Amanda Michaud
@amandamichaud.bsky.social
Senior Economist @MinneapolisFed. Co parent of #QLmonhtly https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home
Aroostook born. Loves 🐶,🏃♀️, & macroeconomics. Views my own.
Aroostook born. Loves 🐶,🏃♀️, & macroeconomics. Views my own.
PSA: we've switched the .github repository in which we store our data. Check the google site for the change.
‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️ n/n
‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️ n/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
PSA: we've switched the .github repository in which we store our data. Check the google site for the change.
‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️ n/n
‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️ n/n
Counterpoint to doom and gloom: While most of this data suggests the labor market is turning softer, the starting position is, historically, a pretty strong one. 4/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Counterpoint to doom and gloom: While most of this data suggests the labor market is turning softer, the starting position is, historically, a pretty strong one. 4/n
Quits continue to fall, often interpreted as pessimism or precaution against higher uncertainty about whether a new job would be easy to find. Layoffs seem to be creeping up as well. 4/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Quits continue to fall, often interpreted as pessimism or precaution against higher uncertainty about whether a new job would be easy to find. Layoffs seem to be creeping up as well. 4/n
Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n
Employment to Unemployment flows decline while layoffs remain stable which we show are due to an increase layoffs into non-participation. 2/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Employment to Unemployment flows decline while layoffs remain stable which we show are due to an increase layoffs into non-participation. 2/n
Bottom Line: Quits weaker in level & momentum than other indicators. In forecasting, quits add most info about urate in medium run (+2 quarters). Still, we think current unusual pessimism in quits could reflect increased uncertainty about the future rather than material risks. 7/7
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Bottom Line: Quits weaker in level & momentum than other indicators. In forecasting, quits add most info about urate in medium run (+2 quarters). Still, we think current unusual pessimism in quits could reflect increased uncertainty about the future rather than material risks. 7/7
2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n
In the monthly brief (qlmonthly.github.io/updates/QLmo...) we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
In the monthly brief (qlmonthly.github.io/updates/QLmo...) we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n
Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n
Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n
Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n
And for the nerds: the monthly brief explains why our data ARE NOT affected by BLS revisions. (but fyi JOLTS are)
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
And for the nerds: the monthly brief explains why our data ARE NOT affected by BLS revisions. (but fyi JOLTS are)
tldr; nothing notable in January means we're MORE confident that the labor market is settled in, but also no strong signal from flows about where we'll be tomorrow. Welcome to the random-walk! Of course there is a lot going on, we just report inference from flows.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
tldr; nothing notable in January means we're MORE confident that the labor market is settled in, but also no strong signal from flows about where we'll be tomorrow. Welcome to the random-walk! Of course there is a lot going on, we just report inference from flows.
Job finding rates for unemployed prime age improved in January, but the 6-mo moving average did not shift up. Yet again, the current job finding rate is pretty normal.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Job finding rates for unemployed prime age improved in January, but the 6-mo moving average did not shift up. Yet again, the current job finding rate is pretty normal.
Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.
That EU fell more than layoffs means that a larger share of laid off prime age workers exited the labor force in December and January. This was out of historical "normal" but the data are noisy and so we'll check in next month.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
That EU fell more than layoffs means that a larger share of laid off prime age workers exited the labor force in December and January. This was out of historical "normal" but the data are noisy and so we'll check in next month.
I empathize. Our battle, believe it or not, is convincing fellow macroeconomists that there's a difference between a quit and a layoff! But, yeah: point well taken.
January 21, 2025 at 10:27 PM
I empathize. Our battle, believe it or not, is convincing fellow macroeconomists that there's a difference between a quit and a layoff! But, yeah: point well taken.