President Trump and Speaker Johnson have both called out the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% economic growth assumption for the next decade.

Setting aside the notion CBO does projections based on the party in power (they don't), growth has been on a clear downward trend for decades.

ICYMI: Is the SALT deduction always/sometimes/never a good policy? @andrewlautz.bsky.social on the impact and trade-offs of raising the SALT deductions cap:

www.wnyc.org/story/salt-c...

Today:
- @andrewlautz.bsky.social on raising the SALT deductions cap,
- Envisioning 'good government' in NYC with @citizensunionny.bsky.social,
- @contrapoints.bsky.social on conspiracy theories,
- Listeners, what would YOU wait on line for?

Live at 10 on 93.9 FM, AM820 or @wnyc.org

More Americans may be paying individual alternative minimum tax if a change in the House-passed Republican tax-and-spending package remains in place.

But it won't get close to pre-TCJA levels, @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and @andrewlautz.bsky.social say.

buff.ly/Ak16FNg

Lawmakers from both parties want to revisit the current $10K cap on state and local #tax (SALT) deductions. Our explainer details how the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed SALT, who is most affected by the present cap, & suggests principles for fiscally responsible reform.

🔗https://bit.ly/4lhqOK9

Congress' tax scorekeeper, JCT, is out with new scores today on the cost of extending the 2017 GOP tax cuts.

JCT finds that extension costs $4.1 trillion over 10 years, and $700 billion more tacked on due to the extra interest payments we'll have to make on our debt.

punchbowl.news/wyden_merkle...

New from Rachel Snyderman and I:

What’s in the Senate GOP budget?

💸 1) up to $5.7 TRILLION in higher deficits/debt

🫣 2) an attempt to obscure a huge portion of that behind a "current policy" baseline that says tax cuts are free.

Read more:

bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...

Happy baseline week. Remember: no budgetary rule can make $4.5 trillion in tax cuts cost $0!

Current policy just obscures the cost from the public and breaks decades of precedent.

📈 Congressional Budget Office finds extending Trump tax cuts w/o pay-fors would increase debt to GDP by almost 50 percentage points by 2054.

The baseline is a political choice, but it doesn't change that extending the tax cuts w/o paying for them adds trillions to debt.

www.cbo.gov/publication/...

The baseline debate is important because it's about transparency and honesty.

What it doesn't change is that extending the 2017 tax cuts costs $4 trillion over a decade.

Some friends here do a great job of explaining this for folks who aren't enmeshed in nerdy budget battles.

Aaron Judge's contract pays $40 million this year, but the Yankees are just continuing his current contract so it actually costs $0.

Sound ridiculous?

This is the "current policy" gimmick some Republicans are mulling for tax cuts.

Great metaphors here:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Me convincing myself my 401(k) balance isn't down if I don't check it:

The GOP's reconciliation bill is a moving target, and the menu of options changes daily.

Currently, the agenda may exceed $7 trillion over 10 years before offsets.

Lawmakers need to pay for new tax cuts/spending to avoid increasing deficits by a third.

bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/

With skyrocketing government debt + borrowing costs, paying for new spending hikes or tax cuts is critical.

At Bipartisan Policy Center we have a new resource with options to pay for $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts.

One set of options out today. More next week.

bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/

A crosswalk to how $45.6 billion in enforcement funding can turn into $2.5 billion in two years, with only 3% of the money actually spent.

Of the overall $79.6 billion to the IRS, a larger portion remains ($27.1 billion or 34%).

👋 Bluesky! Want to post a bit here as the 2025 tax debate gets underway in Washington.

Created a Tax Starter Pack for other tax folks coming here -- policy wonks, reporters, etc. -- but let me know if I missed you!

go.bsky.app/9pFtGbx