Adam Brown
@adamlbrown.bsky.social
Economist, formerly a physicist. Head of UK Economic Policy & Modelling at Cambridge Econometrics. Visiting Researcher in Innovation Systems at Oxford Brookes. Also interested in cricket, baseball and metal. Displaced Salopian. Vmo
Ever taken a greyhound?
November 11, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Ever taken a greyhound?
Its preferable that americans mistakenly prefer their economic system to those of the UK and Europe. Forget about silly ideas about QOL guys, you gotta keep working and consuming, those share prices won't pump themselves!
November 11, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Its preferable that americans mistakenly prefer their economic system to those of the UK and Europe. Forget about silly ideas about QOL guys, you gotta keep working and consuming, those share prices won't pump themselves!
Then the long-run policy solution that best stabilises the debt/GDP trajectory is increasing government spending on health, care, education, skills, outreach, to help those people back into economic activity.
November 11, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Then the long-run policy solution that best stabilises the debt/GDP trajectory is increasing government spending on health, care, education, skills, outreach, to help those people back into economic activity.
TBH I've been incredibly successful at avoiding him since I quit twitter, but I hear he's gone full MAGA. He was always the epitome of a particular type of US tech bro who thought of themselves as liberal and cosmopolitan but were actually some of the most reactionary and ignorant people on earth
November 11, 2025 at 2:46 PM
TBH I've been incredibly successful at avoiding him since I quit twitter, but I hear he's gone full MAGA. He was always the epitome of a particular type of US tech bro who thought of themselves as liberal and cosmopolitan but were actually some of the most reactionary and ignorant people on earth
Getting immediate feedback on your semi-expert opinions from actual experts presents a choice: do you stay humble, listen and learn, or do you insulate yourself and double down? - many people jump the wrong way. Smith probably the prime example of this
November 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Getting immediate feedback on your semi-expert opinions from actual experts presents a choice: do you stay humble, listen and learn, or do you insulate yourself and double down? - many people jump the wrong way. Smith probably the prime example of this
I don't think you know what structural means
November 11, 2025 at 2:17 PM
I don't think you know what structural means
Policies intended to drive down employment in order to create non-inflationary headroom for government investment are not structural!
November 11, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Policies intended to drive down employment in order to create non-inflationary headroom for government investment are not structural!
But then if you run the full scenario analysis, the optimum policy pathway outcome would be one with higher government spending and employment than in yesterday's counterfactual that had higher employment, inflation and borrowing costs.
November 11, 2025 at 12:50 PM
But then if you run the full scenario analysis, the optimum policy pathway outcome would be one with higher government spending and employment than in yesterday's counterfactual that had higher employment, inflation and borrowing costs.
More generally: bsky.app/profile/adam...
Thirdly, we found a misalignment between the technologies that received most investment and those with the highest potential to drive social welfare. This should be addressed specifically.
November 11, 2025 at 12:46 PM
More generally: bsky.app/profile/adam...
Wrt climate change specifically, are oil companies and airlines forced to fully internalise the environmental costs of their emissions?
November 11, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Wrt climate change specifically, are oil companies and airlines forced to fully internalise the environmental costs of their emissions?
2 separate issues: whether regulations are in place that would successfully align the incentives experienced by competitive markets with socially optimum outcomes, and whether markets are competitive in the first place. (not really, and clearly no)
November 11, 2025 at 12:39 PM
2 separate issues: whether regulations are in place that would successfully align the incentives experienced by competitive markets with socially optimum outcomes, and whether markets are competitive in the first place. (not really, and clearly no)
Yields on the 2, the 10 and the 30 all dropped this morning as a result, so that *should* reduce projected borrowing costs, creating more headroom, and reducing the need for tax rises/spending cuts on the 26th. We'll see if that actually happens!
November 11, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Yields on the 2, the 10 and the 30 all dropped this morning as a result, so that *should* reduce projected borrowing costs, creating more headroom, and reducing the need for tax rises/spending cuts on the 26th. We'll see if that actually happens!
Its hard to think of a time when the rich didn't seek to control the media and the politicians. A much more certain bet to simply to buy a politician and a newspaper than stand for office oneself, of course.
November 10, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Its hard to think of a time when the rich didn't seek to control the media and the politicians. A much more certain bet to simply to buy a politician and a newspaper than stand for office oneself, of course.
The weight of evidence seems to suggest that entry into the class of billionaires actually actively selects for a certain single-minded, ruthless, amoral, (lets just call it psychopathic) mindset that isn't really compatible with the expansivity, reflection, and generosity of spirit you allude to.
November 10, 2025 at 10:52 PM
The weight of evidence seems to suggest that entry into the class of billionaires actually actively selects for a certain single-minded, ruthless, amoral, (lets just call it psychopathic) mindset that isn't really compatible with the expansivity, reflection, and generosity of spirit you allude to.
Also I think there's a general observation about income and substitution effects offsetting for investors but compounding for borrowers that this might plausibly be an example of
November 10, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Also I think there's a general observation about income and substitution effects offsetting for investors but compounding for borrowers that this might plausibly be an example of
I guess it's a combination of duration exposure on the mortgage and asymmetric uncertainty?
November 10, 2025 at 8:32 PM
I guess it's a combination of duration exposure on the mortgage and asymmetric uncertainty?
Turns out oligopolists won't just voluntarily increase supply far above the profit maximising level, who could possibly have predicted this outcome
November 10, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Turns out oligopolists won't just voluntarily increase supply far above the profit maximising level, who could possibly have predicted this outcome
Demand is too high, we need more supply to balance things out, I know, let's stimulate demand, that'll help
November 10, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Demand is too high, we need more supply to balance things out, I know, let's stimulate demand, that'll help
Forwards, but in the wrong direction (as I don't think is really up for debate nowadays). Or as we usually call it, backwards
November 10, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Forwards, but in the wrong direction (as I don't think is really up for debate nowadays). Or as we usually call it, backwards
Its prisoners dilemma? Capital owners are rich enough now that they and their families are completely insulated from the impacts of climate change, and the cost to them in terms of higher taxes/reined in consumption habits is not worth the hassle. So they defect rather than cooperate
November 10, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Its prisoners dilemma? Capital owners are rich enough now that they and their families are completely insulated from the impacts of climate change, and the cost to them in terms of higher taxes/reined in consumption habits is not worth the hassle. So they defect rather than cooperate
QTM is essentially that idea, but scaled up to the level of the economy, but in terms of its policy prescriptions it also neglects the role of private institutions in money (credit) creation. So it actually manages to wrong in two separate ways.
November 10, 2025 at 3:59 PM
QTM is essentially that idea, but scaled up to the level of the economy, but in terms of its policy prescriptions it also neglects the role of private institutions in money (credit) creation. So it actually manages to wrong in two separate ways.
The QTM is essentially the idea that there is a perfectly predictable 1-1 relationship between access to credit and spending. So if your bank doubled the credit limit on your credit card, you would automatically spend double the amount. In reality the link between credit and spending is far weaker
November 10, 2025 at 3:55 PM
The QTM is essentially the idea that there is a perfectly predictable 1-1 relationship between access to credit and spending. So if your bank doubled the credit limit on your credit card, you would automatically spend double the amount. In reality the link between credit and spending is far weaker
This is a good summary of the quantity theory of money:
November 10, 2025 at 3:21 PM
This is a good summary of the quantity theory of money:
Friedman: lottery winners will save the majority of their earnings so as to rationally optimise their consumption patterns over their entire lifetime.
Reality:
Reality:
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Friedman: lottery winners will save the majority of their earnings so as to rationally optimise their consumption patterns over their entire lifetime.
Reality:
Reality:
There are dozens of papers that all reach the same entirely predictable conclusion, here's just one example
November 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
There are dozens of papers that all reach the same entirely predictable conclusion, here's just one example