Alex Baguzin
@alexbaguzin.bsky.social
Crunching the numbers behind elite FPL minds 🧠📊 | Get your weekly stats fix as a newsletter 👉 elitethinking.substack.com
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Alex Baguzin
@alexbaguzin.bsky.social
· Jun 30
elithethinking.substack.com
💡 Welcome to Elite Thinking — the newsletter where I crunch the numbers behind the top #FPL minds.
Tag along for:
🧠 Weekly insights
🎯 Captaincy trends, chip usage, transfer habits
⚔️ Elite vs casuals comparisons
➡️ elithethinking.substack.com
Knock that pesky mini-league rival off his perch.
Tag along for:
🧠 Weekly insights
🎯 Captaincy trends, chip usage, transfer habits
⚔️ Elite vs casuals comparisons
➡️ elithethinking.substack.com
Knock that pesky mini-league rival off his perch.
GW13 was the #FreeHit gameweek of the season: 57% of elite managers activated it, built the same one-week template, and gained 25 points on casuals.
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
December 2, 2025 at 10:21 AM
GW13 was the #FreeHit gameweek of the season: 57% of elite managers activated it, built the same one-week template, and gained 25 points on casuals.
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
Full breakdown — the chip breakdown, the standout picks, and why the elite moved as one:
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW13
The elite finally gave up on 3 up front — and rebuilt their teams around a 5-man midfield.
GW11 wasn’t about points. It was about structure. Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW11
GW11 wasn’t about points. It was about structure. Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW11
November 21, 2025 at 10:32 AM
The elite finally gave up on 3 up front — and rebuilt their teams around a 5-man midfield.
GW11 wasn’t about points. It was about structure. Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW11
GW11 wasn’t about points. It was about structure. Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW11
📉 The elite gave Joao Pedro one game too many — then moved on. GW10 was the moment patience broke — unanimously.
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
November 7, 2025 at 9:48 AM
📉 The elite gave Joao Pedro one game too many — then moved on. GW10 was the moment patience broke — unanimously.
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
Full story in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW10
FPL Review’s GW1 predictions yielded a 75% correlation after 8 weeks — compared to just 42% for player prices. Models beat price hype.
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
October 31, 2025 at 10:48 AM
FPL Review’s GW1 predictions yielded a 75% correlation after 8 weeks — compared to just 42% for player prices. Models beat price hype.
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
See who over- and underachieved in this week’s Elite Thinking: Flat White edition ->
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW9
The elite’s patience broke once again. 13.5% played the Wildcard in GW8 — the second-biggest spike this season — swapping Bruno and Gyökeres for Saka and Woltemade.
Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
October 24, 2025 at 9:37 AM
The elite’s patience broke once again. 13.5% played the Wildcard in GW8 — the second-biggest spike this season — swapping Bruno and Gyökeres for Saka and Woltemade.
Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
The elite took a breather after last week’s wildcard frenzy — 62% rolled their transfer and still outscored casuals by 10. Patience can score FPL points too, it seems.
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
October 17, 2025 at 9:42 AM
The elite took a breather after last week’s wildcard frenzy — 62% rolled their transfer and still outscored casuals by 10. Patience can score FPL points too, it seems.
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Read the full breakdown in this week’s Elite Thinking ↓
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Just found a national treasure #AW #ThankYouArsene
October 3, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Just found a national treasure #AW #ThankYouArsene
Wildcards flew and the elite left casuals in the dust — scoring 21 points more on average. The new template is locked in.
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
October 3, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Wildcards flew and the elite left casuals in the dust — scoring 21 points more on average. The new template is locked in.
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis of #GW6 in latest issue 👉
elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
I can’t remember the last time I enjoyed an Arsenal win that much. Ok, Real Madrid at home, but you know what I mean.
Huge effort to come back and win it. Fuck Newcastle and their fans
Huge effort to come back and win it. Fuck Newcastle and their fans
September 28, 2025 at 9:26 PM
I can’t remember the last time I enjoyed an Arsenal win that much. Ok, Real Madrid at home, but you know what I mean.
Huge effort to come back and win it. Fuck Newcastle and their fans
Huge effort to come back and win it. Fuck Newcastle and their fans
The more I watch, the more I come to the conclusion that Gyokeres isn’t:
1) quick enough to run in behind
2) strong enough to hold up the ball
3) skilled enough to work the channels
In short, just not exceptional in any aspect. I do hope we carve out a role for him. So far we haven’t
1) quick enough to run in behind
2) strong enough to hold up the ball
3) skilled enough to work the channels
In short, just not exceptional in any aspect. I do hope we carve out a role for him. So far we haven’t
September 28, 2025 at 4:52 PM
The more I watch, the more I come to the conclusion that Gyokeres isn’t:
1) quick enough to run in behind
2) strong enough to hold up the ball
3) skilled enough to work the channels
In short, just not exceptional in any aspect. I do hope we carve out a role for him. So far we haven’t
1) quick enough to run in behind
2) strong enough to hold up the ball
3) skilled enough to work the channels
In short, just not exceptional in any aspect. I do hope we carve out a role for him. So far we haven’t
I’m going to be in the absolute minority here, but it did look like both Gyokeres and Gabriel dived. Didn’t see enough contact (if it all) for the penalty - and not much of push from Woltemade either.
Still stings, we are by far the better side
Still stings, we are by far the better side
September 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
I’m going to be in the absolute minority here, but it did look like both Gyokeres and Gabriel dived. Didn’t see enough contact (if it all) for the penalty - and not much of push from Woltemade either.
Still stings, we are by far the better side
Still stings, we are by far the better side
After all the shit Liverpool pulled off in the first five games: red cards, late pens, etc. losing in stoppage time is simply poetic
September 27, 2025 at 6:48 PM
After all the shit Liverpool pulled off in the first five games: red cards, late pens, etc. losing in stoppage time is simply poetic
Cracks are starting to show in elite’s FPL patience: 10% played the wildcard in GW4, Palace picks surged, as some template managers shuffled their squads.
Who held onto their wildcard? Did the casuals outsmart the elite? Full issue 👉https://elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-gw4
#FPL #GW4
Who held onto their wildcard? Did the casuals outsmart the elite? Full issue 👉https://elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-gw4
#FPL #GW4
September 19, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Hope I don’t jinx it - but Mosquera has been phenomenal. I barely noticed Saliba’s absence.
I hope he gets game time, hard as it is to displace Saliba or Gabriel
I hope he gets game time, hard as it is to displace Saliba or Gabriel
September 16, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Hope I don’t jinx it - but Mosquera has been phenomenal. I barely noticed Saliba’s absence.
I hope he gets game time, hard as it is to displace Saliba or Gabriel
I hope he gets game time, hard as it is to displace Saliba or Gabriel
I’m astonished by how much players are allowed to use their hands when man-marking nowadays.
Makes the game much messier, there’s no holding someone off with sheer body strength - they’ll just use their hands. Unless you’re Haaland
Makes the game much messier, there’s no holding someone off with sheer body strength - they’ll just use their hands. Unless you’re Haaland
September 16, 2025 at 5:37 PM
I’m astonished by how much players are allowed to use their hands when man-marking nowadays.
Makes the game much messier, there’s no holding someone off with sheer body strength - they’ll just use their hands. Unless you’re Haaland
Makes the game much messier, there’s no holding someone off with sheer body strength - they’ll just use their hands. Unless you’re Haaland
Jesus Christ, that guy went through Ode with a straight leg, nowhere near the ball. Not even a foul?!
September 13, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Jesus Christ, that guy went through Ode with a straight leg, nowhere near the ball. Not even a foul?!
The Great Formation Shift: GW3 saw elites abandon 3-5-2 for 3-4-3 and dump Palmer to power up the forward line.
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
September 12, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The Great Formation Shift: GW3 saw elites abandon 3-5-2 for 3-4-3 and dump Palmer to power up the forward line.
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
Casuals are still clinging to Haaland — and burning chips. Full breakdown 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW3
My only real regret is that we never seemed to exploit Liverpool’s right wing - they don’t have a proper RB there.
Perhaps Eze should have started today. Made an impact when he came on
Perhaps Eze should have started today. Made an impact when he came on
August 31, 2025 at 5:56 PM
My only real regret is that we never seemed to exploit Liverpool’s right wing - they don’t have a proper RB there.
Perhaps Eze should have started today. Made an impact when he came on
Perhaps Eze should have started today. Made an impact when he came on
In GW2 casuals outscored the elite by 4.5 points on average.
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
August 29, 2025 at 8:44 AM
In GW2 casuals outscored the elite by 4.5 points on average.
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
Rolling the FT might have cost the elite this time - but they are playing the long game.
Full dive 👉 elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL #GW2
If both Saka and Øde are out for long, we’re in trouble. And not simply because we’ll miss their quality (which we will).
We’ll have a completely new attacking configuration. Madueke right, Gyok central, Eze left + Havertz/Nwaneri at 10.
Three new signings + player with limited experience at 10
We’ll have a completely new attacking configuration. Madueke right, Gyok central, Eze left + Havertz/Nwaneri at 10.
Three new signings + player with limited experience at 10
August 23, 2025 at 10:05 PM
If both Saka and Øde are out for long, we’re in trouble. And not simply because we’ll miss their quality (which we will).
We’ll have a completely new attacking configuration. Madueke right, Gyok central, Eze left + Havertz/Nwaneri at 10.
Three new signings + player with limited experience at 10
We’ll have a completely new attacking configuration. Madueke right, Gyok central, Eze left + Havertz/Nwaneri at 10.
Three new signings + player with limited experience at 10
Eze also joins? That’s both Trossard and Martinelli gone then.
P.S. I really hope Gabi can still stay and fight. At one point he was regarded just as highly as Saka
P.S. I really hope Gabi can still stay and fight. At one point he was regarded just as highly as Saka
August 21, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Eze also joins? That’s both Trossard and Martinelli gone then.
P.S. I really hope Gabi can still stay and fight. At one point he was regarded just as highly as Saka
P.S. I really hope Gabi can still stay and fight. At one point he was regarded just as highly as Saka
GW1 in FPL: elite managers target players from clubs with the softest fixtures, while casuals chase big-name teams
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
August 21, 2025 at 8:18 AM
GW1 in FPL: elite managers target players from clubs with the softest fixtures, while casuals chase big-name teams
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
Full analysis: elitethinking.substack.com/p/elite-fpl-...
#FPL
I only watched the first 30-35 minutes, but my overall take - not tied to result or performance - is simple.
It’s GW1, away to Man United. Only place I dread more is Anfield. We got it out of the way with three points.
If we were shit, we’ll improve. It’s basically still pre-season fitness-wise
It’s GW1, away to Man United. Only place I dread more is Anfield. We got it out of the way with three points.
If we were shit, we’ll improve. It’s basically still pre-season fitness-wise
August 17, 2025 at 7:38 PM
I only watched the first 30-35 minutes, but my overall take - not tied to result or performance - is simple.
It’s GW1, away to Man United. Only place I dread more is Anfield. We got it out of the way with three points.
If we were shit, we’ll improve. It’s basically still pre-season fitness-wise
It’s GW1, away to Man United. Only place I dread more is Anfield. We got it out of the way with three points.
If we were shit, we’ll improve. It’s basically still pre-season fitness-wise
Some of the elite will go without both Salah & Haaland - predictive models back that.
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
August 15, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Some of the elite will go without both Salah & Haaland - predictive models back that.
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL
Why?
- Both have tricky early fixtures
- Cheaper forwards project almost as many points
- Palmer + Bruno free up cash
Full breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/elitethi...
Tempted to go premium-free in GW1?
#FPL