My dear friend and colleague @chrisdworschak.bsky.social is kicking off #NEPS2025, presenting fascinating work with @kmross.bsky.social on conflict forecasting using… music data! 🎶📈

“Rhythms to riot” is already setting the tone for a brilliant few days of peace science!
#conflictforecasting

🎉 That’s a wrap!
Four days of deep dives into #OpenScience, #preregistration, #replication, #reproducibility, #multiverse, & more—applied to the social sciences.

Huge thanks to all participants for the energy, insights & thoughtful questions!
@ugentopenscience.bsky.social @gasparugent.bsky.social

We’d tackled HARKing & p-hacking—but what about statistical power? 🧠

We broke down how sample size, effect size & alpha shape our ability to detect real effects.

Median power in poli sci = 10% 😬 (Arel-Bundock et al. 2024). To solve this, we introduced:

🧮 G*Power and 📦 pwr in R (recommended)

We wrapped up Day 2 with some hands-on fun:

🔍 Spotted flaws in vague prereg items
🧐 Reviewed my working paper for prereg slip-ups (yes, that was a bit selfish 🙃)—a great way to learn how to review prereg’d work!
📄 Explored both the default & qualitative @OSFramework templates together.

We also tackled some common fears:
😱 “Someone will scoop me!” — Nah, you're ahead of them. It’s time-stamped & can be embargoed.
😬 “What if I change my mind?” — That’s science! Deviate transparently.
😟 “This doesn’t fit my method.” — Are you sure? Check all templates: help.osf.io/article/229-...
...

Why bother? Because PRs/RRs separates exploration from confirmation.

📉 Without it, we risk p-hacking, HARKing, and data dredging. #QRPs

🎯 With it, we build credibility, clarity, and cumulative science. #TrustScience

🙋‍♀️ Selfish reasons: www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/sev...

Excited to be at today’s Reimagining PEACE conference bringing together nearly 300 peace researchers from around the world! Grateful to be part of this global exchange of ideas and insights.

#ActionPEACE2025 | Organized by the Flemish Peace Institute