owned by an oligarch Mr. Evtushenkov

Let’s start with Rosgeo. They are responsible for all state-financed geological projects. And they employ 13k people (data for 2020)

To add to your post. Current government plans imply only 50% of Russian made aircraft in the fleets of Russian airlines by 2030. Significant reduction which shows that even state officials don’t believe in the Russian-made jets

Only stocks of the public companies. The welfare fund is used to finance companies like Dom.RF or Russian Railways. Their shares have zero liquidity, it is impossible to sell them

The Welfare fund bought some stocks of State Owned Companies, so it exchange liquid assets for non-liquid

Exactly. Sanctions must be simple: everything goes out of Russia, nothing goes in

It already has - steel output in Russia down 15% yoy

At the same time EU countries must be honest, they know for sure that everything exported to Kyrgyzstan is intended for Russia

In EU exports to Russia we also need to consider EU export anomalies (like Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, etc.). So in reality it is not that low

Looking forward to seeing your O&G content as well!