This is a terrible take. It's the same set of accusations made by libertarian doomers for the last 15 years. They believed them so strongly because they didn't understand what this means. It's the same estimation made for years.

What's worse even is that that dollar price implies 15% or so yield. Performing CCCs are at 10% and have rallied a few hundred basis points since these loans were underwritten, but these can't even get sold near par!

@employamerica.bsky.social is a great resource for macro and micro issues facing the economy, make sure to support them before the end of the year!

Is this sovereign or NFC corporate?

Increasing audits of UHNW taxpayers with new well paid IRS auditors will raise way more revenue.

That doesn't seem like the right interpretation to me. Looking over 3m to avoid hurricane/strike noise, 55+ epop is down by ~half the decline in prime age epop. 16-24 epop is up in the same period.

This is a really good way to put it.

Seems bad!

Reminder: when ECB policymakers now refer to “the more dynamic regions of the euro area” they are talking about Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece.

www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...

Amazing, thanks! The emergence of Reno as an offsetting factor to new build rather than moving in the same direction seems new and interesting, clearly tied to the golden handcuff 2.5% mortgage phenomenon.

This makes the TCJA extension extremely messy. I mean everything could be messy, debt ceiling and CRs too. I wonder if that makes Trump madder and do more tariffs, hammer nail etc.

Where do you pull the renovation spending data? Nonresi renovations also would be interesting given cross currents of office bldg owners underwater vs conversions.

This is reasonable enough but it also feels like it's the easier thing to imagine after the first term, which was full of chaos and "serious not literally." Full tariffs, or and increasing set of demands to undo them, seems underpriced still.