Alfie Stirling
@alfie-stirling.bsky.social
Director of Insight & Policy and Chief Economist at JRF | previously NEF & IPPR | "all models are wrong, but some are useful" (G Box)
Real average weekly earnings have risen by £2 in the past year.
November 11, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Real average weekly earnings have risen by £2 in the past year.
"More wage growth in first 10 months of Labour than in first 10 years of Conservatives" is true only on a technicality, due to Covid.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
September 29, 2025 at 12:40 PM
"More wage growth in first 10 months of Labour than in first 10 years of Conservatives" is true only on a technicality, due to Covid.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
There has been essentially no growth in real wages for 10 months.
September 16, 2025 at 9:07 AM
There has been essentially no growth in real wages for 10 months.
How can you tell when a country is over adjusting for financial markets reaction/fiscal rules?
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
April 5, 2025 at 1:11 PM
How can you tell when a country is over adjusting for financial markets reaction/fiscal rules?
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
When you adjust for these things, it more than wipes out rising incomes under the government's measure.
The danger is that the Chancellor's numbers won't reflect the lived experience of families.
You can't buy food with imputed rent, and you can't just stop paying your rent or mortgage.
The danger is that the Chancellor's numbers won't reflect the lived experience of families.
You can't buy food with imputed rent, and you can't just stop paying your rent or mortgage.
March 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
When you adjust for these things, it more than wipes out rising incomes under the government's measure.
The danger is that the Chancellor's numbers won't reflect the lived experience of families.
You can't buy food with imputed rent, and you can't just stop paying your rent or mortgage.
The danger is that the Chancellor's numbers won't reflect the lived experience of families.
You can't buy food with imputed rent, and you can't just stop paying your rent or mortgage.
Not everyone is affected equally.
The poorest third could see their incomes fall around twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income, including cuts to disability benefits.
The poorest third could see their incomes fall around twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income, including cuts to disability benefits.
March 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Not everyone is affected equally.
The poorest third could see their incomes fall around twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income, including cuts to disability benefits.
The poorest third could see their incomes fall around twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income, including cuts to disability benefits.
The main drivers are threefold.
1. Interest rates are high (up on Oct forecast), increasing unemployment and feeding through to higher housing costs.
2. Inflation (also forecast to be higher in the near-term) reducing real earnings growth.
3. Frozen tax thresholds sees % tax in earnings rise.
1. Interest rates are high (up on Oct forecast), increasing unemployment and feeding through to higher housing costs.
2. Inflation (also forecast to be higher in the near-term) reducing real earnings growth.
3. Frozen tax thresholds sees % tax in earnings rise.
March 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
The main drivers are threefold.
1. Interest rates are high (up on Oct forecast), increasing unemployment and feeding through to higher housing costs.
2. Inflation (also forecast to be higher in the near-term) reducing real earnings growth.
3. Frozen tax thresholds sees % tax in earnings rise.
1. Interest rates are high (up on Oct forecast), increasing unemployment and feeding through to higher housing costs.
2. Inflation (also forecast to be higher in the near-term) reducing real earnings growth.
3. Frozen tax thresholds sees % tax in earnings rise.
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
March 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
This from the OBR on Real Household Disposable Income is key.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
March 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
This from the OBR on Real Household Disposable Income is key.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
The past year could prove the high point of the parliament for living standards.
March 23, 2025 at 7:34 AM
The past year could prove the high point of the parliament for living standards.
In case anyone was wondering, this is what it looks like visually.
March 22, 2025 at 9:12 PM
In case anyone was wondering, this is what it looks like visually.
But if it doesn't, it will put this parliament at risk of being the first on modern record (since 1955) to see falling living standards from start to finish, by the OBR's main measure.
(this chart is from @resfoundation.bsky.social)
(this chart is from @resfoundation.bsky.social)
March 22, 2025 at 9:02 PM
But if it doesn't, it will put this parliament at risk of being the first on modern record (since 1955) to see falling living standards from start to finish, by the OBR's main measure.
(this chart is from @resfoundation.bsky.social)
(this chart is from @resfoundation.bsky.social)
The OBR measure of 'real household disposable incomes' (RHDI) per head is an inferior proxy for lived experience, compared to our measure using DWP data.
Unlike our preferred measure, their RHDI is gross of housing costs. But even with these wished away the picture is bleak.
Unlike our preferred measure, their RHDI is gross of housing costs. But even with these wished away the picture is bleak.
March 22, 2025 at 9:02 PM
The OBR measure of 'real household disposable incomes' (RHDI) per head is an inferior proxy for lived experience, compared to our measure using DWP data.
Unlike our preferred measure, their RHDI is gross of housing costs. But even with these wished away the picture is bleak.
Unlike our preferred measure, their RHDI is gross of housing costs. But even with these wished away the picture is bleak.
Not everyone is affected equally.
The poorest third could see their incomes fall twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income (even before disability cuts).
The poorest third could see their incomes fall twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income (even before disability cuts).
March 22, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Not everyone is affected equally.
The poorest third could see their incomes fall twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income (even before disability cuts).
The poorest third could see their incomes fall twice as fast compared with the middle and the top, 2025-30.
They are disproportionately effected by job losses, rising housing costs and falling real benefit income (even before disability cuts).
At the average, this sees:
1. Housing costs rising faster than inflation; mortgages up £1300/yr, rents £300/yr by 2030 (green).
2. Inflation rising faster than earnings; real earnings down £700/yr (dark blue).
3. Real tax constant despite lower earnings, (light blue).
1. Housing costs rising faster than inflation; mortgages up £1300/yr, rents £300/yr by 2030 (green).
2. Inflation rising faster than earnings; real earnings down £700/yr (dark blue).
3. Real tax constant despite lower earnings, (light blue).
March 22, 2025 at 9:02 PM
At the average, this sees:
1. Housing costs rising faster than inflation; mortgages up £1300/yr, rents £300/yr by 2030 (green).
2. Inflation rising faster than earnings; real earnings down £700/yr (dark blue).
3. Real tax constant despite lower earnings, (light blue).
1. Housing costs rising faster than inflation; mortgages up £1300/yr, rents £300/yr by 2030 (green).
2. Inflation rising faster than earnings; real earnings down £700/yr (dark blue).
3. Real tax constant despite lower earnings, (light blue).
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
March 22, 2025 at 9:02 PM
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
2. Feeling economically insecure is at least as important as other issues, such as immigration or the economy more broadly. 3/
February 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
2. Feeling economically insecure is at least as important as other issues, such as immigration or the economy more broadly. 3/
Two main takeaways:
1. Feeling economically insecure is a key factor associated with Labour voters saying they plan to defect. 2/
1. Feeling economically insecure is a key factor associated with Labour voters saying they plan to defect. 2/
February 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Two main takeaways:
1. Feeling economically insecure is a key factor associated with Labour voters saying they plan to defect. 2/
1. Feeling economically insecure is a key factor associated with Labour voters saying they plan to defect. 2/
The real danger is people just don't feel it.
And in the end that will matter more than a tick next to the official target in five years time.
And in the end that will matter more than a tick next to the official target in five years time.
December 5, 2024 at 7:03 PM
The real danger is people just don't feel it.
And in the end that will matter more than a tick next to the official target in five years time.
And in the end that will matter more than a tick next to the official target in five years time.
They are highly likely to achieve their target of higher real disposable income per head by a national accounts measure.
After all, this has happened for every parliament since records began - I don't think the regional element adds too much jeopardy here either.
After all, this has happened for every parliament since records began - I don't think the regional element adds too much jeopardy here either.
December 5, 2024 at 7:02 PM
They are highly likely to achieve their target of higher real disposable income per head by a national accounts measure.
After all, this has happened for every parliament since records began - I don't think the regional element adds too much jeopardy here either.
After all, this has happened for every parliament since records began - I don't think the regional element adds too much jeopardy here either.
A welcome shift in emphasis from GDP to 'living standards' (disposable incomes) from government today.
Two key things missing in their formal target though:
1. Housing costs - currently rising faster than real incomes.
2. The distributional - inequality currently set to rise.
Two key things missing in their formal target though:
1. Housing costs - currently rising faster than real incomes.
2. The distributional - inequality currently set to rise.
December 5, 2024 at 6:53 PM
A welcome shift in emphasis from GDP to 'living standards' (disposable incomes) from government today.
Two key things missing in their formal target though:
1. Housing costs - currently rising faster than real incomes.
2. The distributional - inequality currently set to rise.
Two key things missing in their formal target though:
1. Housing costs - currently rising faster than real incomes.
2. The distributional - inequality currently set to rise.
If Starmer announces a greater focus on household disposable incomes this Thu, that is a good thing and not a moment to soon.
This is the scale of the challenge:
This is the scale of the challenge:
December 3, 2024 at 1:09 PM
If Starmer announces a greater focus on household disposable incomes this Thu, that is a good thing and not a moment to soon.
This is the scale of the challenge:
This is the scale of the challenge:
Inflation out today at 2.3% for October, slightly ahead of the Bank of England's recent projection.
But look which month is used to increase social security payments next April to compensate families for rising prices...
But look which month is used to increase social security payments next April to compensate families for rising prices...
November 20, 2024 at 8:15 AM
Inflation out today at 2.3% for October, slightly ahead of the Bank of England's recent projection.
But look which month is used to increase social security payments next April to compensate families for rising prices...
But look which month is used to increase social security payments next April to compensate families for rising prices...
There is a reasonable possibility that either monetary policy or fiscal policy -- or both -- are too tight.
November 15, 2024 at 11:04 AM
There is a reasonable possibility that either monetary policy or fiscal policy -- or both -- are too tight.
This means relative poverty is also set to rise.
Absent a plan from government, we can now expect 100,000 more children in poverty by Oct 2029, as well as 300,000 more working age adults.
End/
Absent a plan from government, we can now expect 100,000 more children in poverty by Oct 2029, as well as 300,000 more working age adults.
End/
November 14, 2024 at 7:45 PM
This means relative poverty is also set to rise.
Absent a plan from government, we can now expect 100,000 more children in poverty by Oct 2029, as well as 300,000 more working age adults.
End/
Absent a plan from government, we can now expect 100,000 more children in poverty by Oct 2029, as well as 300,000 more working age adults.
End/