Andrew Lautz
andrewlautz.bsky.social
Andrew Lautz
@andrewlautz.bsky.social
Working on all things tax and econ policy for Bipartisan Policy Center.
President Trump and Speaker Johnson have both called out the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% economic growth assumption for the next decade.

Setting aside the notion CBO does projections based on the party in power (they don't), growth has been on a clear downward trend for decades.
June 1, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Congress' tax scorekeeper, JCT, is out with new scores today on the cost of extending the 2017 GOP tax cuts.

JCT finds that extension costs $4.1 trillion over 10 years, and $700 billion more tacked on due to the extra interest payments we'll have to make on our debt.

punchbowl.news/wyden_merkle...
April 4, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Happy baseline week. Remember: no budgetary rule can make $4.5 trillion in tax cuts cost $0!

Current policy just obscures the cost from the public and breaks decades of precedent.
March 31, 2025 at 5:00 PM
📈 Congressional Budget Office finds extending Trump tax cuts w/o pay-fors would increase debt to GDP by almost 50 percentage points by 2054.

The baseline is a political choice, but it doesn't change that extending the tax cuts w/o paying for them adds trillions to debt.

www.cbo.gov/publication/...
March 21, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Me convincing myself my 401(k) balance isn't down if I don't check it:
March 15, 2025 at 9:10 PM
The GOP's reconciliation bill is a moving target, and the menu of options changes daily.

Currently, the agenda may exceed $7 trillion over 10 years before offsets.

Lawmakers need to pay for new tax cuts/spending to avoid increasing deficits by a third.

bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/
January 28, 2025 at 1:32 PM
With skyrocketing government debt + borrowing costs, paying for new spending hikes or tax cuts is critical.

At Bipartisan Policy Center we have a new resource with options to pay for $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts.

One set of options out today. More next week.

bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/
December 5, 2024 at 2:21 PM
A crosswalk to how $45.6 billion in enforcement funding can turn into $2.5 billion in two years, with only 3% of the money actually spent.

Of the overall $79.6 billion to the IRS, a larger portion remains ($27.1 billion or 34%).
November 27, 2024 at 3:13 PM