Jamie Allard is horrible, obviously, but this is a VERY popular strain of anti-indigenous conservatism — and lots of liberals are a part of it too.

Crazy that we could hold MI + GA, flip ME, NC, *and* TX, and we’d STILL be short 1 seat 😭

Vance is the weakest Republican legislator in Alaska, hands down. She underperforms the top of ticket in almost every cycle.

2020: Trump +15.5, Vance +9
2022: Dunleavy/Pierce +10, Vance +8
2024: Trump +16, Vance +4.5

Just coasting by on luck in a Trump +16 seat.

Despite Johnsons impressive performance, why'd he lose?

Homer is pretty liberal, but its working class and low turnout — Biden +11 to Harris +6. It's also just over 50% of the votes. The northern half is much older, rural, religious, and low college ed. Very tough seat.

Meanwhile, Brent Johnson put up an incredible performance in Kasilof — a working class fishing community that voted for Trump by 40 points. Johnson lost it by just 18, the best Dem or Indie performance in Kasilof since LBJ.

Regional advantages play a strong role in the Southern Kenai Peninsula, which is made up of a collection of fishing towns surrounding the larger Homer area.

Republican Dawson Slaughter took 9% of the vote by getting 23% in his hometown of Anchor Point.

Nov 2022:

1st round - Begich/Palin +24
Final: Begich/Palin +4

Nov 2024:

1st round - Begich +10
Final - ?

Peltola did better in 1st round results this time than 2022. She lost it by 14 in 2022 (+2 after RCV, but exhaustion distorts those margins) but +10 this time. Not sure of the after RCV margin in 2024.

The rest of the top 10 R 2012-2024 shifts are in rural Alaska, — particularly driven by Native-plurality or majority communities in Alaska (2, 37-40). The majority white rural Mat-Su (29-30) and Southwest Interior communities (36) have much smaller shifts.

In the Top 10 R shifts since 2012, just one district from Anchorage makes the cut: HD19, Mountainview and Airport Heights. These are the most diverse and working class census tracts in the country.

Mountainview alone was Obama +35 (2012) to Harris +18.

trump has basically 1-3 actual convictions. things he doesn't just say to pander and sell shit.

this is one of them. him, and many many voters, think this because it sounds smart

Trumpers would say that these prices would never get paid because this is all one big strategy to get canada/mexico/china to agree to better trade deals.

yeah, no. that's not how this works. he tried this once, it didn't work. now he'll try again but it'll be much worse.

This is despite losing both Cliff Groh (D, flip) and Dan Ortiz (I, retired). Dems convinced 2 R’s to join the coalition. The breakdown:

14D’s
5 I’s
2 R’s

R’s Stutes and Kopp and Independent Edgmon are top leadership, while at least 1 Democrat chairs every single committee.