Alpha in Academia
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In the AI sector, stocks that build infrastructure (data centers) have outperformed those that stand to gain revenue from AI applications, and those with productivity problems that stand to benefit most from AI.
November 18, 2025 at 10:03 PM
In the AI sector, stocks that build infrastructure (data centers) have outperformed those that stand to gain revenue from AI applications, and those with productivity problems that stand to benefit most from AI.
The topic of affordability is rising in the news, and likely reflects the "K-Shaped" economy.
November 17, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The topic of affordability is rising in the news, and likely reflects the "K-Shaped" economy.
Maybe my pessimism is unreasonable. Easy monetary and fiscal policy points to continued economic growth:
November 16, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Maybe my pessimism is unreasonable. Easy monetary and fiscal policy points to continued economic growth:
Not a good sign for the economy…
November 15, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Not a good sign for the economy…
Variant Perception’s Asset Allocation Dashboard:
November 14, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Variant Perception’s Asset Allocation Dashboard:
A deteriorating labor market and upward pressure on inflation makes it difficult for the Fed to make a decision in December:
November 12, 2025 at 4:08 PM
A deteriorating labor market and upward pressure on inflation makes it difficult for the Fed to make a decision in December:
Alternative labor market data sources point to a weakening labor market. The ending of the government shutdown should provide greater insight into the health of the labor market:
November 11, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Alternative labor market data sources point to a weakening labor market. The ending of the government shutdown should provide greater insight into the health of the labor market:
Before and during the pandemic, the lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. Since 2023, this relationship has flipped:
November 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Before and during the pandemic, the lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. Since 2023, this relationship has flipped:
Demographic challenges in China:
November 9, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Demographic challenges in China:
And another one...
November 6, 2025 at 3:12 PM
And another one...
Another warning sign from the economy…
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Another warning sign from the economy…
While the government shutdown is preventing the release of official labor market data, Torsten Slok provides some alternative measures.
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
November 4, 2025 at 4:35 PM
While the government shutdown is preventing the release of official labor market data, Torsten Slok provides some alternative measures.
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
Volatility drag is the difference between the arithmetic and geometric mean, and arises due to the compounding effect of gains and losses.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
November 3, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Volatility drag is the difference between the arithmetic and geometric mean, and arises due to the compounding effect of gains and losses.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
Despite the constant alarm over high energy prices, the reality is more stable: electricity prices have not outpaced inflation over the past decade.
November 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Despite the constant alarm over high energy prices, the reality is more stable: electricity prices have not outpaced inflation over the past decade.
For companies with more than $50mm in liabilities, weekly bankruptcy filings are declining into their typical range.
October 30, 2025 at 4:38 PM
For companies with more than $50mm in liabilities, weekly bankruptcy filings are declining into their typical range.
U.S. consumer confidence continues to fall as the U.S. equity markets hit all time highs.
October 30, 2025 at 3:54 AM
U.S. consumer confidence continues to fall as the U.S. equity markets hit all time highs.
Even with rising inflation in core goods and food, short term inflation predictions are lower:
October 27, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Even with rising inflation in core goods and food, short term inflation predictions are lower:
Will the US maintain superiority in the AI race?
October 26, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Will the US maintain superiority in the AI race?
A strategy that longs the most shorted stocks would have performed well YTD.
October 25, 2025 at 5:02 PM
A strategy that longs the most shorted stocks would have performed well YTD.
For the first time in two decades, you can actually get a better yield from 10-year Japanese Government Bonds than from dividends in the S&P 500
October 23, 2025 at 5:55 PM
For the first time in two decades, you can actually get a better yield from 10-year Japanese Government Bonds than from dividends in the S&P 500
This is a bit scary. There is basically no growth in capex spending outside of the AI sphere for the moment.
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
October 22, 2025 at 4:38 PM
This is a bit scary. There is basically no growth in capex spending outside of the AI sphere for the moment.
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
China is focusing on other markets for exports. The weak CNY also makes their exports more competitive.
October 21, 2025 at 3:41 PM
China is focusing on other markets for exports. The weak CNY also makes their exports more competitive.
The recent surge in gold and cryptocurrencies to record highs has sparked claims that the U.S. "debasement trade" is in full swing, but the bond market tells a different story:
October 20, 2025 at 10:23 PM
The recent surge in gold and cryptocurrencies to record highs has sparked claims that the U.S. "debasement trade" is in full swing, but the bond market tells a different story:
Credit indicators are turning bullish:
October 19, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Credit indicators are turning bullish:
The market is pricing in more cuts than the FOMC is:
October 18, 2025 at 7:48 PM
The market is pricing in more cuts than the FOMC is: