Amni Rusli
@amnirusli.bsky.social
Quant, Economist. I write about the US monetary policy at eightateeight.substack.com and about trade at https://eighttradeeight.substack.com/ 🇨🇭
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Amni Rusli
@amnirusli.bsky.social
· Mar 18
EightateEight | amni rusli | Substack
Economics and Finance. Click to read EightateEight, by amni rusli, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
eightateeight.substack.com
Hello #econsky I write about monetary policy at eightateeight.substack.com and about trade at eighttradeeight.substack.com Do visit and subscribe, both are free!
Reposted by Amni Rusli
#EconSky 🧵
The positive or negative impulses to US growth from now until the next few years could arise from financial conditions, fiscal policy, tariff effects and immigration effects.
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
November 5, 2025 at 5:05 PM
#EconSky 🧵
#EconSky 🧵
The positive or negative impulses to US growth from now until the next few years could arise from financial conditions, fiscal policy, tariff effects and immigration effects.
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
November 5, 2025 at 5:05 PM
#EconSky 🧵
The positive or negative impulses to US growth from now until the next few years could arise from financial conditions, fiscal policy, tariff effects and immigration effects.
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
November 5, 2025 at 9:03 AM
The positive or negative impulses to US growth from now until the next few years could arise from financial conditions, fiscal policy, tariff effects and immigration effects.
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal
Risk and response: Commodity price response to geopolitical risk, measured as changes in standard deviation conditioned on macro variables (*Price changes are controlled for real rate and dollar changes.)
October 17, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Risk and response: Commodity price response to geopolitical risk, measured as changes in standard deviation conditioned on macro variables (*Price changes are controlled for real rate and dollar changes.)
on.ft.com/3W6emBv Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief
Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief
Takeover of Nexperia plunges Netherlands into US-China tech war
on.ft.com
October 14, 2025 at 9:44 AM
on.ft.com/3W6emBv Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief
How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution
Vast battery units are shoring up grids and extending the use of clean power
ig.ft.com
October 13, 2025 at 6:33 AM
How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
on.ft.com/4mUsSqI The Davos set in decline: can the World Economic Forum save itself?
The Davos set in decline: can the World Economic Forum save itself?
Battered by scandal, the Swiss organisation behind the annual summit faces a moment of crisis. Insiders say its future may depend on the success of next year’s meeting
on.ft.com
October 9, 2025 at 8:06 AM
on.ft.com/4mUsSqI The Davos set in decline: can the World Economic Forum save itself?
on.ft.com/4mQqLEE Confronting the limits of monetary policy
Confronting the limits of monetary policy
The ability of interest rates to guide prices and the economy is diminishing
on.ft.com
October 6, 2025 at 6:58 AM
on.ft.com/4mQqLEE Confronting the limits of monetary policy
Human beings are members of a whole, in creation of one essence and soul. If one member is afflicted with pain, other members uneasy will remain. If you have no sympathy for human pain, the name of human you cannot retain. ~Sa’adi
October 5, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Human beings are members of a whole, in creation of one essence and soul. If one member is afflicted with pain, other members uneasy will remain. If you have no sympathy for human pain, the name of human you cannot retain. ~Sa’adi
#EconSky Wealth effects are enhancing annualised consumption growth, primarily among higher-income households; though will vary under alternative asset prices (equity and home) scenarios, providing either a boost or a drag.
October 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
#EconSky Wealth effects are enhancing annualised consumption growth, primarily among higher-income households; though will vary under alternative asset prices (equity and home) scenarios, providing either a boost or a drag.
#EconSky 🧵 Tariffs are seen as a timing issue: the US avoids recession, but growth rebound comes later after full absorption. The effective tariff rate hovers around 9%, and should approach the 16% tariff rate in the baseline outlook over the coming months.(1/n)
October 2, 2025 at 3:03 PM
#EconSky 🧵 Tariffs are seen as a timing issue: the US avoids recession, but growth rebound comes later after full absorption. The effective tariff rate hovers around 9%, and should approach the 16% tariff rate in the baseline outlook over the coming months.(1/n)
on.ft.com/4gKGxze Russia’s hybrid war is ‘only the beginning’, warns Danish PM
Russia’s hybrid war is ‘only the beginning’, warns Danish PM
Mette Frederiksen says Nato needs to adjust its response to Russian provocations
on.ft.com
October 1, 2025 at 6:37 AM
on.ft.com/4gKGxze Russia’s hybrid war is ‘only the beginning’, warns Danish PM
The primary objective of adopting a restrictive monetary policy posture lies in curbing the entrenched persistence inherent in backward-looking inflation mechanisms, those adaptive expectations that risk perpetuating elevated price pressures (e.g. due to tariffs), while simultaneously
Fed's Goolsbee: I want to be sure tariff inflation won't be persistent.
September 30, 2025 at 7:48 PM
The primary objective of adopting a restrictive monetary policy posture lies in curbing the entrenched persistence inherent in backward-looking inflation mechanisms, those adaptive expectations that risk perpetuating elevated price pressures (e.g. due to tariffs), while simultaneously
🧵 The ongoing monetary easing cycle may serve as a safeguard against the potential escalation of the current economic softness in the United States into a more pronounced recession. Nevertheless, the principal apprehension remains the possibility of further deterioration in labour market conditions.
September 30, 2025 at 7:30 PM
🧵 The ongoing monetary easing cycle may serve as a safeguard against the potential escalation of the current economic softness in the United States into a more pronounced recession. Nevertheless, the principal apprehension remains the possibility of further deterioration in labour market conditions.
on.ft.com/42kGV1D Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency
Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency
Rare joint statement with US Treasury seen as ‘green light’ for further currency intervention by Swiss central bank
on.ft.com
September 30, 2025 at 6:46 AM
on.ft.com/42kGV1D Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency
on.ft.com/4pLIQpO Hedge funds and high-frequency traders are converging
Hedge funds and high-frequency traders are converging
Prop shops versus pod shops
on.ft.com
September 29, 2025 at 6:54 AM
on.ft.com/4pLIQpO Hedge funds and high-frequency traders are converging
🧵 When I pick up a new paper, I often jump straight to the equations first, it's like getting the core structure before delving into the narrative. Then I loop back to the prose for context. Mathematics isn't some opaque foe; it's a language, precise and potent, and above all,
September 28, 2025 at 5:01 PM
🧵 When I pick up a new paper, I often jump straight to the equations first, it's like getting the core structure before delving into the narrative. Then I loop back to the prose for context. Mathematics isn't some opaque foe; it's a language, precise and potent, and above all,
September 28, 2025 at 11:35 AM
🧵 When I pick up a new paper, I often jump straight to the equations first, it's like getting the core structure before delving into the narrative. Then I loop back to the prose for context. Mathematics isn't some opaque foe; it's a language, precise and potent, and above all,
Reposted by Amni Rusli
#EconSky Forward guidance is not obsolete per se, but perhaps its current form is, for now. This is uncharted territory: the economy is slowing down, and inflation may or may not prove transitory, depending on how tariffs affect the price level. High uncertainty means there is no
September 18, 2025 at 6:43 AM
#EconSky Forward guidance is not obsolete per se, but perhaps its current form is, for now. This is uncharted territory: the economy is slowing down, and inflation may or may not prove transitory, depending on how tariffs affect the price level. High uncertainty means there is no