Wind Forecast:

Unsettled conditions will persist across the S UK & Ireland overnight. However, there exists a region of high interest across S England where there is the potential for a brief spell of strong winds - but large uncertainty remains in where this occurs.

Severe Weather Forecast:

2 main severe weather threats across the S UK during the next 24 hours. Large Uncertainty exists in the Red Zone, but the potential for severe weather is higher here. The blue zone has better confidence but any severe weather will be very hit and miss.

Storm Eowyn Forecast:

A major, generational, weather event is expected across the Republic of Ireland & the UK during tomorrow. Dangerous, hurricane conditions are likely across the Irish West Coast early on, with severe winds spreading into the rest of the UK & Ireland later.

Exceptionally impressive dry air signature with #StormEowyn, denoting descending dry air.

Stratospheric intrusion beginning overnight, & an exceptionally strong one to; ECM has dry stratospheric air basically at the surface.

Model output of 110-130mph somehow seems reasonable.

First time having 3 Capital Cities under a Red Warning from one event?

Definitely keeping an eye on areas in S England: Super diffluent exit of the mid-level jet co-located with a surface trough should favour storms that have the potential to develop rotation. Very strong low level shear will support this risk with associated tornado potential.

Severe Weather Risk: 8am-5pm Today

A band of convection will move East across the Southern UK through today, potentially developing into severe storms. Strong wind gusts, perhaps >60mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

I will try have graphic/maybe a video out tomorrow morning for the tornado/severe weather risk.

But in case I don't manage too - upper level & surface pattern support what could be quite a severe threat with a line of very strongly sheared storms moving with a surface trough.

UKV 15z had a very extreme feature in the Channel on Monday. Not worth getting worried about at this point - small, secondary lows are often very hard to forecast and confidence is currently v low.

Wasn't the only model though - 00z GEM and GFS had similar. Worth watching imo.

Somewhat concerned about the potential for severe coastal flooding/storm surge on the west coast of Ireland on Friday morning.

Pressure <955mb, wind gusts well over 100mph and sustained winds of hurricane force currently being modelled quite consistently.

Storm Eowyn: Forecast Update 1

Storm Eowyn is currently expected to bring exceptionally strong winds to parts of the UK & Ireland, though uncertainty remains on the exact location and strength of the strongest winds. As such, this forecast is more confidence based as opposed to wind gust based.

Arctic blast seems likely in the US around the 4th of Jan which would take a couple days but charge up the Jet Stream.

Would take pretty robust blocking (18z GFS) to prevent this turning our weather milder/unsettled (6z GFS) so keeping an eye on 7/8th for the end of any cold.

Cautiously optimistic on the possibility of *slightly* more prolonged cold into January, driven by renewed blocking across the North Atlantic.

While uncertain, risk is highest across the North with possible mild incursions in the South 4-6th. Significant snow likely on the 1st.

There is an increasing signal for significant snowfall on the northern flank of a (possibly deep) low on New Year's Day.

The main issue atm is the large uncertainty in the position and strength of the low, which determines where in the UK & Ireland sees the snowfall.

A fairly interesting signal starting to emerge on the ECM mean pressure chart for the first week of Jan, with high pressure building across the N Atlantic.

Too early for specifics, but perhaps an increased risk of cold weather in the New Year, especially in the North.

And thanks for 100 followers!

It's worth keeping a fairly close eye on Saturday across the Northern half of Scotland - some models suggesting the potential for very strong winds, others slightly less so but it will be unsettled regardless.

Will have to watch for trends in the models as they will start to converge fairly soon.

2 years ago today - one of my personal favourite snow events, with an impressive (for me) 10cm of snow falling within just a few hours.

Perhaps even more unusual, the snow lasted on the ground for a full 7 days, which had a nice festive feel in the run up to X-Mas! Would be great to have a repeat!