No wage regression, the model has a slow moving portion of the ratings (~25-30%) that picks up multi-season performance instead, but if you consistently use the ££ badly then the model won't credit wages independently

Another small benefit I should mention is this naturally incorporates weaker priors for promoted teams. Fewer games in the average for the recent errors allows the model to respond quicker where we have less prior evidence -- this is what's driving the change in Sunderland rating

So how does is impact the ratings? In general, it sees the division with roughly the same shape, though it does moderate positions on Palace, Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth & Sunderland towards bookie/other model consensus

Some other smaller changes include:

- Inclusion of a constant term (representing the missing piece of penalty xG the model chooses not to use)
- This brought down the proportion of a penalty the model wants to use from ~58% (~0.46xG) to ~33% (~0.26xG)

It’s not at all clear to me how the BBC can do any kind of serious journalism if its top two bosses can be forced to quit over such an obviously confected scandal. There is no substantive error here. How can the BBC report on Trump, or Farage, or anyone else, in these circumstances?

Putting dead balls into the box is free money