M. Ali Mokhtari
@alimok.bsky.social
Applied Economics with a focus on Child Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
“Efficient Redistribution: Universal Basic Income and Human Capital Investment” (SSRN) — papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The session will be in English with simultaneous Arabic interpretation.
#SocialProtection #ArabSocialProtection #MENA #ClimateAction #CashTransfers #Economics
The session will be in English with simultaneous Arabic interpretation.
#SocialProtection #ArabSocialProtection #MENA #ClimateAction #CashTransfers #Economics
Efficient Redistribution: Universal Basic Income and Human Capital Investment
<div>
<p>We study the medium- and long-term effects of a nationwide, UBI-like program launched in Iran in 2010. Using a difference-in-differences event study,
papers.ssrn.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:29 PM
“Efficient Redistribution: Universal Basic Income and Human Capital Investment” (SSRN) — papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The session will be in English with simultaneous Arabic interpretation.
#SocialProtection #ArabSocialProtection #MENA #ClimateAction #CashTransfers #Economics
The session will be in English with simultaneous Arabic interpretation.
#SocialProtection #ArabSocialProtection #MENA #ClimateAction #CashTransfers #Economics
Government representatives from Arab countries will participate. I’ll present evidence from my research on Iran’s experience replacing fuel subsidies with cash transfers, drawing on:
“Fueling Inequality: A Novel Estimate from Large-Scale Reforms” (JEEM) — doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
“Fueling Inequality: A Novel Estimate from Large-Scale Reforms” (JEEM) — doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
Redirecting
doi.org
November 8, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Government representatives from Arab countries will participate. I’ll present evidence from my research on Iran’s experience replacing fuel subsidies with cash transfers, drawing on:
“Fueling Inequality: A Novel Estimate from Large-Scale Reforms” (JEEM) — doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
“Fueling Inequality: A Novel Estimate from Large-Scale Reforms” (JEEM) — doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
in collaboration with the International Social Security Association (ISSA) and supported by socialprotection.org.
On 11 November, 13:00 (GMT+3), we’ll discuss “Social Protection as an Enabler of Climate Action and a Just Transition in MENA.”
On 11 November, 13:00 (GMT+3), we’ll discuss “Social Protection as an Enabler of Climate Action and a Just Transition in MENA.”
socialprotection.org
November 8, 2025 at 7:29 PM
in collaboration with the International Social Security Association (ISSA) and supported by socialprotection.org.
On 11 November, 13:00 (GMT+3), we’ll discuss “Social Protection as an Enabler of Climate Action and a Just Transition in MENA.”
On 11 November, 13:00 (GMT+3), we’ll discuss “Social Protection as an Enabler of Climate Action and a Just Transition in MENA.”
Thanks to @lorenzkueng.bsky.social (advisor), Molly Lipscomb (JEEM co-editor), and two anonymous referees. Grateful to USI and IdEP for a supportive environment. Paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
Redirecting
doi.org
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Thanks to @lorenzkueng.bsky.social (advisor), Molly Lipscomb (JEEM co-editor), and two anonymous referees. Grateful to USI and IdEP for a supportive environment. Paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
Robustness: Sanctions ≠ driver. No systematic link with inequality around reforms; cash correlates with reductions. Results hold with sanction controls.
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Robustness: Sanctions ≠ driver. No systematic link with inequality around reforms; cash correlates with reductions. Results hold with sanction controls.
Long-run inequality: Expenditure Gini, 1984–2019, with reform timings marked. Post-reform drops align with cash waves.
Distributional anatomy: Decile shares over time, shown relative to Decile 8 (reform-neutral benchmark). Bottom deciles gain post-reform.
Distributional anatomy: Decile shares over time, shown relative to Decile 8 (reform-neutral benchmark). Bottom deciles gain post-reform.
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Long-run inequality: Expenditure Gini, 1984–2019, with reform timings marked. Post-reform drops align with cash waves.
Distributional anatomy: Decile shares over time, shown relative to Decile 8 (reform-neutral benchmark). Bottom deciles gain post-reform.
Distributional anatomy: Decile shares over time, shown relative to Decile 8 (reform-neutral benchmark). Bottom deciles gain post-reform.
Policy lineage: “Oil-to-Cash” (Moss–Lambert–Majerowicz, 2015) argues for redirecting resource rents to citizens via direct transfers.
#CashTransfers @cgdev.org @worldbanknotes.bsky.social
@unep.org
#CashTransfers @cgdev.org @worldbanknotes.bsky.social
@unep.org
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Policy lineage: “Oil-to-Cash” (Moss–Lambert–Majerowicz, 2015) argues for redirecting resource rents to citizens via direct transfers.
#CashTransfers @cgdev.org @worldbanknotes.bsky.social
@unep.org
#CashTransfers @cgdev.org @worldbanknotes.bsky.social
@unep.org
Mechanism: Household balance sheet microdata show a net cash surplus among poorer households—transfers more than offset higher energy costs. (Figures below)
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Mechanism: Household balance sheet microdata show a net cash surplus among poorer households—transfers more than offset higher energy costs. (Figures below)
Everywhere UBI is relatively expensive. In Iran, the program was also expensive, accounting for approximately 7% of the country's Annual GDP during the first three years.
May 23, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Everywhere UBI is relatively expensive. In Iran, the program was also expensive, accounting for approximately 7% of the country's Annual GDP during the first three years.
In the U.S case, Hoynes and Rothestein (2019) discuss that there would be also social stigma. Many poor households shy to register or receive such a specific aid, because of social norms pressure.
May 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
In the U.S case, Hoynes and Rothestein (2019) discuss that there would be also social stigma. Many poor households shy to register or receive such a specific aid, because of social norms pressure.
This paper discussed well the potential benefits and costs of UBI in the USA and advanced economics:
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries | Annual Reviews
We discuss the potential role of universal basic incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well-develo...
www.annualreviews.org
May 23, 2025 at 7:39 PM
This paper discussed well the potential benefits and costs of UBI in the USA and advanced economics:
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
That’s why further research is essential. Previous studies already suggest that labor supply reductions from cash transfers are generally modest—not the dramatic declines some fear.
May 23, 2025 at 6:42 PM
That’s why further research is essential. Previous studies already suggest that labor supply reductions from cash transfers are generally modest—not the dramatic declines some fear.
The truth is, we still know very little about the long-term impacts of Universal Basic Income. We don’t yet have enough evidence to say whether the short-term inflationary costs outweigh the long-term benefits.
May 23, 2025 at 6:42 PM
The truth is, we still know very little about the long-term impacts of Universal Basic Income. We don’t yet have enough evidence to say whether the short-term inflationary costs outweigh the long-term benefits.
The benefits might be far greater if the transfers support human capital investment—leading to a more productive labor force, reduced crime, higher long-term growth, and overall welfare gains, even for those funding the program.
May 23, 2025 at 6:42 PM
The benefits might be far greater if the transfers support human capital investment—leading to a more productive labor force, reduced crime, higher long-term growth, and overall welfare gains, even for those funding the program.
Yes, demand may rise for basic goods, but what is the actual magnitude of inflation? And more importantly—what if the basic goods in question, such as nutrition and education, significantly improve quality of life and outcomes for the next generation?
May 23, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Yes, demand may rise for basic goods, but what is the actual magnitude of inflation? And more importantly—what if the basic goods in question, such as nutrition and education, significantly improve quality of life and outcomes for the next generation?
When no one pays for UBI, demand naturally increases. But when high-income individuals—or heavy energy users, as in the case of Iran—bear the cost, their demand decreases, effectively turning the policy into a redistributive mechanism.
May 23, 2025 at 6:09 PM
When no one pays for UBI, demand naturally increases. But when high-income individuals—or heavy energy users, as in the case of Iran—bear the cost, their demand decreases, effectively turning the policy into a redistributive mechanism.
Notably, there is a large shift from child labor to schooling among children under 18 and the strongest consumption responses in education and nutrition, and no significant rise in spending on temptation goods. The paper is available on SSRN, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#UBI
#Econtwitter
#UBI
#Econtwitter
Efficient Redistribution: Universal Basic Income and Human Capital Investment
<div>
<p>The key question in the literature on universal basic income (UBI) programs is whether <span>potential reductions in labor supply can be offset b
papers.ssrn.com
May 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Notably, there is a large shift from child labor to schooling among children under 18 and the strongest consumption responses in education and nutrition, and no significant rise in spending on temptation goods. The paper is available on SSRN, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#UBI
#Econtwitter
#UBI
#Econtwitter
Transfers, net of energy prices change, exceed 50% of income per capita for the bottom 10% of the population and districts. Results reveal a significant reduction in inequality and challenge pessimistic views on labor supply reductions and increased consumption of non-productive goods.
May 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Transfers, net of energy prices change, exceed 50% of income per capita for the bottom 10% of the population and districts. Results reveal a significant reduction in inequality and challenge pessimistic views on labor supply reductions and increased consumption of non-productive goods.
High-income groups did not benefit from the reform and likely wouldn’t in any UBI program. That’s what the data shows.
📄 Link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
📄 Link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Efficient Redistribution: Universal Basic Income and Human Capital Investment
<div>
<p>The key question in the literature on universal basic income (UBI) programs is whether <span>potential reductions in labor supply can be offset b
papers.ssrn.com
May 23, 2025 at 5:23 PM
High-income groups did not benefit from the reform and likely wouldn’t in any UBI program. That’s what the data shows.
📄 Link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
📄 Link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....