Adam Brown
@adamlbrown.bsky.social
Economist, formerly a physicist. Head of UK Economic Policy & Modelling at Cambridge Econometrics. Visiting Researcher in Innovation Systems at Oxford Brookes. Also interested in cricket, baseball and metal. Displaced Salopian. Vmo
This is a good summary of the quantity theory of money:
November 10, 2025 at 3:21 PM
This is a good summary of the quantity theory of money:
Friedman: lottery winners will save the majority of their earnings so as to rationally optimise their consumption patterns over their entire lifetime.
Reality:
Reality:
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Friedman: lottery winners will save the majority of their earnings so as to rationally optimise their consumption patterns over their entire lifetime.
Reality:
Reality:
There are dozens of papers that all reach the same entirely predictable conclusion, here's just one example
November 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
There are dozens of papers that all reach the same entirely predictable conclusion, here's just one example
This really is a national scandal
November 10, 2025 at 12:17 PM
This really is a national scandal
I think it's more that people are going to be far less willing to accept paying taxes themselves if, once again, you let the billionaires off because they've lobbied you relentlessly. See, eg
November 9, 2025 at 7:26 AM
I think it's more that people are going to be far less willing to accept paying taxes themselves if, once again, you let the billionaires off because they've lobbied you relentlessly. See, eg
Problem is everyday there's another headline like this that undermines all the rest. One rule for the rich etc etc
November 8, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Problem is everyday there's another headline like this that undermines all the rest. One rule for the rich etc etc
This was my suggestion for how to thread a tram through the city centre from a few years ago
November 6, 2025 at 5:05 PM
This was my suggestion for how to thread a tram through the city centre from a few years ago
does it? The ONS report this for a 1-person household on £46,000 gross income and average council tax of £2,100pcm:
November 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
does it? The ONS report this for a 1-person household on £46,000 gross income and average council tax of £2,100pcm:
Actually the threshold (£325,000) at which you are eligible to pay is below the mean wealth level for anyone over 55.
November 6, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Actually the threshold (£325,000) at which you are eligible to pay is below the mean wealth level for anyone over 55.
@katie0martin.ft.com isn't this just a normal side effect of lower inflation/interest rate expectations though?
November 5, 2025 at 1:39 PM
@katie0martin.ft.com isn't this just a normal side effect of lower inflation/interest rate expectations though?
Current UK voting tendencies by characteristic look a bit like this:
November 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Current UK voting tendencies by characteristic look a bit like this:
wtf is going on with the yield curve? Is that just a graphing error in the short end?
November 4, 2025 at 10:21 AM
wtf is going on with the yield curve? Is that just a graphing error in the short end?
I did also find the sheer level of hubris here hilarious. Whilst it's true that it's a waste of talent for recent university graduates to go into finance, it's hardly the thing stopping us saving the world. How much is a 22yo really going to help, no matter how exceptional they consider themselves?
October 18, 2025 at 9:21 AM
I did also find the sheer level of hubris here hilarious. Whilst it's true that it's a waste of talent for recent university graduates to go into finance, it's hardly the thing stopping us saving the world. How much is a 22yo really going to help, no matter how exceptional they consider themselves?
And here is that exact argument being made in today's ft
October 18, 2025 at 8:55 AM
And here is that exact argument being made in today's ft
@sachahilhorst.bsky.social thought you might find this interesting
October 17, 2025 at 5:21 PM
@sachahilhorst.bsky.social thought you might find this interesting
Al though this tells a better story (yikes)
October 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Al though this tells a better story (yikes)
MSCI Index probably the best thing to look at:
October 17, 2025 at 3:00 PM
MSCI Index probably the best thing to look at:
A reminder to economic journalists that the purpose of the entire exercise is to restructure our economy away from consumer services and towards construction and investment; so if the former falls and the latter rises, this is *a good thing*. It is the intended outcome of government economic policy.
October 16, 2025 at 10:35 AM
A reminder to economic journalists that the purpose of the entire exercise is to restructure our economy away from consumer services and towards construction and investment; so if the former falls and the latter rises, this is *a good thing*. It is the intended outcome of government economic policy.
This graph is basically doing what I predicted in 2022: first you get the jump in commodities, then that feeds through to consumer prices, then that feeds through to wages. Real wages and profit margins fall, then catch up again.
October 14, 2025 at 12:56 PM
This graph is basically doing what I predicted in 2022: first you get the jump in commodities, then that feeds through to consumer prices, then that feeds through to wages. Real wages and profit margins fall, then catch up again.
Probably about 30-40% is not unrealistic
October 10, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Probably about 30-40% is not unrealistic
Ah yes, the result of 15 years of Tory education policy is a massive upsurge in parents feeling that the system is now so horrendously dysfunctional they have no other option other than to actually quit work and educate their kids at home themselves
October 9, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Ah yes, the result of 15 years of Tory education policy is a massive upsurge in parents feeling that the system is now so horrendously dysfunctional they have no other option other than to actually quit work and educate their kids at home themselves
Down in that London today at @britishacademy.bsky.social
October 8, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Down in that London today at @britishacademy.bsky.social
This, roughly, is where I actually think the actual parties are right now: Lib Dems and Labour similarly centre-left economically, but Lib Dems more progressive on social issues: Greens substantially more progressive on both measures; Tories and Reform both off in far-right cloud cuckoo land.
October 6, 2025 at 9:41 AM
This, roughly, is where I actually think the actual parties are right now: Lib Dems and Labour similarly centre-left economically, but Lib Dems more progressive on social issues: Greens substantially more progressive on both measures; Tories and Reform both off in far-right cloud cuckoo land.
I've seen more detailed ones, reform lead amongst the unemployed. But here's what I could find in 1 minute. Labour's current voting base is AB economic class
October 2, 2025 at 8:47 AM
I've seen more detailed ones, reform lead amongst the unemployed. But here's what I could find in 1 minute. Labour's current voting base is AB economic class