Alex Baguzin
@alexbaguzin.bsky.social
Crunching the numbers behind elite FPL minds 🧠📊 | Get your weekly stats fix as a newsletter 👉 elitethinking.substack.com
GW13 was the #FreeHit gameweek of the season: 57% of elite managers activated it, built the same one-week template, and gained 25 points on casuals.
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
December 2, 2025 at 10:21 AM
GW13 was the #FreeHit gameweek of the season: 57% of elite managers activated it, built the same one-week template, and gained 25 points on casuals.
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
📉 The elite gave Joao Pedro one game too many — then moved on. GW10 was the moment patience broke — unanimously.
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
November 7, 2025 at 9:48 AM
📉 The elite gave Joao Pedro one game too many — then moved on. GW10 was the moment patience broke — unanimously.
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
FPL Review’s GW1 predictions yielded a 75% correlation after 8 weeks — compared to just 42% for player prices. Models beat price hype.
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
October 31, 2025 at 10:48 AM
FPL Review’s GW1 predictions yielded a 75% correlation after 8 weeks — compared to just 42% for player prices. Models beat price hype.
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
The elite took a breather after last week’s wildcard frenzy — 62% rolled their transfer and still outscored casuals by 10. Patience can score FPL points too, it seems.
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
October 17, 2025 at 9:42 AM
The elite took a breather after last week’s wildcard frenzy — 62% rolled their transfer and still outscored casuals by 10. Patience can score FPL points too, it seems.
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Just found a national treasure #AW #ThankYouArsene
October 3, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Just found a national treasure #AW #ThankYouArsene
Wildcards flew and the elite left casuals in the dust — scoring 21 points more on average. The new template is locked in.
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
October 3, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Wildcards flew and the elite left casuals in the dust — scoring 21 points more on average. The new template is locked in.
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
The Great Formation Shift: GW3 saw elites abandon 3-5-2 for 3-4-3 and dump Palmer to power up the forward line.
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
September 12, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The Great Formation Shift: GW3 saw elites abandon 3-5-2 for 3-4-3 and dump Palmer to power up the forward line.
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
In GW2 casuals outscored the elite by 4.5 points on average.
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
August 29, 2025 at 8:44 AM
In GW2 casuals outscored the elite by 4.5 points on average.
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
GW1 in FPL: elite managers target players from clubs with the softest fixtures, while casuals chase big-name teams
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
August 21, 2025 at 8:18 AM
GW1 in FPL: elite managers target players from clubs with the softest fixtures, while casuals chase big-name teams
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Some of the elite will go without both Salah & Haaland - predictive models back that.
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
August 15, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Some of the elite will go without both Salah & Haaland - predictive models back that.
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
The elite don’t pick their GW1 squads like the rest of us.
Past seasons, fixture lists, and predictive models tell us what they’ll actually do this year… and it’s not all Salah & Haaland.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-sq...
#FPL #Fantasy
Past seasons, fixture lists, and predictive models tell us what they’ll actually do this year… and it’s not all Salah & Haaland.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-sq...
#FPL #Fantasy
August 11, 2025 at 9:11 AM
The elite don’t pick their GW1 squads like the rest of us.
Past seasons, fixture lists, and predictive models tell us what they’ll actually do this year… and it’s not all Salah & Haaland.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-sq...
#FPL #Fantasy
Past seasons, fixture lists, and predictive models tell us what they’ll actually do this year… and it’s not all Salah & Haaland.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-sq...
#FPL #Fantasy
🥶 Between GW13 and GW16, Palmer became the template elite captain — repaying the faith with 4 goals and an assist.
The elite know when to stick — and when to gamble.
Full story behind elite's transfer and captaincy choices: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
The elite know when to stick — and when to gamble.
Full story behind elite's transfer and captaincy choices: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
August 7, 2025 at 10:49 AM
🥶 Between GW13 and GW16, Palmer became the template elite captain — repaying the faith with 4 goals and an assist.
The elite know when to stick — and when to gamble.
Full story behind elite's transfer and captaincy choices: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
The elite know when to stick — and when to gamble.
Full story behind elite's transfer and captaincy choices: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
Elite FPL managers don’t take hits lightly.
Only 9% took a paid transfer in any given week last season.
📉 Why? Because more hits lead to a worse final rank.
We broke down how the top gaffers manage their transfers (and what the rest get wrong):
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
Only 9% took a paid transfer in any given week last season.
📉 Why? Because more hits lead to a worse final rank.
We broke down how the top gaffers manage their transfers (and what the rest get wrong):
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
August 4, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Elite FPL managers don’t take hits lightly.
Only 9% took a paid transfer in any given week last season.
📉 Why? Because more hits lead to a worse final rank.
We broke down how the top gaffers manage their transfers (and what the rest get wrong):
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
Only 9% took a paid transfer in any given week last season.
📉 Why? Because more hits lead to a worse final rank.
We broke down how the top gaffers manage their transfers (and what the rest get wrong):
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-transf...
#FPL
Solanke. Hall. Smith-Rowe.
The elite gave new signings a shot in GW1. Then they wildcarded — and most of the new faces were gone.
What else were the elite up to last summer?
Full breakdown in the latest issue: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-new-si...
#FPL #FantasyPL
The elite gave new signings a shot in GW1. Then they wildcarded — and most of the new faces were gone.
What else were the elite up to last summer?
Full breakdown in the latest issue: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-new-si...
#FPL #FantasyPL
July 28, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Solanke. Hall. Smith-Rowe.
The elite gave new signings a shot in GW1. Then they wildcarded — and most of the new faces were gone.
What else were the elite up to last summer?
Full breakdown in the latest issue: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-new-si...
#FPL #FantasyPL
The elite gave new signings a shot in GW1. Then they wildcarded — and most of the new faces were gone.
What else were the elite up to last summer?
Full breakdown in the latest issue: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-new-si...
#FPL #FantasyPL
📊 By GW5 40% of casual managers have already wildcarded. 60% of the elite only did so in GW6.
⚖️ One group reacted to early setbacks. The other waited for fixture swings & clarity on future picks.
We break down how wildcard timing worked for both —> elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
⚖️ One group reacted to early setbacks. The other waited for fixture swings & clarity on future picks.
We break down how wildcard timing worked for both —> elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
July 24, 2025 at 2:34 PM
📊 By GW5 40% of casual managers have already wildcarded. 60% of the elite only did so in GW6.
⚖️ One group reacted to early setbacks. The other waited for fixture swings & clarity on future picks.
We break down how wildcard timing worked for both —> elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
⚖️ One group reacted to early setbacks. The other waited for fixture swings & clarity on future picks.
We break down how wildcard timing worked for both —> elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
🔄 Only four players survived the elite GW6 wildcard: TAA, Rogers, Saka and Haaland.
🚮 Everyone else? Replaced. And for good reason.
We compared GW1 vs GW6 elite squads — and how much has changed in just five weeks —>
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
🚮 Everyone else? Replaced. And for good reason.
We compared GW1 vs GW6 elite squads — and how much has changed in just five weeks —>
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
July 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM
🔄 Only four players survived the elite GW6 wildcard: TAA, Rogers, Saka and Haaland.
🚮 Everyone else? Replaced. And for good reason.
We compared GW1 vs GW6 elite squads — and how much has changed in just five weeks —>
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
🚮 Everyone else? Replaced. And for good reason.
We compared GW1 vs GW6 elite squads — and how much has changed in just five weeks —>
elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-first-...
#FPL
85% of elite FPL managers went 3-4-3 in 24/25 GW1.
Casuals were split between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3.
One side piled money into attack — the other? Midfield.
⚔️ Last season the formation was a battleground ahead of GW1.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-te...
#FPL #Fantasy
Casuals were split between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3.
One side piled money into attack — the other? Midfield.
⚔️ Last season the formation was a battleground ahead of GW1.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-te...
#FPL #Fantasy
July 14, 2025 at 8:57 AM
85% of elite FPL managers went 3-4-3 in 24/25 GW1.
Casuals were split between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3.
One side piled money into attack — the other? Midfield.
⚔️ Last season the formation was a battleground ahead of GW1.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-te...
#FPL #Fantasy
Casuals were split between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3.
One side piled money into attack — the other? Midfield.
⚔️ Last season the formation was a battleground ahead of GW1.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-gw1-te...
#FPL #Fantasy
📊 Triple Captain trends, by the elite:
- 43% Isak (GW32) — 11 pts
- 17% Salah (GW24) — 29 pts
- 13% Haaland (GW9) — 6 pts
Also featuring:
- A vice-captained Semenyo
- A 24-point Trossard bomb
- 2 managers who picked Jacob Murphy
Full breakdown → elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-triple...
#FPL
- 43% Isak (GW32) — 11 pts
- 17% Salah (GW24) — 29 pts
- 13% Haaland (GW9) — 6 pts
Also featuring:
- A vice-captained Semenyo
- A 24-point Trossard bomb
- 2 managers who picked Jacob Murphy
Full breakdown → elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-triple...
#FPL
July 10, 2025 at 8:51 AM
📊 Triple Captain trends, by the elite:
- 43% Isak (GW32) — 11 pts
- 17% Salah (GW24) — 29 pts
- 13% Haaland (GW9) — 6 pts
Also featuring:
- A vice-captained Semenyo
- A 24-point Trossard bomb
- 2 managers who picked Jacob Murphy
Full breakdown → elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-triple...
#FPL
- 43% Isak (GW32) — 11 pts
- 17% Salah (GW24) — 29 pts
- 13% Haaland (GW9) — 6 pts
Also featuring:
- A vice-captained Semenyo
- A 24-point Trossard bomb
- 2 managers who picked Jacob Murphy
Full breakdown → elitethinking.substack.com/p/fpl-triple...
#FPL
📊 Elite FPL managers didn’t guess their captains. They strategized.
In 2024/25, they earned 76 more points than casuals from captaincy calls.
Why? They took fewer punts, followed the data, and switched things up based on schedule.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
In 2024/25, they earned 76 more points than casuals from captaincy calls.
Why? They took fewer punts, followed the data, and switched things up based on schedule.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
July 7, 2025 at 9:26 AM
📊 Elite FPL managers didn’t guess their captains. They strategized.
In 2024/25, they earned 76 more points than casuals from captaincy calls.
Why? They took fewer punts, followed the data, and switched things up based on schedule.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
In 2024/25, they earned 76 more points than casuals from captaincy calls.
Why? They took fewer punts, followed the data, and switched things up based on schedule.
Full breakdown: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Does team value actually matter in FPL? It does — if you’re playing the elite way.
By GW24, elite squads were worth £2.7M more than casuals’ — and that gap showed in the final standings 📈
Full breakdown 👇
elitethinking.substack.com/p/how-do-eli...
#FPL #SeasonRecap
By GW24, elite squads were worth £2.7M more than casuals’ — and that gap showed in the final standings 📈
Full breakdown 👇
elitethinking.substack.com/p/how-do-eli...
#FPL #SeasonRecap
July 4, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Does team value actually matter in FPL? It does — if you’re playing the elite way.
By GW24, elite squads were worth £2.7M more than casuals’ — and that gap showed in the final standings 📈
Full breakdown 👇
elitethinking.substack.com/p/how-do-eli...
#FPL #SeasonRecap
By GW24, elite squads were worth £2.7M more than casuals’ — and that gap showed in the final standings 📈
Full breakdown 👇
elitethinking.substack.com/p/how-do-eli...
#FPL #SeasonRecap
January 17, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Stumbled upon a really delightful email today. Bobonos - a clothing brand - did a heck of a job for Groundhog Day.
Promoting their winter and spring collections in one neat move. In a light-hearted and relatable way.
Promoting their winter and spring collections in one neat move. In a light-hearted and relatable way.
December 26, 2024 at 5:16 PM
Stumbled upon a really delightful email today. Bobonos - a clothing brand - did a heck of a job for Groundhog Day.
Promoting their winter and spring collections in one neat move. In a light-hearted and relatable way.
Promoting their winter and spring collections in one neat move. In a light-hearted and relatable way.