Robert
@alaskanrobby.bsky.social
posting about data and politics from the Bad Place (Alaska)
Dunleavy Republicans wrote an amendment expanding corporal punishment in Alaska's schools. Here's MAGA Rep. Jamie Allard's surprisingly great speech against it.
"I was a child of the 70's. They whipped us. If I saw one of those teachers, I might run them over with a bus!"
"I was a child of the 70's. They whipped us. If I saw one of those teachers, I might run them over with a bus!"
March 17, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Dunleavy Republicans wrote an amendment expanding corporal punishment in Alaska's schools. Here's MAGA Rep. Jamie Allard's surprisingly great speech against it.
"I was a child of the 70's. They whipped us. If I saw one of those teachers, I might run them over with a bus!"
"I was a child of the 70's. They whipped us. If I saw one of those teachers, I might run them over with a bus!"
I could write a book about how white people are addicted to tokenizing conservative indigenous voices to entrench anti-indigenous sentiments. these are the (mostly white) Alaskans who refuse to say Utqiaġvik instead of Barrow and who look down on Native communities struggling with abuse/poverty.
January 31, 2025 at 5:05 PM
I could write a book about how white people are addicted to tokenizing conservative indigenous voices to entrench anti-indigenous sentiments. these are the (mostly white) Alaskans who refuse to say Utqiaġvik instead of Barrow and who look down on Native communities struggling with abuse/poverty.
Fun fact: Alaska Republicans have not controlled all 3 branches in the state since *2014*. This year is also the first time since we were a blue state that R’s are out of power in BOTH branches.
(this map by @statisticurban.bsky.social shows control of state gov after November)
(this map by @statisticurban.bsky.social shows control of state gov after November)
January 3, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Fun fact: Alaska Republicans have not controlled all 3 branches in the state since *2014*. This year is also the first time since we were a blue state that R’s are out of power in BOTH branches.
(this map by @statisticurban.bsky.social shows control of state gov after November)
(this map by @statisticurban.bsky.social shows control of state gov after November)
Meanwhile, Brent Johnson put up an incredible performance in Kasilof — a working class fishing community that voted for Trump by 40 points. Johnson lost it by just 18, the best Dem or Indie performance in Kasilof since LBJ.
December 12, 2024 at 1:07 AM
Meanwhile, Brent Johnson put up an incredible performance in Kasilof — a working class fishing community that voted for Trump by 40 points. Johnson lost it by just 18, the best Dem or Indie performance in Kasilof since LBJ.
Regional advantages play a strong role in the Southern Kenai Peninsula, which is made up of a collection of fishing towns surrounding the larger Homer area.
Republican Dawson Slaughter took 9% of the vote by getting 23% in his hometown of Anchor Point.
Republican Dawson Slaughter took 9% of the vote by getting 23% in his hometown of Anchor Point.
December 12, 2024 at 1:07 AM
Regional advantages play a strong role in the Southern Kenai Peninsula, which is made up of a collection of fishing towns surrounding the larger Homer area.
Republican Dawson Slaughter took 9% of the vote by getting 23% in his hometown of Anchor Point.
Republican Dawson Slaughter took 9% of the vote by getting 23% in his hometown of Anchor Point.
Rep. Sarah Vance won re-election with the lowest margin of victory in her career. Independent Brent Johnson was one of few Dem-backed candidates to outrun both Harris AND Peltola.
My hometown of Homer went hard for Brent, but low Dem turnout sunk his chances.
My hometown of Homer went hard for Brent, but low Dem turnout sunk his chances.
December 12, 2024 at 1:07 AM
Rep. Sarah Vance won re-election with the lowest margin of victory in her career. Independent Brent Johnson was one of few Dem-backed candidates to outrun both Harris AND Peltola.
My hometown of Homer went hard for Brent, but low Dem turnout sunk his chances.
My hometown of Homer went hard for Brent, but low Dem turnout sunk his chances.
This is missing a lot of data since I’m constantly streaming music on YouTube, but this is definitely a fair representation of my year in music lmao
December 5, 2024 at 8:00 AM
This is missing a lot of data since I’m constantly streaming music on YouTube, but this is definitely a fair representation of my year in music lmao
i think what's so daunting to liberals about trump's comeback is that the shift was so widespread. brain breaking margins for R's in cities D's normally dominate in.
the actual *margin* trump will win by is very, very small. it's just that his coalition was so *efficient*
the actual *margin* trump will win by is very, very small. it's just that his coalition was so *efficient*
November 29, 2024 at 12:22 AM
i think what's so daunting to liberals about trump's comeback is that the shift was so widespread. brain breaking margins for R's in cities D's normally dominate in.
the actual *margin* trump will win by is very, very small. it's just that his coalition was so *efficient*
the actual *margin* trump will win by is very, very small. it's just that his coalition was so *efficient*
The rest of the top 10 R 2012-2024 shifts are in rural Alaska, — particularly driven by Native-plurality or majority communities in Alaska (2, 37-40). The majority white rural Mat-Su (29-30) and Southwest Interior communities (36) have much smaller shifts.
November 28, 2024 at 3:16 AM
The rest of the top 10 R 2012-2024 shifts are in rural Alaska, — particularly driven by Native-plurality or majority communities in Alaska (2, 37-40). The majority white rural Mat-Su (29-30) and Southwest Interior communities (36) have much smaller shifts.
In the Top 10 R shifts since 2012, just one district from Anchorage makes the cut: HD19, Mountainview and Airport Heights. These are the most diverse and working class census tracts in the country.
Mountainview alone was Obama +35 (2012) to Harris +18.
Mountainview alone was Obama +35 (2012) to Harris +18.
November 28, 2024 at 3:16 AM
In the Top 10 R shifts since 2012, just one district from Anchorage makes the cut: HD19, Mountainview and Airport Heights. These are the most diverse and working class census tracts in the country.
Mountainview alone was Obama +35 (2012) to Harris +18.
Mountainview alone was Obama +35 (2012) to Harris +18.
Of Alaska's 40 House Districts, the top 10 shifts to the left from 2012-2024 are ALL in Anchorage — every single one being from the suburbs.
Jamie Allard (HD23), the most extreme MAGA R in the Legislature, sits in a Romney +37➡️Trump +19 seat.
Peltola came within 10 points of winning it.
Jamie Allard (HD23), the most extreme MAGA R in the Legislature, sits in a Romney +37➡️Trump +19 seat.
Peltola came within 10 points of winning it.
November 28, 2024 at 3:16 AM
Of Alaska's 40 House Districts, the top 10 shifts to the left from 2012-2024 are ALL in Anchorage — every single one being from the suburbs.
Jamie Allard (HD23), the most extreme MAGA R in the Legislature, sits in a Romney +37➡️Trump +19 seat.
Peltola came within 10 points of winning it.
Jamie Allard (HD23), the most extreme MAGA R in the Legislature, sits in a Romney +37➡️Trump +19 seat.
Peltola came within 10 points of winning it.
Trumpers would say that these prices would never get paid because this is all one big strategy to get canada/mexico/china to agree to better trade deals.
yeah, no. that's not how this works. he tried this once, it didn't work. now he'll try again but it'll be much worse.
yeah, no. that's not how this works. he tried this once, it didn't work. now he'll try again but it'll be much worse.
November 26, 2024 at 2:20 AM
Trumpers would say that these prices would never get paid because this is all one big strategy to get canada/mexico/china to agree to better trade deals.
yeah, no. that's not how this works. he tried this once, it didn't work. now he'll try again but it'll be much worse.
yeah, no. that's not how this works. he tried this once, it didn't work. now he'll try again but it'll be much worse.
This is despite losing both Cliff Groh (D, flip) and Dan Ortiz (I, retired). Dems convinced 2 R’s to join the coalition. The breakdown:
14D’s
5 I’s
2 R’s
R’s Stutes and Kopp and Independent Edgmon are top leadership, while at least 1 Democrat chairs every single committee.
14D’s
5 I’s
2 R’s
R’s Stutes and Kopp and Independent Edgmon are top leadership, while at least 1 Democrat chairs every single committee.
November 25, 2024 at 4:42 AM
This is despite losing both Cliff Groh (D, flip) and Dan Ortiz (I, retired). Dems convinced 2 R’s to join the coalition. The breakdown:
14D’s
5 I’s
2 R’s
R’s Stutes and Kopp and Independent Edgmon are top leadership, while at least 1 Democrat chairs every single committee.
14D’s
5 I’s
2 R’s
R’s Stutes and Kopp and Independent Edgmon are top leadership, while at least 1 Democrat chairs every single committee.
Great write up on how Ballot Measure 2's vote correlated pretty strongly with Native-majority precincts — home to some of the highest rates of Independent registration in the state.
When we say "Alaska is so independent", we mostly mean rural and non-white voters.
When we say "Alaska is so independent", we mostly mean rural and non-white voters.
November 23, 2024 at 8:20 AM
Great write up on how Ballot Measure 2's vote correlated pretty strongly with Native-majority precincts — home to some of the highest rates of Independent registration in the state.
When we say "Alaska is so independent", we mostly mean rural and non-white voters.
When we say "Alaska is so independent", we mostly mean rural and non-white voters.
sometimes I forget dan sullivan exists and he’s literally my senator
November 22, 2024 at 9:48 PM
sometimes I forget dan sullivan exists and he’s literally my senator
BREAKING: Ballot Measure 2, a Republican-led effort to repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska, is now FAILING by 192 votes.
November 19, 2024 at 12:23 AM
BREAKING: Ballot Measure 2, a Republican-led effort to repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska, is now FAILING by 192 votes.
Not terribly surprising, but the 1st choice votes of conservative-leaning presidential candidates were most supportive of the RCV repeal in Alaska.
76%of 1st choice Trump votes voted Yes on the Repeal. In comparison, just 12-13% of Harris/Stein/West voters voted Yes.
Data: @cinyc9 from Twitter
76%of 1st choice Trump votes voted Yes on the Repeal. In comparison, just 12-13% of Harris/Stein/West voters voted Yes.
Data: @cinyc9 from Twitter
November 19, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Not terribly surprising, but the 1st choice votes of conservative-leaning presidential candidates were most supportive of the RCV repeal in Alaska.
76%of 1st choice Trump votes voted Yes on the Repeal. In comparison, just 12-13% of Harris/Stein/West voters voted Yes.
Data: @cinyc9 from Twitter
76%of 1st choice Trump votes voted Yes on the Repeal. In comparison, just 12-13% of Harris/Stein/West voters voted Yes.
Data: @cinyc9 from Twitter
lots of Howe’s voters didn’t rank a second, but those that did are breaking for Begich. This race is over.
November 17, 2024 at 7:35 AM
lots of Howe’s voters didn’t rank a second, but those that did are breaking for Begich. This race is over.
Nationwide, there was a leftward shift of about 6 points in late-arriving absentees and early votes. I thought that shift had hit it's ceiling in Alaska — apparently not.
Turns out my OG prediction (narrowly failing) might happen. Should have trusted my gut, but its been a weird election!
Turns out my OG prediction (narrowly failing) might happen. Should have trusted my gut, but its been a weird election!
November 17, 2024 at 5:55 AM
Nationwide, there was a leftward shift of about 6 points in late-arriving absentees and early votes. I thought that shift had hit it's ceiling in Alaska — apparently not.
Turns out my OG prediction (narrowly failing) might happen. Should have trusted my gut, but its been a weird election!
Turns out my OG prediction (narrowly failing) might happen. Should have trusted my gut, but its been a weird election!
According to the division, they will count less than half of the outstanding ballots tonight.
I typically defend the division, but this pace is indefensible. Competing with California for who counts ballots slower is not the vibe.
I typically defend the division, but this pace is indefensible. Competing with California for who counts ballots slower is not the vibe.
November 16, 2024 at 1:08 AM
According to the division, they will count less than half of the outstanding ballots tonight.
I typically defend the division, but this pace is indefensible. Competing with California for who counts ballots slower is not the vibe.
I typically defend the division, but this pace is indefensible. Competing with California for who counts ballots slower is not the vibe.
There's roughly 30,000 votes left to count in Alaska. The effort to repeal RCV is up just 2,400 votes. Here's a map of the outstanding absentee/early votes.
Nearly 70% of the remaining vote is from Anchorage, Southeast, the Bush, and Kodiak — all places the No side is leading.
Nearly 70% of the remaining vote is from Anchorage, Southeast, the Bush, and Kodiak — all places the No side is leading.
November 15, 2024 at 5:55 AM
There's roughly 30,000 votes left to count in Alaska. The effort to repeal RCV is up just 2,400 votes. Here's a map of the outstanding absentee/early votes.
Nearly 70% of the remaining vote is from Anchorage, Southeast, the Bush, and Kodiak — all places the No side is leading.
Nearly 70% of the remaining vote is from Anchorage, Southeast, the Bush, and Kodiak — all places the No side is leading.
I used to be skeptical of the whole "Jill Stein and the Greens are grifters who don't care about power" argument.
Then we passed open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska.
And Greens didn't field a single. fucking. candidate. Not one candidate. Not even for Congress.
Then we passed open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska.
And Greens didn't field a single. fucking. candidate. Not one candidate. Not even for Congress.
November 14, 2024 at 7:19 AM
I used to be skeptical of the whole "Jill Stein and the Greens are grifters who don't care about power" argument.
Then we passed open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska.
And Greens didn't field a single. fucking. candidate. Not one candidate. Not even for Congress.
Then we passed open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska.
And Greens didn't field a single. fucking. candidate. Not one candidate. Not even for Congress.
Dahltstrom will run as the "moderate" option, but remember that she got her start in politics by primarying then-State Rep Lisa Murkowski from the right.
She'll probably do better than Begich, but with two R's in the race there's no chance.
She'll probably do better than Begich, but with two R's in the race there's no chance.
November 15, 2023 at 11:44 AM
Dahltstrom will run as the "moderate" option, but remember that she got her start in politics by primarying then-State Rep Lisa Murkowski from the right.
She'll probably do better than Begich, but with two R's in the race there's no chance.
She'll probably do better than Begich, but with two R's in the race there's no chance.
This is true all over Alaska — minus Juneau.
Look at my hometown of Homer, home of Rep. Sarah Vance's HD6.
The Homer area is 52% of the district's voting pop, but it cast 48% of the votes in 2022.
Republicans win because outside of Homer, the district is high-turnout/blood red.
⬇️2020 Pres)⬇️
Look at my hometown of Homer, home of Rep. Sarah Vance's HD6.
The Homer area is 52% of the district's voting pop, but it cast 48% of the votes in 2022.
Republicans win because outside of Homer, the district is high-turnout/blood red.
⬇️2020 Pres)⬇️
September 8, 2023 at 11:24 AM
This is true all over Alaska — minus Juneau.
Look at my hometown of Homer, home of Rep. Sarah Vance's HD6.
The Homer area is 52% of the district's voting pop, but it cast 48% of the votes in 2022.
Republicans win because outside of Homer, the district is high-turnout/blood red.
⬇️2020 Pres)⬇️
Look at my hometown of Homer, home of Rep. Sarah Vance's HD6.
The Homer area is 52% of the district's voting pop, but it cast 48% of the votes in 2022.
Republicans win because outside of Homer, the district is high-turnout/blood red.
⬇️2020 Pres)⬇️
Like other states with decent trends for Democrats, Alaska has a turnout problem in its downtown cores. Nowhere is that truer than Fairbanks.
The city is 34% of the North Star Borough's voting age population, but because of bad turnout it cast just 25% of the total votes in 2020.
The city is 34% of the North Star Borough's voting age population, but because of bad turnout it cast just 25% of the total votes in 2020.
September 8, 2023 at 11:20 AM
Like other states with decent trends for Democrats, Alaska has a turnout problem in its downtown cores. Nowhere is that truer than Fairbanks.
The city is 34% of the North Star Borough's voting age population, but because of bad turnout it cast just 25% of the total votes in 2020.
The city is 34% of the North Star Borough's voting age population, but because of bad turnout it cast just 25% of the total votes in 2020.