Andy Harless
@andyharless.bsky.social
datums scientist; economist; rhapsode; urban hiker; XCH, StellaCoin, pre08 NGDP trajectory maxi; pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas
Pinned
Andy Harless
@andyharless.bsky.social
· Oct 20
I admit my bio contains inaccurate information: I’m actually not a pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas, but…I should have been
Gonna ask this again this morning. I don’t know anything about the substantive details in places like Texas, but gerrymanders are notoriously fragile in that they involve diluting the votes from your strongest districts.
What are the chances that the Republican gerrymanders could backfire, given a (potentially large) shift in generic preference away from the Republicans?
November 5, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Gonna ask this again this morning. I don’t know anything about the substantive details in places like Texas, but gerrymanders are notoriously fragile in that they involve diluting the votes from your strongest districts.
What are the chances that the Republican gerrymanders could backfire, given a (potentially large) shift in generic preference away from the Republicans?
November 1, 2025 at 8:32 PM
What are the chances that the Republican gerrymanders could backfire, given a (potentially large) shift in generic preference away from the Republicans?
Do coalitions of the moderate left and the far right (that exclude the center-right) happen outside the US? Because that's basically what the Democratic Party was during most of the 20th century.
October 25, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Do coalitions of the moderate left and the far right (that exclude the center-right) happen outside the US? Because that's basically what the Democratic Party was during most of the 20th century.
In my head I still hear John Lennon singing “Here…comes..the Shit…King”
October 22, 2025 at 6:08 PM
In my head I still hear John Lennon singing “Here…comes..the Shit…King”
Liver damage is a potential side effect of blood thinners. The mechanism is that people have to avoid NSAIDs, so they end up taking too much acetaminophen. Doctors should consider this potential adverse effect when prescribing blood thinners.
October 9, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Liver damage is a potential side effect of blood thinners. The mechanism is that people have to avoid NSAIDs, so they end up taking too much acetaminophen. Doctors should consider this potential adverse effect when prescribing blood thinners.
For me the subjective probability that Tylenol increases the risk of ASD is slightly higher than the probability that JD actually fucked a couch; but the harm done by acting in accordance with the latter belief is minimal. Always be integrating your loss function over your posterior #ABIYLFOYP
October 9, 2025 at 1:32 PM
For me the subjective probability that Tylenol increases the risk of ASD is slightly higher than the probability that JD actually fucked a couch; but the harm done by acting in accordance with the latter belief is minimal. Always be integrating your loss function over your posterior #ABIYLFOYP
We could end up with too few people to do the work (e.g., to care for old people) or too many people to do the work (e.g., AI takes all the jobs). I don’t expect either, but I’m more concerned about the adjustments needed for a stagnant population than those needed for advancing technology.
October 4, 2025 at 7:40 PM
We could end up with too few people to do the work (e.g., to care for old people) or too many people to do the work (e.g., AI takes all the jobs). I don’t expect either, but I’m more concerned about the adjustments needed for a stagnant population than those needed for advancing technology.
AFAICT, Starbucks was a bank pretending to be a coffee company, but closing a lot of stores destroys the value of its banking services, so it's just going to be a failed coffee company now.
October 3, 2025 at 6:03 PM
AFAICT, Starbucks was a bank pretending to be a coffee company, but closing a lot of stores destroys the value of its banking services, so it's just going to be a failed coffee company now.
Wouldn’t it be reasonable to make a counter offer, “To keep the government open, we’ll give you some of what you want, but not the part where you fund healthcare for illegal aliens and change everyone’s gender“?
September 30, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Wouldn’t it be reasonable to make a counter offer, “To keep the government open, we’ll give you some of what you want, but not the part where you fund healthcare for illegal aliens and change everyone’s gender“?
Thinking abstractly about AI replacing humans, I think the big economic issue is whether the resources AI uses are underpriced. If labor is available, they'll ultimately find something for labor to do, unless it's too relatively expensive because some costs of non-human resources are unpriced.
September 30, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Thinking abstractly about AI replacing humans, I think the big economic issue is whether the resources AI uses are underpriced. If labor is available, they'll ultimately find something for labor to do, unless it's too relatively expensive because some costs of non-human resources are unpriced.
AFAICT it would be in the political interest of the Republicans to do a TACO on the shutdown, because the Democrats will then be blamed for everything that goes wrong. Best case politically for Democrats is that Republicans change Senate rules, pass the CR, and then get blamed for premium hikes &c.
September 30, 2025 at 4:25 PM
AFAICT it would be in the political interest of the Republicans to do a TACO on the shutdown, because the Democrats will then be blamed for everything that goes wrong. Best case politically for Democrats is that Republicans change Senate rules, pass the CR, and then get blamed for premium hikes &c.
People tell me AI is crowding out residential investment, but they also tell me AI is taking everyone’s job. I don’t think both can be true, and I don’t think either one is true. Rather, AI is a distraction, and bad trade and immigration policies are just making things harder for everyone.
September 25, 2025 at 10:32 PM
People tell me AI is crowding out residential investment, but they also tell me AI is taking everyone’s job. I don’t think both can be true, and I don’t think either one is true. Rather, AI is a distraction, and bad trade and immigration policies are just making things harder for everyone.
So…neurotypicalism is caused by a deficiency of acetaminophen during pregnancy. Am I getting this right?
September 22, 2025 at 2:48 PM
So…neurotypicalism is caused by a deficiency of acetaminophen during pregnancy. Am I getting this right?
I expect health insurers waste a lot of money requiring very expensive tests to qualify for less expensive treatments.
September 19, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I expect health insurers waste a lot of money requiring very expensive tests to qualify for less expensive treatments.
Right now, my money would be on June 2025 as the US business cycle peak, but I'd still keep an option on January 2025, just for poetic reasons. Trump inherited a softening economy and perhaps managed to push it over the edge within a couple of weeks.
September 11, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Right now, my money would be on June 2025 as the US business cycle peak, but I'd still keep an option on January 2025, just for poetic reasons. Trump inherited a softening economy and perhaps managed to push it over the edge within a couple of weeks.
Why is the yield curve still close to normal? Shouldn’t 2s10s be record steep by now?
They're now saying it out loud: The Administration's goal is to undo the political independence that Congress granted the Fed, so that the President can directly set rates.
Vance on undermining the Federal Reserve: "I don't think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people...POTUS is much better able to make these determinations."
August 29, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Why is the yield curve still close to normal? Shouldn’t 2s10s be record steep by now?
Not sure I understand what the word “populist” means, but I gather it’s similar to the meaning of the word “dumbass”
A careful study of every populist episode since 1900 finds catastrophic consequences, which play out slowly.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
August 27, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Not sure I understand what the word “populist” means, but I gather it’s similar to the meaning of the word “dumbass”
AFAICT Trump is just making it harder for the Fed to cut rates. The Phillips curve has an expectations term, and bond yields have a risk premium, and every time Trump tries to tamper with the Fed, those terms get larger.
August 26, 2025 at 1:42 AM
AFAICT Trump is just making it harder for the Fed to cut rates. The Phillips curve has an expectations term, and bond yields have a risk premium, and every time Trump tries to tamper with the Fed, those terms get larger.
I know Vance is a jerk, but I keep reading (contra Vance "some kind of negotiation" remark) that WWII ended in unconditional surrender. I don't think that's true. You might want to ask Emperor Naruhito whether his grandfather retained the throne just because the Americans were so fond of him.
August 25, 2025 at 12:36 PM
I know Vance is a jerk, but I keep reading (contra Vance "some kind of negotiation" remark) that WWII ended in unconditional surrender. I don't think that's true. You might want to ask Emperor Naruhito whether his grandfather retained the throne just because the Americans were so fond of him.
The People’s Republic of China isn’t a communist system; it’s Marx-branded fascism.
August 24, 2025 at 10:00 PM
The People’s Republic of China isn’t a communist system; it’s Marx-branded fascism.
It seems the US is experiencing a demand-side recession that is being offset by a supply-side recession (due to tariffs and net negative immigration). This is broadly the same thing that happened with COVID, in which case it was manifested by first economic weakness and then inflation.
August 22, 2025 at 10:43 PM
It seems the US is experiencing a demand-side recession that is being offset by a supply-side recession (due to tariffs and net negative immigration). This is broadly the same thing that happened with COVID, in which case it was manifested by first economic weakness and then inflation.
The screwiest thing about Trump's economic world-view is that he considers both *investments in the US* and *net purchases of US products* as gifts to the US (conversely deficits as stealing from the US). I think his head would explode if anyone ever managed to explain the balance of payments to him
Trump: "They gave me $600 billion. And that’s a gift... That’s not a loan... There’s nothing to pay back. They gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want.”
European Union:
Me: “He didn’t get a penny”
White House spox: ”Pointless nitpicking”
www.cnn.com/2025/08/22/p...
European Union:
Me: “He didn’t get a penny”
White House spox: ”Pointless nitpicking”
www.cnn.com/2025/08/22/p...
August 22, 2025 at 8:26 PM
The screwiest thing about Trump's economic world-view is that he considers both *investments in the US* and *net purchases of US products* as gifts to the US (conversely deficits as stealing from the US). I think his head would explode if anyone ever managed to explain the balance of payments to him
A Goldilocks economy isn't really an option for the Fed right now. They seem to be trying to strike a balance between "try to cause a recession while pretending not to" and "be OK with persistent above-target inflation while pretending not to."
August 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
A Goldilocks economy isn't really an option for the Fed right now. They seem to be trying to strike a balance between "try to cause a recession while pretending not to" and "be OK with persistent above-target inflation while pretending not to."
The US is in a weird situation wherever favoring free markets is now a left-of-center position.
August 20, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The US is in a weird situation wherever favoring free markets is now a left-of-center position.
I had lunch at the Fed once, and I thought the food was good, but whatever.
🇺🇸TRUMP: FED'S COOK MUST RESIGN, NOW.
August 20, 2025 at 12:47 PM
I had lunch at the Fed once, and I thought the food was good, but whatever.