This fear generates 3 key dynamics:

1⃣ The demobilization of the minority group, which engages in policing and sanctioning dissenting coethnics.

2⃣ Countermobilization of coethnics– loyal civilians and militias participate in repression.

3⃣ Elite cohesion/ no defections.

I distinguish between two types of minority autocracies:

1⃣ Those that exclude a majority ethnic group.

2⃣ Those that exclude other minorities in highly fractionalized societies where no group is a majority.

This fear generates 3 key dynamics:

1⃣ The demobilization of the minority group, which engages in policing and sanctioning dissenting coethnics.

2⃣ Countermobilization of coethnics– loyal civilians and militias participate in repression.

3⃣ Elite cohesion/ no defections.

I find that minority regimes excluding a single majority group (e.g, Syria, Bahrain, Apartheid S. Africa) are exceptionally durable. (3 times less likely to breakdown).

Why?
Fear of majoritarian rule creates a high threat perception among ruling minorities and a largely "unconditional loyalty".

I distinguish between two types of minority autocracies:

1⃣ Those that exclude a majority ethnic group.

2⃣ Those that exclude other minorities in highly fractionalized societies where no group is a majority.

It took 13 years of incredible revolution, war, displacement, and devastation, but the Assad family's 54-year brutal rule has finally ended today. 12 million displaced people and refugees can now return home, and thousands of prisoners have been freed. Truly extraordinary!