Alfie Stirling
@alfie-stirling.bsky.social
Director of Insight & Policy and Chief Economist at JRF | previously NEF & IPPR | "all models are wrong, but some are useful" (G Box)
Pinned
Before the Boil: Addressing the UK's Living Standards Crisis
The UK faces a crisis in living standards. The current outlook for real disposable incomes is unprecedented, including rising inequality and the risk of a first parliament on record where the average...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The latest OBR forecasts suggest the average family may end the current parliament financially worse off than they were at the start.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
Definitive table of what Government decided to spend it's new tax receipts on.
3/5: Reducing debt and borrowing.
2/5: Making people better off.
Of which:
1/5: U-turn on things making people worse off.
1/5: Actually making people better off.
#Budget2025
3/5: Reducing debt and borrowing.
2/5: Making people better off.
Of which:
1/5: U-turn on things making people worse off.
1/5: Actually making people better off.
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Definitive table of what Government decided to spend it's new tax receipts on.
3/5: Reducing debt and borrowing.
2/5: Making people better off.
Of which:
1/5: U-turn on things making people worse off.
1/5: Actually making people better off.
#Budget2025
3/5: Reducing debt and borrowing.
2/5: Making people better off.
Of which:
1/5: U-turn on things making people worse off.
1/5: Actually making people better off.
#Budget2025
Real average weekly earnings have risen by £2 in the past year.
November 11, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Real average weekly earnings have risen by £2 in the past year.
"More wage growth in first 10 months of Labour than in first 10 years of Conservatives" is true only on a technicality, due to Covid.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
September 29, 2025 at 12:40 PM
"More wage growth in first 10 months of Labour than in first 10 years of Conservatives" is true only on a technicality, due to Covid.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly.
That's also what people are feeling.
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
A must-read this morning - JRF's @alfie-stirling.bsky.social on the crisis in UK living standards, and how politicians can (and must) respond
The latest OBR forecasts suggest the average family may end the current parliament financially worse off than they were at the start.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
Before the Boil: Addressing the UK's Living Standards Crisis
The UK faces a crisis in living standards. The current outlook for real disposable incomes is unprecedented, including rising inequality and the risk of a first parliament on record where the average...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 16, 2025 at 8:10 AM
A must-read this morning - JRF's @alfie-stirling.bsky.social on the crisis in UK living standards, and how politicians can (and must) respond
There has been essentially no growth in real wages for 10 months.
September 16, 2025 at 9:07 AM
There has been essentially no growth in real wages for 10 months.
The latest OBR forecasts suggest the average family may end the current parliament financially worse off than they were at the start.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
Before the Boil: Addressing the UK's Living Standards Crisis
The UK faces a crisis in living standards. The current outlook for real disposable incomes is unprecedented, including rising inequality and the risk of a first parliament on record where the average...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 15, 2025 at 1:23 PM
The latest OBR forecasts suggest the average family may end the current parliament financially worse off than they were at the start.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around.
New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 7:18 AM
New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
Two fab economist roles currently going at @jrf-uk.bsky.social, do get in touch if you have any questions!
We're hiring two senior economists 📢
We're looking for people to develop and lead projects looking at the relationship between household economic security and macroeconomic and fiscal policy
You'll:
- devise and deliver analysis
- contribute to policy and ideas work
- be a trusted voice externally
We're looking for people to develop and lead projects looking at the relationship between household economic security and macroeconomic and fiscal policy
You'll:
- devise and deliver analysis
- contribute to policy and ideas work
- be a trusted voice externally
June 2, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Two fab economist roles currently going at @jrf-uk.bsky.social, do get in touch if you have any questions!
How can you tell when a country is over adjusting for financial markets reaction/fiscal rules?
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
April 5, 2025 at 1:11 PM
How can you tell when a country is over adjusting for financial markets reaction/fiscal rules?
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
🗣️ "This is particularly painful for the lowest income families."
Our Director of Insight and Policy, @alfie-stirling.bsky.social
spoke to @news.sky.com this morning about the impacts the range of bill increases coming into effect today will have on people's living standards.
Our Director of Insight and Policy, @alfie-stirling.bsky.social
spoke to @news.sky.com this morning about the impacts the range of bill increases coming into effect today will have on people's living standards.
April 1, 2025 at 10:09 AM
🗣️ "This is particularly painful for the lowest income families."
Our Director of Insight and Policy, @alfie-stirling.bsky.social
spoke to @news.sky.com this morning about the impacts the range of bill increases coming into effect today will have on people's living standards.
Our Director of Insight and Policy, @alfie-stirling.bsky.social
spoke to @news.sky.com this morning about the impacts the range of bill increases coming into effect today will have on people's living standards.
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
March 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes.
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
March 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes.
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
This from the OBR on Real Household Disposable Income is key.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
March 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
This from the OBR on Real Household Disposable Income is key.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets".
And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
The past year could prove the high point of the parliament for living standards.
March 23, 2025 at 7:34 AM
The past year could prove the high point of the parliament for living standards.
In case anyone was wondering, this is what it looks like visually.
March 22, 2025 at 9:12 PM
In case anyone was wondering, this is what it looks like visually.
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
March 22, 2025 at 9:02 PM
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
Much has been made of the pressure on public finances.
Household finances remain the elephant in the room.
If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today.
Thread.
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
Today’s Green Paper contains a welcome acknowledgement that the basic rate of benefits is inadequate. Steps have been announced to increase it, but it’s not quite as good as it seems for 2 reasons….
March 18, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Today’s Green Paper contains a welcome acknowledgement that the basic rate of benefits is inadequate. Steps have been announced to increase it, but it’s not quite as good as it seems for 2 reasons….
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
Not sure about this from the IFS. In the real world, I'm not convinced that changing an incredibly miserly income of £4,732 per year to a still-miserly £5,096 per year is going to persuade people, who would otherwise have got a job, that they're now so financially comfortable, they're not going to.
March 18, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Not sure about this from the IFS. In the real world, I'm not convinced that changing an incredibly miserly income of £4,732 per year to a still-miserly £5,096 per year is going to persuade people, who would otherwise have got a job, that they're now so financially comfortable, they're not going to.
The government has pledged to deliver "higher living standards", move from "treatment to prevention" and from "hospital to community".
Cutting billions from health related social security drives a coach and horses through all three.
Cutting billions from health related social security drives a coach and horses through all three.
March 15, 2025 at 12:01 PM
The government has pledged to deliver "higher living standards", move from "treatment to prevention" and from "hospital to community".
Cutting billions from health related social security drives a coach and horses through all three.
Cutting billions from health related social security drives a coach and horses through all three.
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
Yesterday, a Government press release claimed the number of people “considered too sick to work” had "quadrupled" since the pandemic (a "383% rise"). This is incorrect. In fact, it’s not even close. It's more like 40%.
This thread explains why 🧵1/7
This thread explains why 🧵1/7
March 14, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Yesterday, a Government press release claimed the number of people “considered too sick to work” had "quadrupled" since the pandemic (a "383% rise"). This is incorrect. In fact, it’s not even close. It's more like 40%.
This thread explains why 🧵1/7
This thread explains why 🧵1/7
Turns out "one fiscal event a year" meant spending cuts twice a year, and tax rises once a year.
March 13, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Turns out "one fiscal event a year" meant spending cuts twice a year, and tax rises once a year.
Reposted by Alfie Stirling
Looking ahead to the disability benefits green paper, this essay for @citizensadvice.bsky.social makes the case for a system focused on improving health outcomes.
Co-authors @maddyirose.bsky.social, @victoria-anns.bsky.social & Simon Collerton
We challenge the 5 big falsehoods underpinning cuts…🧵
Co-authors @maddyirose.bsky.social, @victoria-anns.bsky.social & Simon Collerton
We challenge the 5 big falsehoods underpinning cuts…🧵
March 11, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Looking ahead to the disability benefits green paper, this essay for @citizensadvice.bsky.social makes the case for a system focused on improving health outcomes.
Co-authors @maddyirose.bsky.social, @victoria-anns.bsky.social & Simon Collerton
We challenge the 5 big falsehoods underpinning cuts…🧵
Co-authors @maddyirose.bsky.social, @victoria-anns.bsky.social & Simon Collerton
We challenge the 5 big falsehoods underpinning cuts…🧵
The speed at which US-Russia relations have gone from Cold War-esque to Molotov-Ribbentrop-esque is dizzying www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Putin offers Russian and Ukrainian rare minerals to US
The proposal to give the US access to minerals would also include those from territories taken from Ukraine.
www.bbc.co.uk
February 25, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The speed at which US-Russia relations have gone from Cold War-esque to Molotov-Ribbentrop-esque is dizzying www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
NEW
First of three papers in a major study from @nprcoxford.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
TLDR - The credibility of all political parties in tackling household economic insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament.
www.theguardian.com/business/202... 1/
First of three papers in a major study from @nprcoxford.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
TLDR - The credibility of all political parties in tackling household economic insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament.
www.theguardian.com/business/202... 1/
Labour losing support fastest among voters worried over finances, study finds
Poverty charity urges Keir Starmer to focus on living standards instead of culture wars and immigration
www.theguardian.com
February 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
NEW
First of three papers in a major study from @nprcoxford.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
TLDR - The credibility of all political parties in tackling household economic insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament.
www.theguardian.com/business/202... 1/
First of three papers in a major study from @nprcoxford.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
TLDR - The credibility of all political parties in tackling household economic insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament.
www.theguardian.com/business/202... 1/