2/ What limited – and imperfect – private sector data we do have in hand suggests a continual labor market slowdown, but not the bottom falling out. See the charts below.

Because of the government shutdown, there is no jobs day data. And if the shutdown persists, no CPI, no GDP, etc. So
my colleague Julius Probst and I wrote a guide for how policymakers and economists, as well as HR and recruiting leaders, can navigate this economy while "flying blind."

In 1997, Fujitsu released the first commercial flat-screen TV for consumers, a 42-inch plasma TV.

It was priced around $17,500 to $20,000.

Check out this first of a four-part series on Recruitonomics covering the impact of the Trump administration's immigration policies on the labor market. Julius Probst estimates an annual decline in the U.S. labor force between 640k to 960k.

Hotel hiring is a mixed bag. And restaurants are still playing catch-up on hiring. Read @samrkuhn.bsky.social on how summer hiring is heating up, with recruiters facing both labor shortages and softer consumer spending.

The U.S. added 139k jobs in May, which on its face isn’t bad. However, the average monthly job gains over the past year have slowed to about 144,000, which is the lowest level since late 2011 (excluding the sharp pandemic-era drop). So, the labor market is treading water.

🇨🇦 Canada's upcoming election coincides with a pivotal economic moment. @samrkuhn.bsky.social covers the state of the Canadian economy, and labor market in particular: recruitonomics.com/a-pivotal-mo...

Transportation & warehousing added ~23k jobs in March, the fifth month in a row of strong performance. Couriers and messengers—workers who deliver parcels across cities and states—alone added 15,800 new jobs in March. On the surface, this is great, but underneath it smells like a tariff effect.

Thus, this March jobs report is the last reading of the U.S. labor market before this tsunami of trade changes takes effect. Stock markets have turned sharply negative since the announcement and recession worries are mounting.

On Wednesday, President Trump issued a sweeping increase of tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day,” that will bring the average U.S. tariff rate to the highest point in more than a century. April 2, 2025, may go down as a “before and after” date in economic history.

The March jobs report was calm on the surface, but it is an unfulfilling bright spot in a new economic storm. The truth is this report won’t go down as the biggest jobs story this week.

10 years ago today FiveThirtyEight.com launched under ESPN/ABC News. Now, a lot has obviously changed. Nate Silver and many of the original founding members from that day (myself included) are no longer there. But that day– and the three years that followed – I will never forget.

Python, R, Stata, Excel

Gen Z workers have higher demand for flexible and remote work, right? Not necessarily, as Franziska Eckhardt shows in her debut post on Recruitonomics.

Bottom line: Generational stereotypes are not a sound talent attraction strategy.

recruitonomics.com/age-and-remo...

Wage growth in the U.S. slowed in Q3, another sign that falling inflation is leading to moderation of labor costs. The Federal Reserve will most likely opt to hold interest rates steady tomorrow.

Really struggling to see any sign of a recession

Fed data reveals that Americans are wealthier than ever. Net worth, adjusted for inflation, surged during the pandemic years thanks to rising asset prices and government fiscal stimulus.

recruitonomics.com/fed-data-rev...