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metweather
@alexholmes.bsky.social
Definitely keeping an eye on areas in S England: Super diffluent exit of the mid-level jet co-located with a surface trough should favour storms that have the potential to develop rotation. Very strong low level shear will support this risk with associated tornado potential.
January 23, 2025 at 7:05 AM
All this will be pushed into a coastline with plenty of W/SW facing inlets and bays (e.g. Galway Bay). The saving grace may be the fact low tide is currently expected to coincide with peak winds (around 7AM). But probably best to take any sort of flood warnings very seriously.
January 22, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Naturally, uncertainty is quite high with patterns such as these, so forecast is subject to change.
December 29, 2024 at 1:46 PM
Arctic blast seems likely in the US around the 4th of Jan which would take a couple days but charge up the Jet Stream.

Would take pretty robust blocking (18z GFS) to prevent this turning our weather milder/unsettled (6z GFS) so keeping an eye on 7/8th for the end of any cold.
December 29, 2024 at 1:46 PM
So for now, instead of focusing on specific model output, be aware that there is a risk of snow on Jan 1st, currently highest across Northern areas, that is subject to change. Higher confidence will allow details to be confirmed as we approach Wednesday.
December 28, 2024 at 11:47 AM