Daniel Schuman
@americalabs.org
Progressive institutionalist with an interest in modernizing Congress and strengthening our democracy. Bluesky is my penance for working at an org that once encouraged Congress to tweet.
Like what you see? More at https://firstbranchforecast.substack.com/
Like what you see? More at https://firstbranchforecast.substack.com/
Some folks are calling for Schumer's removal as Democratic Leader. Senate Democratic caucus rules, which hasn't changed since 2017, don't appear to allow removal, don't appear to allow no confidence votes, and generally contemplate elections only at congress's start or when vacancies occur. BUT...
Rules for the Democratic Conference | Senate Democratic Leadership
Senate Democratic Leadership
www.democrats.senate.gov
November 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Some folks are calling for Schumer's removal as Democratic Leader. Senate Democratic caucus rules, which hasn't changed since 2017, don't appear to allow removal, don't appear to allow no confidence votes, and generally contemplate elections only at congress's start or when vacancies occur. BUT...
Reposted by Daniel Schuman
I chart how 60s' liberals' frustration with House minority rule in their own party led us to a different kind of minority rule now, unintentionally accelerated by Pelosi's iron grip as Speaker. Johnson's turned the strong speaker model into a WH appendage, so we need a new one
Master of the House: The Pelosi Paradox
How the Strongest Speaker Made Congress Weak
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I chart how 60s' liberals' frustration with House minority rule in their own party led us to a different kind of minority rule now, unintentionally accelerated by Pelosi's iron grip as Speaker. Johnson's turned the strong speaker model into a WH appendage, so we need a new one
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.
Sen. @kaine.senate.gov, I'm a constituent and just called your office, but of course it's closed, so let me message you instead. Do NOT support the CR-Minibus because it does not protect Congress's power of the purse. Without such provisions, the WH will continue to ignore Congress with impunity.
What's in the CR Deal for Congress?
With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Sen. @kaine.senate.gov, I'm a constituent and just called your office, but of course it's closed, so let me message you instead. Do NOT support the CR-Minibus because it does not protect Congress's power of the purse. Without such provisions, the WH will continue to ignore Congress with impunity.
What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
What's in the CR Deal for Congress?
With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:56 AM
What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
It appears the bill text for the CR (in addition to the the minibus) is now out.
www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majorit...
www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majorit...
Bill Text: Continuing Appropriations Act, 2026 | United States Senate Committee on Appropriations
United States Senate Committee on Appropriations
www.appropriations.senate.gov
November 10, 2025 at 12:04 AM
It appears the bill text for the CR (in addition to the the minibus) is now out.
www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majorit...
www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majorit...
I've been reading the 3 approps bills + JES and looking for the CR text. A very-short short term CR + full year authorization for leg branch (+MilCon + VA) is not terrible ONLY IF it includes pushing back on WH encroachment on congress's power of the purse. Otherwise, it's for naught.
November 9, 2025 at 10:13 PM
I've been reading the 3 approps bills + JES and looking for the CR text. A very-short short term CR + full year authorization for leg branch (+MilCon + VA) is not terrible ONLY IF it includes pushing back on WH encroachment on congress's power of the purse. Otherwise, it's for naught.
Nothing like a Sunday afternoon where the senate publishes a minibus a few hours before a vote and you have to scramble to see what's new/different.
November 9, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Nothing like a Sunday afternoon where the senate publishes a minibus a few hours before a vote and you have to scramble to see what's new/different.
I'm thinking about threats against elected officials, candidates, and staff this week.
Yesterday Capitol Police arrested Richard Griffin. His frequent emails to congressional offices & law enforcement resulted in USCP placing him on a watchlist. Griffin was arrested trying to enter the Senate.
Yesterday Capitol Police arrested Richard Griffin. His frequent emails to congressional offices & law enforcement resulted in USCP placing him on a watchlist. Griffin was arrested trying to enter the Senate.
November 5, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I'm thinking about threats against elected officials, candidates, and staff this week.
Yesterday Capitol Police arrested Richard Griffin. His frequent emails to congressional offices & law enforcement resulted in USCP placing him on a watchlist. Griffin was arrested trying to enter the Senate.
Yesterday Capitol Police arrested Richard Griffin. His frequent emails to congressional offices & law enforcement resulted in USCP placing him on a watchlist. Griffin was arrested trying to enter the Senate.
I've taken to listening to the @hansardsociety.bsky.social podcast "Parliament Matters" when walking around the DC area and it really is something special. Many issues facing the British parliament are similar to that of Congress, and the alternate universe perspective is useful to my own work.
Parliament Matters
Government Podcast · Updated Weekly · Join two of the UK's leading parliamentary experts, Mark D'Arcy and Ruth Fox, as they guide you through the often mysterious ways our politicians do business and ...
podcasts.apple.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:02 PM
I've taken to listening to the @hansardsociety.bsky.social podcast "Parliament Matters" when walking around the DC area and it really is something special. Many issues facing the British parliament are similar to that of Congress, and the alternate universe perspective is useful to my own work.
Reposted by Daniel Schuman
House Speaker Mike Johnson has functionally dissolved Congress, deepening the damage to what’s left of the constitutional order with each passing day. - @americalabs.org
Congress In Suspense
Speaker Johnson's First Branch Freeze
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 2:17 PM
House Speaker Mike Johnson has functionally dissolved Congress, deepening the damage to what’s left of the constitutional order with each passing day. - @americalabs.org
Reposted by Daniel Schuman
@liampert.bsky.social, @mattgrossmann.bsky.social, and I are thrilled to launch SenateData, a new repository pertaining to the US Senate. We have variables on facets like bills, and members, including original data on senator characteristics and an associated R package. github.com/IPPSR/Senate...
GitHub - IPPSR/SenateData: SenateData: A Functional Tool for the SenateData Dataset
SenateData: A Functional Tool for the SenateData Dataset - IPPSR/SenateData
github.com
October 13, 2025 at 6:19 PM
@liampert.bsky.social, @mattgrossmann.bsky.social, and I are thrilled to launch SenateData, a new repository pertaining to the US Senate. We have variables on facets like bills, and members, including original data on senator characteristics and an associated R package. github.com/IPPSR/Senate...
If lawmakers are going to confront each other in person, maybe they should do it on the floor of the House of Representatives... in debate... with the chamber open for business.
October 9, 2025 at 12:51 AM
If lawmakers are going to confront each other in person, maybe they should do it on the floor of the House of Representatives... in debate... with the chamber open for business.
If Russ Vought believes federal employees should continue to work during the shutdown and not be paid back for their work,* I can't see any reason why they'd show up for work at all.
______________________
* Federal law requires feds to receive back pay. Vought is refusing to follow the law.
______________________
* Federal law requires feds to receive back pay. Vought is refusing to follow the law.
October 7, 2025 at 3:27 PM
If Russ Vought believes federal employees should continue to work during the shutdown and not be paid back for their work,* I can't see any reason why they'd show up for work at all.
______________________
* Federal law requires feds to receive back pay. Vought is refusing to follow the law.
______________________
* Federal law requires feds to receive back pay. Vought is refusing to follow the law.
Yes, and that's why we need OLC opinion transparency -- because there should not be secret law. Here's my testimony for FY 2026.
americalabs.org/wp-content/u...
americalabs.org/wp-content/u...
americalabs.org
October 7, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Yes, and that's why we need OLC opinion transparency -- because there should not be secret law. Here's my testimony for FY 2026.
americalabs.org/wp-content/u...
americalabs.org/wp-content/u...
ICYMI, the quiet shutdown becomes loud. The rupture in the government funding process exposes the constitutional stakes.
The Quiet Shutdown Becomes Loud
Appropriations rupture exposes the constitutional stakes
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
October 6, 2025 at 2:12 PM
ICYMI, the quiet shutdown becomes loud. The rupture in the government funding process exposes the constitutional stakes.
They've got it exactly backwards. Why should Dems be willing to negotiate with Republicans on anything if the appropriations agreement can be changed at will by the administration? They key item to negotiate are provisions to ensure approps deals are followed by the admin.
October 3, 2025 at 1:26 PM
They've got it exactly backwards. Why should Dems be willing to negotiate with Republicans on anything if the appropriations agreement can be changed at will by the administration? They key item to negotiate are provisions to ensure approps deals are followed by the admin.
Um. Going after the Southern Poverty Law Center?
October 2, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Um. Going after the Southern Poverty Law Center?
The Trump administration's efforts to extort Democrats by cutting off funds to their districts tells you everything you need to know. Congress must stand up for its power to determine where federal funding goes... otherwise they'll be at the mercy of the White House's whims.
October 1, 2025 at 2:30 PM
The Trump administration's efforts to extort Democrats by cutting off funds to their districts tells you everything you need to know. Congress must stand up for its power to determine where federal funding goes... otherwise they'll be at the mercy of the White House's whims.
So many hot takes about who will win/lose the shutdown, but so little discussion about what's at stake. The stakes here are whether Congress makes the law or the president can rule by diktat. Everything else is commentary.
October 1, 2025 at 1:31 PM
So many hot takes about who will win/lose the shutdown, but so little discussion about what's at stake. The stakes here are whether Congress makes the law or the president can rule by diktat. Everything else is commentary.
The Trump war on government accountability continues. They're (illegally) defunding the council of inspectors general.
The Trump administration plans to end funding starting Wednesday for an oversight group that helps inspectors general root out waste, fraud and abuse.
Trump administration moves to defund inspector general watchdog group
The decision marks the latest example of the administration’s push to limit government oversight activities.
www.washingtonpost.com
September 30, 2025 at 3:11 PM
The Trump war on government accountability continues. They're (illegally) defunding the council of inspectors general.
@ddayen.bsky.social is 100% right: the government has been shut down for months.
prospect.org/politics/202...
prospect.org/politics/202...
The Government Has Been Shut Down for Months
Today is the day we stop pretending that it’s not.
prospect.org
September 30, 2025 at 2:25 PM
@ddayen.bsky.social is 100% right: the government has been shut down for months.
prospect.org/politics/202...
prospect.org/politics/202...
Tonight the Senate passed a Potemkin member security bill that won't protect members but will prevent oversight. The "privacy protections" it provides are for members only -- Sen. Cruz objected to efforts to provide privacy protections to all Americans or to only federal, state, and local electeds.
September 30, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Tonight the Senate passed a Potemkin member security bill that won't protect members but will prevent oversight. The "privacy protections" it provides are for members only -- Sen. Cruz objected to efforts to provide privacy protections to all Americans or to only federal, state, and local electeds.