Amanda Michaud
@amandamichaud.bsky.social
Senior Economist @MinneapolisFed. Co parent of #QLmonhtly https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home
Aroostook born. Loves 🐶,🏃♀️, & macroeconomics. Views my own.
Aroostook born. Loves 🐶,🏃♀️, & macroeconomics. Views my own.
Quits continue to fall, often interpreted as pessimism or precaution against higher uncertainty about whether a new job would be easy to find. Layoffs seem to be creeping up as well. 4/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Quits continue to fall, often interpreted as pessimism or precaution against higher uncertainty about whether a new job would be easy to find. Layoffs seem to be creeping up as well. 4/n
Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n
Employment to Unemployment flows decline while layoffs remain stable which we show are due to an increase layoffs into non-participation. 2/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Employment to Unemployment flows decline while layoffs remain stable which we show are due to an increase layoffs into non-participation. 2/n
Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n
April 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n
Lots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that K. Ellieroth and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA
Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.
Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.
March 28, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Lots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that K. Ellieroth and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA
Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.
Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.
2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n
In the monthly brief (qlmonthly.github.io/updates/QLmo...) we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
In the monthly brief (qlmonthly.github.io/updates/QLmo...) we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n
Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n
Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n
Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n
March 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n
Job finding rates for unemployed prime age improved in January, but the 6-mo moving average did not shift up. Yet again, the current job finding rate is pretty normal.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Job finding rates for unemployed prime age improved in January, but the 6-mo moving average did not shift up. Yet again, the current job finding rate is pretty normal.
Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.
That EU fell more than layoffs means that a larger share of laid off prime age workers exited the labor force in December and January. This was out of historical "normal" but the data are noisy and so we'll check in next month.
February 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
That EU fell more than layoffs means that a larger share of laid off prime age workers exited the labor force in December and January. This was out of historical "normal" but the data are noisy and so we'll check in next month.
Third, while job finding rates improved in December, the moving average remained low. Moving averages are used to remove monthly volatility common in these CPS series. 3/3
January 21, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Third, while job finding rates improved in December, the moving average remained low. Moving averages are used to remove monthly volatility common in these CPS series. 3/3
Second, EU rates (employed workers who become unemployed) remain stable although layoffs to non-employment rose in December. This is because the share of laid off workers exiting the labor force also increased in December (fyi: labor force exit data are too on our website). 2/3
January 21, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Second, EU rates (employed workers who become unemployed) remain stable although layoffs to non-employment rose in December. This is because the share of laid off workers exiting the labor force also increased in December (fyi: labor force exit data are too on our website). 2/3
Prime age job finding rates from unemployment (UE) and non-participation (NE) (3/3)
December 17, 2024 at 8:11 PM
Prime age job finding rates from unemployment (UE) and non-participation (NE) (3/3)
Percent of prime age employed laid-off versus percent of prime age employed moving to unemployment (EU). (2/3)
December 17, 2024 at 8:11 PM
Percent of prime age employed laid-off versus percent of prime age employed moving to unemployment (EU). (2/3)
#QLmonthly briefing is posted . The word of the month is "resilience". Layoffs to non-employment begin decline after rising for several months. Quits continue recent rebound suggesting worker confidence in the labor market's future 1/n
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
#QLmonthly briefing is posted . The word of the month is "resilience". Layoffs to non-employment begin decline after rising for several months. Quits continue recent rebound suggesting worker confidence in the labor market's future 1/n
The annual conference I organize is this Thursday, October 3rd! I invite you to check out the wonderful program to be kicked off with remarks from Raphael Bostic followed by a conversation with Neel Kashkari. Please join us via live stream ()
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
The annual conference I organize is this Thursday, October 3rd! I invite you to check out the wonderful program to be kicked off with remarks from Raphael Bostic followed by a conversation with Neel Kashkari. Please join us via live stream ()
#QLmonthly briefing is posted . Most people caught the rise in layoffs this month but did you see the rise in quits? Quits typically rise in good times! This is just one month, so watch Sep to see if it is more than a blip. 1/n
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
#QLmonthly briefing is posted . Most people caught the rise in layoffs this month but did you see the rise in quits? Quits typically rise in good times! This is just one month, so watch Sep to see if it is more than a blip. 1/n
#QLmonthly data have been updated with August's release (). Commentary coming after blackout will focus on time aggregation bias and comparison to JOLTS. Enjoy silent graph updates in following tweets, starting with quits and layoffs to non-employment (1/3)
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
#QLmonthly data have been updated with August's release (). Commentary coming after blackout will focus on time aggregation bias and comparison to JOLTS. Enjoy silent graph updates in following tweets, starting with quits and layoffs to non-employment (1/3)
#QLmonthly update brings good news: layoffs seem to have stabilized from June to July after steady rises in the first half of the year. Falling quits have also paused. () 1/n
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
#QLmonthly update brings good news: layoffs seem to have stabilized from June to July after steady rises in the first half of the year. Falling quits have also paused. () 1/n
📢Announcing *new* monthly series of quits and layoffs reported by households! We see a notable sign of labor market softening: layoffs have risen steadily and significantly since January 2024. Do I have your attention #JOLTS and #jobsday fans? #econtwitter 🧵1/n
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
📢Announcing *new* monthly series of quits and layoffs reported by households! We see a notable sign of labor market softening: layoffs have risen steadily and significantly since January 2024. Do I have your attention #JOLTS and #jobsday fans? #econtwitter 🧵1/n
Industrial policy is trending @nberpubs! Cue the time machine to my 2014 JIE on capital controls as industrial policy. Remember: second best policies that tilt the inter- Euler (capital controls, exchange rates, etc) get further from first best when growth externalities get large
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
Industrial policy is trending @nberpubs! Cue the time machine to my 2014 JIE on capital controls as industrial policy. Remember: second best policies that tilt the inter- Euler (capital controls, exchange rates, etc) get further from first best when growth externalities get large
Pumped to be giving a seminar at UBC but how am I going to compete with perfect weather to take in the stunning fall colors? I'll do my best to make the business cycle implications precautionary labor supply as exciting as possible! 🍁
November 19, 2024 at 7:00 PM
Pumped to be giving a seminar at UBC but how am I going to compete with perfect weather to take in the stunning fall colors? I'll do my best to make the business cycle implications precautionary labor supply as exciting as possible! 🍁