It never wears off! 🤣

I love the cycling reference you pulled out for this one!

Needs more parking lots 😉

And finally, for any burgeoning forecasters out there, the tilt of the upper trough matters! If this upper trough were aligned from south central MN to eastern ND it would be game on!

Now I'm not saying it's a bad thing that we won't have every news agency in the country doing a live shot from in front of a pile of debris in MN Tue morning. I just wonder what happens next time we need to roll out a message about a severe weather outbreak and this is what they'll remember...

My concern is what kind of credibility hit does the weather community at large take as we start this severe season? When I'm answering questions of people wondering if they should bring their pets to work because of how bad they fear the storms will be, the messaging has gone much too far.

The end result is we get a QLCS that is forced along the cold front. No long track supercells with massive wedge tornadoes. Just a healthy line of storms with some 1-2" hail, sporadic damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado or two. Certainly nothing we'll still talk about in 10 years. (3/4)

This 500 mb chart at 7pm this is what's been giving me pause about this being a significant event. Note the positively tilted trough from eastern SD to northwest MN. This positive tilt means the best upper forcing will lag behind the best severe environment. (2/probably 4 now!)

It feels like the administration is quickly transitioning from "who's next to go" to "what's next to go". The US has been the global leader in Atmo Sci research going back to at least the revolutionary work of Ted Fujita in the 70s. I'm afraid we may be witnessing us handing that status away...