Alpha in Academia
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A curated newsletter featuring recent academic papers on financial markets, economics, and quantitative finance. Join the 6500+ subscribers:
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The topic of affordability is rising in the news, and likely reflects the "K-Shaped" economy.
November 17, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The topic of affordability is rising in the news, and likely reflects the "K-Shaped" economy.
Maybe my pessimism is unreasonable. Easy monetary and fiscal policy points to continued economic growth:
November 16, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Maybe my pessimism is unreasonable. Easy monetary and fiscal policy points to continued economic growth:
Not a good sign for the economy…
November 15, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Not a good sign for the economy…
Variant Perception’s Asset Allocation Dashboard:
November 14, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Variant Perception’s Asset Allocation Dashboard:
A deteriorating labor market and upward pressure on inflation makes it difficult for the Fed to make a decision in December:
November 12, 2025 at 4:08 PM
A deteriorating labor market and upward pressure on inflation makes it difficult for the Fed to make a decision in December:
Alternative labor market data sources point to a weakening labor market. The ending of the government shutdown should provide greater insight into the health of the labor market:
November 11, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Alternative labor market data sources point to a weakening labor market. The ending of the government shutdown should provide greater insight into the health of the labor market:
Before and during the pandemic, the lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. Since 2023, this relationship has flipped:
November 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Before and during the pandemic, the lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. Since 2023, this relationship has flipped:
Demographic challenges in China:
November 9, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Demographic challenges in China:
A math professor became the most successful hedge fund manager ever.
Jim Simons, once a professor at Harvard and MIT, founded Renaissance Technologies, where the Medallion Fund averaged 66% annual returns over 30 years.
Academic research can be powerful - subscribe for weekly summaries!
Jim Simons, once a professor at Harvard and MIT, founded Renaissance Technologies, where the Medallion Fund averaged 66% annual returns over 30 years.
Academic research can be powerful - subscribe for weekly summaries!
November 8, 2025 at 4:11 PM
A math professor became the most successful hedge fund manager ever.
Jim Simons, once a professor at Harvard and MIT, founded Renaissance Technologies, where the Medallion Fund averaged 66% annual returns over 30 years.
Academic research can be powerful - subscribe for weekly summaries!
Jim Simons, once a professor at Harvard and MIT, founded Renaissance Technologies, where the Medallion Fund averaged 66% annual returns over 30 years.
Academic research can be powerful - subscribe for weekly summaries!
And another one...
November 6, 2025 at 3:12 PM
And another one...
Another warning sign from the economy…
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Another warning sign from the economy…
While the government shutdown is preventing the release of official labor market data, Torsten Slok provides some alternative measures.
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
November 4, 2025 at 4:35 PM
While the government shutdown is preventing the release of official labor market data, Torsten Slok provides some alternative measures.
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
Here are two charts that I found interesting:
Volatility drag is the difference between the arithmetic and geometric mean, and arises due to the compounding effect of gains and losses.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
November 3, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Volatility drag is the difference between the arithmetic and geometric mean, and arises due to the compounding effect of gains and losses.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
It has a significant impact on leveraged ETFs.
This week’s newsletter features research papers that cover sunset-driven bond mispricings, crypto forecasting with Reddit sentiment, the dollar's security premium, and the partisan cost of CEO activism.
November 2, 2025 at 10:02 PM
This week’s newsletter features research papers that cover sunset-driven bond mispricings, crypto forecasting with Reddit sentiment, the dollar's security premium, and the partisan cost of CEO activism.
Despite the constant alarm over high energy prices, the reality is more stable: electricity prices have not outpaced inflation over the past decade.
November 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Despite the constant alarm over high energy prices, the reality is more stable: electricity prices have not outpaced inflation over the past decade.
For companies with more than $50mm in liabilities, weekly bankruptcy filings are declining into their typical range.
October 30, 2025 at 4:38 PM
For companies with more than $50mm in liabilities, weekly bankruptcy filings are declining into their typical range.
Reposted by Alpha in Academia
Elon Musk’s entry into politics has had an impact on Tesla.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
October 28, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Elon Musk’s entry into politics has had an impact on Tesla.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
U.S. consumer confidence continues to fall as the U.S. equity markets hit all time highs.
October 30, 2025 at 3:54 AM
U.S. consumer confidence continues to fall as the U.S. equity markets hit all time highs.
Elon Musk’s entry into politics has had an impact on Tesla.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
October 28, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Elon Musk’s entry into politics has had an impact on Tesla.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
A new study finds that “without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles.”
Other carmakers' sales rose 17-22% from substitution.
Even with rising inflation in core goods and food, short term inflation predictions are lower:
October 27, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Even with rising inflation in core goods and food, short term inflation predictions are lower:
Will the US maintain superiority in the AI race?
October 26, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Will the US maintain superiority in the AI race?
A strategy that longs the most shorted stocks would have performed well YTD.
October 25, 2025 at 5:02 PM
A strategy that longs the most shorted stocks would have performed well YTD.
For the first time in two decades, you can actually get a better yield from 10-year Japanese Government Bonds than from dividends in the S&P 500
October 23, 2025 at 5:55 PM
For the first time in two decades, you can actually get a better yield from 10-year Japanese Government Bonds than from dividends in the S&P 500
Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei say that the US is now entering an era of “jobless growth” — an economy where GDP climbs, but hiring doesn’t.
In a recent analysis, they argue that most of that growth will come from AI-driven productivity rather than fresh hires.
In a recent analysis, they argue that most of that growth will come from AI-driven productivity rather than fresh hires.
October 23, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei say that the US is now entering an era of “jobless growth” — an economy where GDP climbs, but hiring doesn’t.
In a recent analysis, they argue that most of that growth will come from AI-driven productivity rather than fresh hires.
In a recent analysis, they argue that most of that growth will come from AI-driven productivity rather than fresh hires.
This is a bit scary. There is basically no growth in capex spending outside of the AI sphere for the moment.
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
October 22, 2025 at 4:38 PM
This is a bit scary. There is basically no growth in capex spending outside of the AI sphere for the moment.
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy:
The positive real fed funds rate is impacting most industries (besides AI). If AI / datacenter capex growth slows (and other capex does not pick up), it could mean trouble for the economy: